2022 Mid Year Gambling Overview

[BigSteve]

I thought I would make a post about this, as it helped me turn the ship around for the remainder of 2021.
Last year I went from about 14k profit down to my last 1k after 6 months. On average, I lose 1 maybe 2 events a month depending on schedule, so going down to almost even money after half a year of betting was a very tough spot. A big wake-up call was needed, which is why I sat down and assessed what I was doing wrong. The mistakes were addressed and I finished the year on 23k profit. I tried to stick with the same process this year, and despite being up almost 20k after 6 months, mistakes have still been made.

The most consistent mistake that has popped up so far is being influenced by others and forcing bets due to greed or fear of missing out on profit. Now, this is one of the problems I already addressed last year, I trust myself more than anyone on the internet. Although this year I have a small circle of very sharp bettors I trust, @Sadistics , @FimbulFightPicks @Ryan Kelly + others, and when the stars align and I'm the only one that's on the other side of a bet, you kind of feel obliged to take the stab. The other thing is I created Twitter this year to build more of a presence outside of Sherdog. The gambling space on there is pretty shite to be honest, but there are some sharp minds too. The problem is they merge together with their opinions and when all of Twitter is on one side + the odds move in that direction, you legit feel like you are on an island. Barriault, Hooker, Camacho, Cutelaba, McGee are some of the plays I lost, despite taping and feeling like the other side should be a bet. Part of it was getting the early line, so if you cash that line out, and the bet wins, you have a masssivvee case of FOMO and you feel like an idiot being the only one not to cash it. I have been improving this aspect of my betting recently though, cashing out bets on Flores and Rodolfo after tape. I got great early lines on both after one of the boys recommended it to me, but I stuck to my guns, which felt like a win. It wasn't easy though, I was mulling it over for days. It just proves how hard it is to pass and be disciplined. The constant battle of is it worse to miss out on profit and regret it, or take a stab, lose and regret not passing.

The other improvement I noticed was not being braver with my stakes. I have hit a ton of dogs this year, but most are half or quarter units. This comes with the territory when you increase your units and go full-time, according to the great Mr. @Sadistics . It needed to be done so I can pay the bills easier, although I have also improved this a bit towards the end of the 6 months. I try to hit a dog for a minimum half a unit, and look to hedge live when the odds narrow mid-fight. This is a nifty new trick I am a fan of. Did it with Emmet, Viera, Zalgas, and many more. Depending on confidence, I will let it ride.

Finally, you all know I hate over-unders, and I basically stopped playing them due to due losing 10k on them in the first 6 months of 2021. I have let them back into my life this year sparingly, and they aren't doing too bad. But a couple of times I have tilted and played 4u on the Glover/ Jiri U.25 and 3u on Makachev SUB/DEC over Green at what I thought were great odds. I took a risk both times and lost all my profit and more on those cards. I am very careful with over-unders + certain props for a reason, it's never a valid decision to hammer that kind of play for multiple units. A loss of this kind, as you all know by watching the Jiri Glover fight, is more brutal than any other, and I just prefer not to put myself through that. This month was my first losing month of the year, and only by $700. Puts things into perspective when you realize I lost 4k on that one main event under. I have tried my luck twice, I won't be tempted anymore that's for sure.

In conclusion, there are things to iron out still, but there always are. Take back a couple of mistakes here or there and I already smash the 23k profit I made last year. But betting discipline is never perfect, and always needs to be brought back into check. There is no cutting corners. I am still making rookie mistakes here and there, but its mostly when I step out of my process. Stay the course and you will easily profit no matter what. All things considered, I am still happy with this years progress. July should be the month I smash last year's record, and possibly even my all-time profit of 29k from 2020. I am still confident in 50k by the end of the year. I wish good luck to everyone else on this forum, and I hope anyone that has done any sort of review of the last 6 months can benefit and grow as well. Its all about keeping yourself in check.

By the way, if you haven't, please subscribe to 'Big Brain MMA Podcast' on YouTube. I tape every single fight I talk about and pride myself on going deep into research where others might not have the same luxury. Production value will improve with time, but right now me and @FimbulFightPicks are just focused on high-level breakdowns. Means a lot, thanks.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Thanks for the insight dude.

My big improvement personally this year has been note taking rather than taping. I tended to find a bit when taping I'd sometimes find myself going in looking to justify a bet and maybe seeing something which wasn't actually there. I tend to find that looking at notes keeps things simpler, which for me is more effective. If I look at something and think it'll happen, then my notes suggest that it won't, I'm stopping myself from taping and looking for something to convince myself to make the play I liked at initial glance.


