Elections 2020 Democratic Primary Thread: Inslee and Hickenlooper out

2019 WR Democratic Straw Poll (Pick Up to 3)

  • John Delaney (US Congressman MD)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Jay Islee (Former Governor WA)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Marianne Williamson (Entrepreneur)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Wayne Messam (Mayor Miramar, FL)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Michael Bennet (Senator CO) *Hasn't decided yet*

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Bill DeBlasio (Mayor New York, NY) *Hasn't decided yet*

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other (Please Post)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    87
  • Poll closed .
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https://thehill.com/homenews/campai...lling-badly-three-way-tie-for-democratic-lead

A single poll but a very interesting poll.

"Joe Biden's support in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is slipping, according to a new survey from Monmouth University Poll that shows the former vice president dropping below 20 percent.

The survey showed Biden with support from 19 percent of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters nationally, a double-digit decline from Monmouth's most recent poll in June when he led the pack with 32 percent.


Now, the dynamics have changed, according to the Monmouth survey. Sens. Bernie Sanders
sandersbernie_052317gn2_lead.jpg
Bernie SandersHill.TV Exclusive: Bernie Sanders goes in on Mitch McConnellThe Hill's Morning Report - Trump says US-China trade talks to resume, hails potential trade with Japan, UKThe Memo: Democratic field boils down to four-horse raceMORE (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren
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Elizabeth Ann WarrenThe Hill's Morning Report - Trump says US-China trade talks to resume, hails potential trade with Japan, UKThe Memo: Democratic field boils down to four-horse raceWarren says 15,000 attended her Seattle rally MORE (D-Mass.), the primary field’s top progressive candidates, are each at 20 percent, putting them in a statistical tie with Biden and indicating a tightening three-way race.

Sen. Kamala Harris
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Kamala Devi HarrisThe Memo: Democratic field boils down to four-horse raceForeign policy setbacks cloud Trump 2020 pitchTrump again lashes out at Fox News: 'Not what it used to be'MORE (D-Calif.) was a distant fourth in Monday's poll, with 8 percent. Her level of support was unchanged from Monmouth's June survey.

South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg
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Peter (Pete) Paul ButtigiegThe Memo: Democratic field boils down to four-horse raceButtigieg pushes back on claims of stalling campaign: We've 'exceeded every expectation'Sunday shows preview: Trump ratchets up trade war with ChinaMORE, who has registered among the top contenders in polls for months, is now tied for fifth place with Sen. Cory Booker
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Cory Anthony BookerThe Memo: Democratic field boils down to four-horse raceSteyer calls on DNC to expand polling criteria for debatesGabbard hits DNC over poll criteria for debatesMORE (D-N.J.) at 4 percent.

Only four other candidates — former tech executive Andrew Yang
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Andrew YangYang climate plan heavily relies on entrepreneurship, nuclearSanders, Warren back major shift to fight drug overdosesObama reveals his summer playlistMORE, former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Texas) and bestselling author Marianne Williamson
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Marianne WilliamsonMarianne Williamson on Trump: We have a little bit of a 'mad King George' in chargeDemocratic candidates face hard choices as 2020 field winnowsThe Hill's Campaign Report: Democratic field begins to shrink ahead of critical stretchMORE — garnered support form more than 1 percent of respondents in the poll.

Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said the latest survey results suggest the race for the Democratic nomination is entering a new phase.

“The main takeaway from this poll is that the Democratic race has become volatile,” Murray said. “Liberal voters are starting to cast about for a candidate they can identify with. Moderate voters, who have been paying less attention, seem to be expressing doubts about Biden.”

But instead of gravitating toward a lesser-known but more centrist-minded alternative, moderate voters “are swinging more toward one of the left-leaning contenders with high name recognition.”

Indeed, Biden has lost support among Democrats who identify as either moderate or conservative. In June, roughly 40 percent of those voters said they backed Biden’s bid for the nomination. Since then, that number has dropped to 22 percent.

There are signs that moderate and conservative Democrats are beginning to gravitate toward Sanders and Warren. Sanders saw his support among those voters jump from 10 percent to 20 percent over the past two months, while backing for Warren rose from 6 percent to 16 percent.

Since June, both Sanders and Warren have gained support overall, according to the Monmouth poll. Sanders gained 6 points in the latest survey, while Warren picked up 5 points.

At the same time, Warren has seen a noticeable uptick in favorability, climbing from 60 percent in May to 65 percent in August. Biden, on the other hand, saw his favorability drop from 74 percent to 66 percent during the same time period.

The Monmouth University Poll surveyed 298 registered voters who identify as Democrats or Democratic-leaning from Aug. 16-20. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points."
 
A poll of 298 people is a pretty small sample size.
 
Huge if true



In my non-expert opinion, it's hard to imagine the GOP losing the Senate. They'll lose Colorado, maybe lose Arizona, and likely recapture Alabama. For the Dems to take control, they'd also need to take Maine (where Collins is sure to rack in millions in dark money), North Carolina, and Iowa.

That's a hell of a stars aligning type of scenario for a party that couldn't even beat Rick Scott in Florida.
 
In my non-expert opinion, it's hard to imagine the GOP losing the Senate. They'll lose Colorado, maybe lose Arizona, and likely recapture Alabama. For the Dems to take control, they'd also need to take Maine (where Collins is sure to rack in millions in dark money), North Carolina, and Iowa.

That's a hell of a stars aligning type of scenario for a party that couldn't even beat Rick Scott in Florida.

Agreed that it's unlikely but it was kind of odd for Mitch to write that piece out of no where.

A retired admiral just announced he's going after Ernst in Iowa, and I think Collins is really vulnerable.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...ral-democratic-primary-candidates/2099469001/
 
Agreed that it's unlikely but it was kind of odd for Mitch to write that piece out of no where.

A retired admiral just announced he's going after Ernst in Iowa, and I think Collins is really vulnerable.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/s...ral-democratic-primary-candidates/2099469001/

Personally, I've already donated twice to her challenger. But Collins is a fucking snake and she'll leverage her "I'm just a reasonable moderate in these turbulent times" shtick.
 
l28u8pyhysi31.jpg


The Washington Post is a good publication.

There's a section of news publications called "opinion" where different individual editors or the group puts together an article:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/

Sander's climate proposal is the best way forward is an opinion article by James Downie
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...rs-gets-others-dont-about-our-climate-debate/

Bernie Sander's climate plan will take us nowhere is an opion article by the editorial board (The Post's View)
Bernie Sanders’s climate plan will take us nowhere
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...e9-b5e4-54aa56d5b7ce_story.html?noredirect=on

I'm surprised you never noticed these. They are on almost any notable news site:
https://www.nytimes.com/section/opinion
https://www.cnn.com/opinions
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion
https://www.politico.com/magazine/tag/opinion
 
900 year old man can't box. Not Presidential material.
 
Why kind of dweeb grows up in Brooklyn and doesn't know how to throw hands?

What kind of gimp doesn't realize that a speed bag swings back after hitting it?

Add physics to the list of classes Bernie didn't attend along with economics
 
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