I'm also being less scared to put decent money into big dogs if I believe in them. Scored several 3+ dog hits this year on the likes of Daniel Torres and Ricardo Prasel and benefitted from the profits. I do regret chickening out of a couple of bets because other people disagreed though.

 

[benebox]

My problem is over betting and laziness... and it shows this year in my ROI (currently at 8.74% which is really low for me) after a couple of recent bad events. Funnily enough I took a year off while in Bali, only betting confident bets that didn't need taping and my ROI went way up.

Things I will try do differently for the second half is bet more on my confident bets and stop over betting, especially the main event. I should also try put more time into taping fights like I did when I first began and start keeping notes.

Also to anyone who is actually keeping their full profits in bankroll just remember your dollar is devaluing at about 10% a year.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Thanks for the insight dude.

My big improvement personally this year has been note taking rather than taping. I tended to find a bit when taping I'd sometimes find myself going in looking to justify a bet and maybe seeing something which wasn't actually there. I tend to find that looking at notes keeps things simpler, which for me is more effective. If I look at something and think it'll happen, then my notes suggest that it won't, I'm stopping myself from taping and looking for something to convince myself to make the play I liked at initial glance.


I'm also being less scared to put decent money into big dogs if I believe in them. Scored several 3+ dog hits this year on the likes of Daniel Torres and Ricardo Prasel and benefitted from the profits. I do regret chickening out of a couple of bets because other people disagreed though.

I really have to start taking notes. I’ve been saying this for years.

Also should be practicing better unit risk. I’m pretty loose with my $100 units. I had like $1500 all together on bigiboy, probably more on jiri/glover under. So yea, what is a maxbet lol?


I have my own business and work full time for someone else. Also have a two year old and a two month old. Not a lot of spare time on my hands. I think if I started to keep track of my bets and took notes I would have more consistent results

@BigSteve I’ve told you youre a good capper before. Don’t let others influence you too much. I listen to what others have to say for intel basically that I may have missed or an angle I’m not seeing.

and as far as dogs go, you should be betting according to the implied probability/value you’re seeing on the line. Value is value. Don’t marginalize your risk just because it’s a large plus number or the betting public is going the other way

Munhoz is now up to +260 and that’s value for a fight where I don’t even know if I’d cap O’Malley as a slight favorite. So I have like 3+ units on munhoz. If I lose at least I’m losing on a risk where I would be rewarded handsomely had it hit.

It’s really a no brainer and I have no clue why anyone would Be betting o malley at these odds. The guy can’t handle leg kicks and he’s fighting one of the best leg kickers in the game.

betting dogs is going to net you a better roi long term.

I got maycee barber at -190 and -205. I have her capped at -300 range. It’s a strong lean as well and I have like $15-2000 on her. Again sometimes these large plays have come back to bite me, but I’ve been typically hammering value when I see it.

so in short, if I want to take this seriously and consistently profit from event to event and not have wild swings I know what needs to be done

am i disciplined enough to do it? I could probably work less if I wasn’t treating betting as a hobby and looked at it as an investment

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I really have to start taking notes. I’ve been saying this for years.

Also should be practicing better unit risk. I’m pretty lose with my $100 units. I had like $1500 all together on bigiboy, probably more on jiri/glover under. So yea, what is a maxbet lol?

I have my own business and work full time for someone else. Also have a two year old and a two month old. Not a lot of spare time on my hands. I think if I started to keep track of my bets and took notes I would have more consistent results

@BigSteve I’ve told you your a good capper before. Don’t let others influence you too much. I listen to what others have to say for intel basically that I may have missed or an angle I’m not seeing.

and as far as dogs go, you should be betting according to the implied probability/value you’re seeing on the line. Value is value. Don’t marginalize your risk just because it’s a large plus number or the betting public is going the other way

Munhoz is now up to +260 and that’s value for a fight where I don’t even know if I’d cap O’Malley as a slight favorite. So I have like 3+ units on munhoz. If I lose at least I’m losing on a risk where I would be rewarded handsomely had it hit

betting dogs is going to net you a better roi long term.

I got maycee barber at -190 and -205. I have her capped at -300 range. It’s a strong lean as well and I have like $15-2000 on her. Again sometimes these large plays have come back to bite me, but I’ve been typically hammering value when I see it.

Yeah, I wouldn't really have time to go back and tape and keep up with everything anyway and I often find the horribly capped fights are on the regionals, so for me it pays to watch more fights and have a general awareness of fighter skillsets than to go massively in depth on every fight and watch tape on 5-6 fights per fight I want to bet.

Once you get used to it, having a laptop while you're watching it on the TV and just typing out shorthand stuff while you're typing takes little effort and doesn't really impact the fight for me. I can also keep records of how I scored each rounds and how close they were, which I find helps too.

So for example with Gamrot, my notes are only something like this for his last two fights

CDF - Early pressure, throwing heavy kicks to head and body. Great low shot, but couldn't control good scramble. Low shot is excellent. Mainly throwing hands down the pipe, exchanging body kicks. Great blast double, still struggling to control CDF. Able to drive CDF back which some struggle with. Very good scrambling but slightly slower than CDF so unable to control still. Stuck at it, took back against cage and managed to injure rib with a knee for finish.

AT - Good sprawl, defends front headlock well, great single pick up opponent somehow balances. Taken down by excellent level change on leg kick. Good granby a couple of times to get scramble going and gets to back standing. Good at catching kick and lifting for single but opp excellent balance. R1 10-10 Ttying to pressure forward and box, opponent kicking well. Very good TDD. Great effort to use whizzer to try and turn on top but can't hold. Having trouble with some body kicks (very snappy) R2 9-10 Would be getting these singles on most people. Good at chasing back body lock, drags down eventually but opp bounces up. Good balance on one leg. R3 10-9c Tight and discilpined with boxing. Caught with spinning back fist. Good pull through of ankle to chase top. Really pushing a face and coming forward constantly. Just pushes through body kicks to go for takedowns. Very tough. Really pyushing grappling, manages to take back. R4 10-9 Great low entry to double leg. Insane cardio to grapple like this for 5. R5 10-9 (49-47)

but it gives me something to work from (as you can tell I don't go back and correct typos lol).

 

[Guld]

I took a big break after Gane and Ngannou, and only recently got back in to it.
I'm doing a lot better now! (both in MMA and other sports)
By far and away my biggest problem was/is getting greedy or trying to mitigate my losses. In either case I would be putting far too large of bets with far too low a chance of a decent return. All it takes is 1-2 of those to go south and then it would take me weeks to undo the damage done.
Since I've returned I caught myself doing it a couple of times, but overall I'm far more disciplined and content with how things are going.

And I agree with what Steve says. A lot of times I find my initial read on a fight to be pretty much spot on, and then I let others influence my reasoning. Don't get me wrong, sometimes I'll change who I'm betting on seconds before the fight starts, but I find that I do a lot better when I just trust my own analysis and avoid following the narrative/influence that somebody else has provided.

I've only been "back" for a couple of months now. I started strong, lost a big chunk on basketball, and have very steadily climbed my way back to a 50% profit in a couple of months.

Hoping I can keep this going for the rest of the year. (World Cup has been good to me the last 4 times, so hopefully I can make it a 5th haha)

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

I´ve always enjoyed these yearly reviews ever since the great EZflyer did these, there´s been a lot of great information. Learning from others is one of the greatest ways to learning something fast, it´s like a shortcut.

What an excellent idea by the my incredible sharp friend @BigSteve to do a 6 month review as well. A lot of great lessons in this thread already. If people ain´t listening to what Bigsteve says, I can only recommend it, one of the absolute sharpest dudes around, its incredible how much we think we a like. And we both share our disdain for total props. (over unders). Besides this thread i recommend reading through the old ones as my very good friend @Sadistics has posted some excellent yearly reviews, no need to mention who he is as he is a myth and a legend on these forums and the GOAT in my humble opinion.

Thank you to @Guld for sharing. I fully agree with what you´ve written about trusting your own reads, your first initial read (which hasn´t been affected by others, biases, doubt, fear, greed etc). What you said about it´d only take 1-2 losses before it´d take you weeks to undo the damage, that is exactly the issue with big favorites, and also for me personally. Lots of solid favorite bets, but too many bad ones. Big favs seems to really require mismatches. You need reliable fighters with a lot of skill with low chances of any flukes happening. And you need to not just be right, but consider judges etc. Look at if you had bet Kattar -250, then Arman -250. Thats now 5 of those bets you need to win in a row just to be break even. This becomes nearly impossible as time goes on. You really gotta pick your spots. But favs gives a false sense of security. Personally im down on big favs, but managed to be up on small favs which used to be my worst category and which most people lose on. But i need to step up my game for big favs, do the same changes i did for small favs but where i only bet completely lopsided matches, like I just did with Jindrova vs some soccer mum.

@Hellowhosthat I agree, I used to stop a fight, then take notes, but these days I let the fight run while making notes, and if a TD or KD happens or anything of interest I´ll just go back to see exactly happened. I think there is a fine balance to in-depth vs general awareness. Personally now I like to go in-depth, to get that general awareness, but you can also become too focus on skill set, like recently my bets have been a lot worse due to my focus on skills and i completely missed physique, aggression and x factors. I now try to tape, and step back, let my subconsciousness work with the data. I use a tape guide where i fill out notes answering questions. So i later on got a great overview of fighters. But after reading what you said here, i will also do what i once did and that is to give an overall quick summary - as its often not one special skill that matters but the overall picture, including the mentality of the fighters. I.e are they game or do they have quitter vibes?

@Captain Chesapeake Spot on about the dogs net you a bigger ROI long-term. Most seem to bet 3-4u on a fav no problem, but the same on a +200 dog? No way 0.5u max.The irony is most people would have done far better doing the opposite. Bet small on a fav? that seems odd, while betting big on a dog? But you can definitely do it, or bet just as big as the fav. As long as its not some +2000 prop you only cap at +500 then definitely you can go several units. Its hard, but this is where i think tracking a bit can help, or just write down some dogs you cashed, remind yourself.
Another good way I´ve found is, lets say you wanna bet a +150 dog, compare it to other +150 dogs on the card, or old bets - how do you feel? how strongly do you feel about this bet?
The same can be done for a -250 fav, remember back to a -250 fav you liked a lot, is this the same feeling? Or is it forced? I think comparisons help, at least for me. Congratz on your kids btw, its seriously impressive to be able to win on betting while working, and having kids. Nothing but respect for that.

@benebox Great point about that the money is devaluing each year. I´ve started to invest in stocks/crypto with around 50% of my betting BR. This way I find we can maximize growth while still having enough to bet with. Whenever stocks go up "just cashed 2 units more" - its fun and a great feeling. Just have to invest safely, no huge risks there for me. Its funny how we´d made more by just going with gut bets instead of overbetting. Im only up 16u now pre bet and 10u live bet for the year. I could have cashed that in a just a few insanely good dogs this year. I´d been up double if i had stopped betting since march. We always think a bet has value, and yes more bets = likely a good chance we´ll be more profitable as long as we got an edge, so that edge can show it self...but do we really got an edge? Ive now done a review, and ive definitely made some very bad bets, a huge change for me is incoming. And im ready to lay big on the bets i feel strongly about. Sometiems it can help to think. 1u on 3 bets? or would it be better to have those 3u on one bet. May feel scary but i think many would find they´d do better by just taking that one really good bet. Instead of having FOMO (fear of missing out).

Changes I expect from myself going forward after reviewing my results:
- Keep track of my reads, and be honest if i feel i dont got a read after research. No read - lean - strong read.
- Do the same as above but include if i find value on the line. Helps me identify good bets.
- Start trusting my reads when I feel I got a read on how sharps think. Max vs Volk 2 reminded me of Zhang vs JJ 2, which reminded me of Fig vs Ben 2. People thinking "oh even more value" due to just improved odds, or due to nostalgia, or them revenge betting.

I´ve noticed this thing, revenge betting. I honestly truly feel like people revenge bet. As weird as it sounds. Like Lawler vs Barberena felt like Brown bettors who were mad they lost. Or like I wanted to fade Garry but ended up betting Ian Garry- and I felt a lot of Green bettors just wanted to show how much Garry sucks. I even see sharps be emotional, angry, and force things.

Keep doing my research even though its hell. Long-term it will pay off. I find I have better reads on returning fighters than fighters i just finished research for. Like Tafon/Ulberg, i really like Tafon the tank, I´m super low on Ulberg, but when I heard of the fight I thought Ulberg good matchup. No research but i had once taped Tafon in-depth.
Another example is Barber, I once faded Barber with Roxy +700, and with Grasso - Immature bratty school girl. I like MDLR, but when that matchup was made I thought thats a really bad matchup for MDLR. And thats saying something, when you dont like a fighter yet you wanna bet on them.
I think a lot of our research have to settled, connect the dots, - i´m a huge intuition guy, as i´m an INFJ, and I often have the best read on gut instinct. Research helps - but my goal is to have so many notes i just need a quick refresh on returning fighters, and then i want to focus on NON-UFC. As I believe the regionals wills grow, more volume, more fights etc.

- Keep my close circle. More and more I don't care about ufc promotions, I don't care for fancy podcasts or twitter banter or listening to 100 different opinions as everyone can be right/wrong on a given day- i care for a few peoples opinions, late in the week - I have admitted to myself i love the confirmation bias but its risky. What I do want is specialists, each person in my close group has a purpose to me. Each one provides value one way or the other.
- Keep doing my podcast even if it would have 0 viewers - as it helps me do things well. To truly work - I love giving in-depth breakdowns, but most just want quick breakdowns. But thats okay. I will still do me. I love going in-depth. Even if its info irrelevant to this specific matchup. This is probably also why most people who enjoys listening are highly analytical and often sharp bettors themselves already or at least appreciates the technicalities of MMA.

- One last thing is I think I´ve found a way to beat the anchor bias. Like when Damon Jackson vs Kamuela Kirk I missed the +130 odds, and at -110 I passed. But then I found a way to beat the anchor bias. I imagined "What if -110 had been the opener? Would I had bet it? Oh hell yeah!"- So if you miss a good line, try to imagine this is the best line - it helps you avoid the anchor bias.
I love we can keep getting better at this.

Thank you each and everyone who contributes to this forum, I don´t write much here but I truly appreciate this forum.
I wish everyone a profitable second half of 2022.

Fimbul

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I´ve always enjoyed these yearly reviews ever since the great EZflyer did these, there´s been a lot of great information. Learning from others is one of the greatest ways to learning something fast, it´s like a shortcut.

What an excellent idea by the my incredible sharp friend @BigSteve to do a 6 month review as well. A lot of great lessons in this thread already. If people ain´t listening to what Bigsteve says, I can only recommend it, one of the absolute sharpest dudes around, its incredible how much we think we a like. And we both share our disdain for total props. (over unders). Besides this thread i recommend reading through the old ones as my very good friend @Sadistics has posted some excellent yearly reviews, no need to mention who he is as he is a myth and a legend on these forums and the GOAT in my humble opinion.

Thank you to @Guld for sharing. I fully agree with what you´ve written about trusting your own reads, your first initial read (which hasn´t been affected by others, biases, doubt, fear, greed etc). What you said about it´d only take 1-2 losses before it´d take you weeks to undo the damage, that is exactly the issue with big favorites, and also for me personally. Lots of solid favorite bets, but too many bad ones. Big favs seems to really require mismatches. You need reliable fighters with a lot of skill with low chances of any flukes happening. And you need to not just be right, but consider judges etc. Look at if you had bet Kattar -250, then Arman -250. Thats now 5 of those bets you need to win in a row just to be break even. This becomes nearly impossible as time goes on. You really gotta pick your spots. But favs gives a false sense of security. Personally im down on big favs, but managed to be up on small favs which used to be my worst category and which most people lose on. But i need to step up my game for big favs, do the same changes i did for small favs but where i only bet completely lopsided matches, like I just did with Jindrova vs some soccer mum.

@Hellowhosthat I agree, I used to stop a fight, then take notes, but these days I let the fight run while making notes, and if a TD or KD happens or anything of interest I´ll just go back to see exactly happened. I think there is a fine balance to in-depth vs general awareness. Personally now I like to go in-depth, to get that general awareness, but you can also become too focus on skill set, like recently my bets have been a lot worse due to my focus on skills and i completely missed physique, aggression and x factors. I now try to tape, and step back, let my subconsciousness work with the data. I use a tape guide where i fill out notes answering questions. So i later on got a great overview of fighters. But after reading what you said here, i will also do what i once did and that is to give an overall quick summary - as its often not one special skill that matters but the overall picture, including the mentality of the fighters. I.e are they game or do they have quitter vibes?

@Captain Chesapeake Spot on about the dogs net you a bigger ROI long-term. Most seem to bet 3-4u on a fav no problem, but the same on a +200 dog? No way 0.5u max.The irony is most people would have done far better doing the opposite. Bet small on a fav? that seems odd, while betting big on a dog? But you can definitely do it, or bet just as big as the fav. As long as its not some +2000 prop you only cap at +500 then definitely you can go several units. Its hard, but this is where i think tracking a bit can help, or just write down some dogs you cashed, remind yourself.
Another good way I´ve found is, lets say you wanna bet a +150 dog, compare it to other +150 dogs on the card, or old bets - how do you feel? how strongly do you feel about this bet?
The same can be done for a -250 fav, remember back to a -250 fav you liked a lot, is this the same feeling? Or is it forced? I think comparisons help, at least for me. Congratz on your kids btw, its seriously impressive to be able to win on betting while working, and having kids. Nothing but respect for that.

@benebox Great point about that the money is devaluing each year. I´ve started to invest in stocks/crypto with around 50% of my betting BR. This way I find we can maximize growth while still having enough to bet with. Whenever stocks go up "just cashed 2 units more" - its fun and a great feeling. Just have to invest safely, no huge risks there for me. Its funny how we´d made more by just going with gut bets instead of overbetting. Im only up 16u now pre bet and 10u live bet for the year. I could have cashed that in a just a few insanely good dogs this year. I´d been up double if i had stopped betting since march. We always think a bet has value, and yes more bets = likely a good chance we´ll be more profitable as long as we got an edge, so that edge can show it self...but do we really got an edge? Ive now done a review, and ive definitely made some very bad bets, a huge change for me is incoming. And im ready to lay big on the bets i feel strongly about. Sometiems it can help to think. 1u on 3 bets? or would it be better to have those 3u on one bet. May feel scary but i think many would find they´d do better by just taking that one really good bet. Instead of having FOMO (fear of missing out).

Changes I expect from myself going forward after reviewing my results:
- Keep track of my reads, and be honest if i feel i dont got a read after research. No read - lean - strong read.
- Do the same as above but include if i find value on the line. Helps me identify good bets.
- Start trusting my reads when I feel I got a read on how sharps think. Max vs Volk 2 reminded me of Zhang vs JJ 2, which reminded me of Fig vs Ben 2. People thinking "oh even more value" due to just improved odds, or due to nostalgia, or them revenge betting.

I´ve noticed this thing, revenge betting. I honestly truly feel like people revenge bet. As weird as it sounds. Like Lawler vs Barberena felt like Brown bettors who were mad they lost. Or like I wanted to fade Garry but ended up betting Ian Garry- and I felt a lot of Green bettors just wanted to show how much Garry sucks. I even see sharps be emotional, angry, and force things.

Keep doing my research even though its hell. Long-term it will pay off. I find I have better reads on returning fighters than fighters i just finished research for. Like Tafon/Ulberg, i really like Tafon the tank, I´m super low on Ulberg, but when I heard of the fight I thought Ulberg good matchup. No research but i had once taped Tafon in-depth.
Another example is Barber, I once faded Barber with Roxy +700, and with Grasso - Immature bratty school girl. I like MDLR, but when that matchup was made I thought thats a really bad matchup for MDLR. And thats saying something, when you dont like a fighter yet you wanna bet on them.
I think a lot of our research have to settled, connect the dots, - i´m a huge intuition guy, as i´m an INFJ, and I often have the best read on gut instinct. Research helps - but my goal is to have so many notes i just need a quick refresh on returning fighters, and then i want to focus on NON-UFC. As I believe the regionals wills grow, more volume, more fights etc.

- Keep my close circle. More and more I dont care about ufc promotions, i dont care for fancy podcasts or twitter banter or listening to 100 different opinions as eveyrone can be right/wrong on a given day- i care for a few peoples opinions, late in the week - I have admitted to myself i love the confirmation bias but its risky. What I do want is specialists, each person in my close group has a purpose to me. Each one provides value one way or the other.
- Keep doing my podcast even if it would have 0 viewers - as it helps me do things well. To truly work - I love giving in-depth breakdowns, but most just want quick breakdowns. But thats okay. I will still do me. I love going in-depth. Even if its info irrelevant to this specific matchup. This is probably also why most people who enjoys listening are highly analytical and often sharp bettors themselves already or at least appreciates the technicalities of MMA.

- One last thing is I think I´ve found a way to beat the anchor bias. Like when Damon Jackson vs Kamuela Kirk I missed the +130 odds, and at -110 I passed. But then I found a way to beat the anchor bias. I imagined "What if -110 had been the opener? Would I had bet it? Oh hell yeah!"- So if you miss a good line, try to imagine this is the best line - it helps you avoid the anchor bias.
I love we can keep getting better at this.

Thank you each and everyone who contributes to this forum, I don´t write much here but I truly appreciate this forum.
Hope everyone a profitable second half of 2022.

Fimbul

Personally I think the best way to handle how much you bet is to price up the fight yourself and then look at the difference. If I think two fighters should be around a similar figure then it doesn't make sense to me to bet more on the one who's the favourite than the dog just because they're a favourite.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Personally I think the best way to handle how much you bet is to price up the fight yourself and then look at the difference. If I think two fighters should be around a similar figure then it doesn't make sense to me to bet more on the one who's the favourite than the dog just because they're a favourite.

Oh ye if you think i.e both fighters have like 70% chance to win and one is a fav already and one is a dog - Yeah definitely. Or in that case maybe even a bigger bet on the dog.

 

[guesswhoseback]

No idea how much I am up overall but I am up prob about 15k overall I'm not a unit bettor because since I live in vegas I'm not willing to deposit 10k for 100$ units which seems to be the avg on here

 

[guesswhoseback]

I took a big break after Gane and Ngannou, and only recently got back in to it.
I'm doing a lot better now! (both in MMA and other sports)
By far and away my biggest problem was/is getting greedy or trying to mitigate my losses. In either case I would be putting far too large of bets with far too low a chance of a decent return. All it takes is 1-2 of those to go south and then it would take me weeks to undo the damage done.
Since I've returned I caught myself doing it a couple of times, but overall I'm far more disciplined and content with how things are going.

And I agree with what Steve says. A lot of times I find my initial read on a fight to be pretty much spot on, and then I let others influence my reasoning. Don't get me wrong, sometimes I'll change who I'm betting on seconds before the fight starts, but I find that I do a lot better when I just trust my own analysis and avoid following the narrative/influence that somebody else has provided.

I've only been "back" for a couple of months now. I started strong, lost a big chunk on basketball, and have very steadily climbed my way back to a 50% profit in a couple of months.

Hoping I can keep this going for the rest of the year. (World Cup has been good to me the last 4 times, so hopefully I can make it a 5th haha)

Bet ur entire life savings on Iran to win the world cup if your life savings is only a dollar go pawn everything u own no way they dont win

 

[BigSteve]

Let's keep the 2023 half-year overview in the same forum. I feel like this overview will be one of the more positive ones. At the end of 2022, the improvements were:
- Lost a ton of cash on sloppiness, keep it simple, trust the process.
- Trust the gut, it goes off for a reason.
- Take advantage of live betting more
- Fewer sprinkles, more selective confident bets. No FOMO.

After 6 months:
+30,097 = 1.5k units since March.

Early in the year I was quite influenced by my bets and scared with my money. I blame it on the New Year and the holiday period. Bit silly considering my end-of-2022 goal was to avoid that. I was giving away tons of money on the UFC to start the cards, and I would chase my way to profit with Live bets on Rocky + Strickland on the first card along with Ige and Ige finish bombs. On the second card, I buried myself with Olivera juice over Marcos ( influenced badly again ) and got myself out with Walker and the Hulk under as well as Hulk round 1 KO at 10.00. Not the style of betting I like. I fixed these things as time went on and upped my units to 1.5k in March. The most tilting period in years proceeded to happen end of March through April. It started with the card where I was robbed on Garbriel Santos/ Murphy fight and I also live bet Dolidze half way trough the third. Forced a horrible juiced bet on Fiziev. Horrible bet on Yan where I had a ton of CLV although didn't see much value. Forced about 2.5k on him anyway. The worst thing is I made 3k live betting that card on Victor Henry, Davey Grant and Martinez over Nurma, yet the forced pre-bets killed me. Few bad and unlucky live bets on Chiddi, Andrea Lee,Salvador, McCourt and Nallo. I'm used to smashing live betting so that was rough. March was my first and only losing month of the year. I usually lose one on average although that one felt like I gave it to the bookies way too easy.

Started April with a clanger Bellator card where I only won the main event bet on my boy James. Losing PFL event right after with some forced bets. At this point I was max tilt and I took a break from taping for two days. I started taping the PPV card on Wednesday and bounced back with 2.8k profit on Izzy Perreira II. I rely on my gut a lot, and if I ever get this level of tilt the only way to recover is to take a cold turkey break for days and refresh. Ended April with a 3.6k profit on the Song/Simon card. Rest of the year has been solid, minus my worst betting card on KSW which was 3.1k. I bounced back the same day on the UFC with 3.8k profit. I need to take it easy on the regionals and stick to highly confident bets. In the UFC when I have a ton of bets I usually kill it. Regional fighters are a bit more unpredictable. May and June have been some of the worst UFC betting cards. Either that or I'm even more disciplined than usual. I have been having decent profit going in with minimal pre-bets and betting my leans on fight day as well as live betting. I started a Discord few months ago and there are some sharp dudes in there that help when it comes to throwing around last-minute bets. I have also been taking advantage of TD props and same game parlays on one of my Aussie bookies. Soon as I became more sloppy I lost 900 and 1,4k on the last two UFC events which were easily profitable. I was about 750 away 30k profit, which I made by hitting two Fury FC dogs. I am looking forward to betting on more regional promotions for the first time. I have become better at taping less this year which is essential with so many promotions.

My monthly profits have been average. The best results were 6.2u and 6.3u for 14 or so events per month. Tons of room for improvement. Less quarter unit shots, I plan on making the smallest bet 500 which is a third of a unit. Currently on track for 60k profit worst case which isn't bad, although I was aiming for much higher. Good luck to everyone for the rest of the year. Discord link if any more people from the forum want to join, there is a bunch of Sherbros in there: http://launchpass.com/big-brain/bets.

 

[johno]

Let's keep the 2023 half-year overview in the same forum. I feel like this overview will be one of the more positive ones. At the end of 2022, the improvements were:
- Lost a ton of cash on sloppiness, keep it simple, trust the process.
- Trust the gut, it goes off for a reason.
- Take advantage of live betting more
- Fewer sprinkles, more selective confident bets. No FOMO.

After 6 months:
+30,097 = 1.5k units since March.

Early in the year I was quite influenced by my bets and scared with my money. I blame it on the New Year and the holiday period. Bit silly considering my end-of-2022 goal was to avoid that. I was giving away tons of money on the UFC to start the cards, and I would chase my way to profit with Live bets on Rocky + Strickland on the first card along with Ige and Ige finish bombs. On the second card, I buried myself with Olivera juice over Marcos ( influenced badly again ) and got myself out with Walker and the Hulk under as well as Hulk round 1 KO at 10.00. Not the style of betting I like. I fixed these things as time went on and upped my units to 1.5k in March. The most tilting period in years proceeded to happen end of March through April. It started with the card where I was robbed on Garbriel Santos/ Murphy fight and I also live bet Dolidze half way trough the third. Forced a horrible juiced bet on Fiziev. Horrible bet on Yan where I had a ton of CLV although didn't see much value. Forced about 2.5k on him anyway. The worst thing is I made 3k live betting that card on Victor Henry, Davey Grant and Martinez over Nurma, yet the forced pre-bets killed me. Few bad and unlucky live bets on Chiddi, Andrea Lee,Salvador, McCourt and Nallo. I'm used to smashing live betting so that was rough. March was my first and only losing month of the year. I usually lose one on average although that one felt like I gave it to the bookies way too easy.

Started April with a clanger Bellator card where I only won the main event bet on my boy James. Losing PFL event right after with some forced bets. At this point I was max tilt and I took a break from taping for two days. I started taping the PPV card on Wednesday and bounced back with 2.8k profit on Izzy Perreira II. I rely on my gut a lot, and if I ever get this level of tilt the only way to recover is to take a cold turkey break for days and refresh. Ended April with a 3.6k profit on the Song/Simon card. Rest of the year has been solid, minus my worst betting card on KSW which was 3.1k. I bounced back the same day on the UFC with 3.8k profit. I need to take it easy on the regionals and stick to highly confident bets. In the UFC when I have a ton of bets I usually kill it. Regional fighters are a bit more unpredictable. May and June have been some of the worst UFC betting cards. Either that or I'm even more disciplined than usual. I have been having decent profit going in with minimal pre-bets and betting my leans on fight day as well as live betting. I started a Discord few months ago and there are some sharp dudes in there that help when it comes to throwing around last-minute bets. I have also been taking advantage of TD props and same game parlays on one of my Aussie bookies. Soon as I became more sloppy I lost 900 and 1,4k on the last two UFC events which were easily profitable. I was about 750 away 30k profit, which I made by hitting two Fury FC dogs. I am looking forward to betting on more regional promotions for the first time. I have become better at taping less this year which is essential with so many promotions.

My monthly profits have been average. The best results were 6.2u and 6.3u for 14 or so events per month. Tons of room for improvement. Less quarter unit shots, I plan on making the smallest bet 500 which is a third of a unit. Currently on track for 60k profit worst case which isn't bad, although I was aiming for much higher. Good luck to everyone for the rest of the year. Discord link if any more people from the forum want to join, there is a bunch of Sherbros in there: http://launchpass.com/big-brain/bets.

Hey mate,
Fellow Aussie here, always look forward to the breakdowns and analysis from you.
I don't necessarily tail but I do take into account your perspective of matchups.
I feel it helps immensely to have the perspective of other well travelled MMA enthusiasts. I used to watch many cappers do breakdowns but have since condensed my list down to a select few who bring a wealth of value to the table.
Keep up the good work brother!

 

[BigSteve]

Hey mate,
Fellow Aussie here, always look forward to the breakdowns and analysis from you.
I don't necessarily tail but I do take into account your perspective of matchups.
I feel it helps immensely to have the perspective of other well travelled MMA enthusiasts. I used to watch many cappers do breakdowns but have since condensed my list down to a select few who bring a wealth of value to the table.
Keep up the good work brother!

Hey Johno appreciates the kind words.
Don't have a big circle of Aussies when it comes to gambling always good to find
someone else that does it.
100% a good network is everything. And a strong mind to not be influenced against your own gut.
You also cant be ignorant or stubborn thinking you know everything.
A small circle you trust is the best way to go.
Likewise brother.

 

[EndlessCritic]

One thing you haven't mentioned is hammering opening lines. I got a ton of value a decade ago by setting alerts on bestfightodds, and when the line was released, it was often clearly off.

But yes, trusting your gut is the way to go. Even though it's clear I don't have the same edge I used to .

 

[BigSteve]

One thing you haven't mentioned is hammering opening lines. I got a ton of value a decade ago by setting alerts on bestfightodds, and when the line was released, it was often clearly off.

But yes, trusting your gut is the way to go. Even though it's clear I don't have the same edge I used to .

I am in Australia man, smashing opening lines was impossible. Even Bet365 and well-known books open up late here. Plus at 1.5k units i cant really smash it for much. Bit better now with limits on BO. All power to anyone who does though all about making cash.