2017 Recap & Analytics

[EzFlyer]

I'll make a big post myself at some point in the next couple days

this is a free-for-all, judgment-free zone of talking about successes, failures

maybe it will help people make improvements or help others with things that work for you, etc.

It will also help you understand your own successes and failures if you take the time and have the information.

so yea, go nuts.

2016 year end thread: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/2016-recap-analytics.3438971/

 

[Papi]

2017 is my first year betting mma. Been a crazy year!!! Ive learned so much and i keep learning!! My biggest regret is i went 15u on chandler to beat primus that one still hurts. Never laying juice like that again regardless of how confident i am..i think my biggest up was i was on tilt on the mark hunt vs black beast fight and i had a few too many beers with my buddies. And i went almost 20u on mark hunt ml at +140 it was dumb it retrospect but man it made the fight so exciting lol..good memories overall im up close to 35u for the year. I know thats not impressive for a lot of the guys around here. But for my first year betting ill take it. Fun year overall. Happy new years guys lets kill it in 2018!!!

Edit: also a very low point for me for a different reason was the gavin tucker vs glenn i thought i had such a good read for that fight. I was on tucker for 5u and for him to get dominated the way he did it made me question everything i knew about the sport lol

 

[Gugabe]

107.13u profit on my tips in the last 8~ months, or atleast since Gus-Glover. I think I've been doing pretty well for myself, but do tend to lean on underdogs and finish-props that can be punishing when cards become decision-fests. Not the best way to end the year, but these things do happen in MMA. I've managed to average about +2.53u a card since starting to sell tips, with a record of 2-3 but I think that I can maintain a 10-15% ROI into the future.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Im done with betting, I dont know what happened... to many loses, didnt won since september. I have to take a break.

 

[Rapidryan88]

Im done with betting, I dont know what happened... to many loses, didnt won since september. I have to take a break.

Forget the big parlays bro, do singles doubles and trebles. Much easier.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Forget the big parlays bro, do singles doubles and trebles. Much easier.

Even my trebles got fucked up, I dont know man... Im done I think
Its sad because I thought I got knowledge about this sport but Im nothing special at all

 

[Rapidryan88]

Even my trebles got fucked up, I dont know man... Im done I think
Its sad because I thought I got knowledge about this sport but Im nothing special at all

Dw bud just learn from it. Take a different approach maybe, some dogs you’re very keen on in your parlays that don’t justify the confidence imo like you should never have parlayed holm.
Don’t worry take some time off come back with a cool head brother

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Dw bud just learn from it. Take a different approach maybe, some dogs you’re very keen on in your parlays that don’t justify the confidence imo like you should never have parlayed holm.
Don’t worry take some time off come back with a cool head brother

Happy new year my friend !

 

[EzFlyer]

Im done with betting, I dont know what happened... to many loses, didnt won since september. I have to take a break.

Even my trebles got fucked up, I dont know man... Im done I think
Its sad because I thought I got knowledge about this sport but Im nothing special at all

The key to this game is bankroll management, man.. finding a long term strategy that works.. be adaptable and don't get cocky on picks

Taking a break (or stopping altogether) are always an option. It's a mature option in lots of cases. But if you love this sport and can stay objective, there is money to be made. It takes time to figure it all out

 

[Wiktoruspro]

The key to this game is bankroll management, man.. finding a long term strategy that works.. be adaptable and don't get cocky on picks

Taking a break (or stopping altogether) are always an option. It's a mature option in lots of cases. But if you love this sport and can stay objective, there is money to be made. It takes time to figure it all out

The problem with me is that I want to make most money, but only big parlays can give it to me ( Rebellion style)

 

[EzFlyer]

The problem with me is that I want to make most money, but only big parlays can give it to me ( Rebellion style)

It's a marathon, not a Sprint. I'm sure rebel has made a lot, but remember he has tons of losing events, too. It's not easy to hit monster parlays, lol

 

[Wiktoruspro]

It's a marathon, not a Sprint. I'm sure rebel has made a lot, but remember he has tons of losing events, too. It's not easy to hit monster parlays, lol

I have to rethink this shit I mean... I lost sooooo many times, there were situations that only one fight on 7 didnt hit ( fuck you brooks) damn.. thanks for your kind words. 2 weeks pause will do fine.

 

[RuthlessRich]

I have to rethink this shit I mean... I lost sooooo many times, there were situations that only one fight on 7 didnt hit ( fuck you brooks) damn.. thanks for your kind words. 2 weeks pause will do fine.

Hey I think you have good knowledge on fights just do more single bets and less parlays

 

[pytycrys]

First year of betting MMA and it's been very kind to me.

I started with a bankroll of a broke Romanian student in the UK - 500£ and a unit of 5£.
My unit grew up to 10£ after a few months and now I have concluded the year with a profit of 2002£ from boxing and MMA. That not a lot for some of you guys, but it's a couple of nice holidays for me.
I will continue 2018 with a unit of 10£ for MMA and 20£ for Boxing. Boxing still seems more consistent, I need to follow others more in the MMA department. But that's just fine, we're all here to make money, aren't we?

Have a happy new year!

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Hey I think you have good knowledge on fights just do more single bets and less parlays

I wont make much money on singles, on the other side I wont risk for example 300$ to bet a 3.00 underdog to make 1k thats why I tried to make nice parlays but shit doesnt worked good for me

 

[RuthlessRich]

I wont make much money on singles, on the other side I wont risk for example 300$ to bet a 3.00 underdog to make 1k thats why I tried to make nice parlays but shit doesnt worked good for me

Yeah I am on a losing streak with this card and going big on lawler last event. Was doing pretty good up until then. For me I need to pull the trigger heavy on bets im really confident in such as Gasteuleum ITD vs Bisping. Also I get in a habit of betting stupid bets after im on a losing streak just cause I want to recoup losses which causes even more Ls. 2017 was a learning year, definitely down but looking to bounce back in 2018. This community has great knowledge on MMA, Boxing, and Kickboxing. Made some good bets tailing people on fighters such as Makdessi vs Abel.

 

[BatBoyJG]

Great year, I made some way too large bets when hammered a few times (Lawlet, Shevchenko, Gaethje vs Eddie) in the live bet department. If I hadn’t made those I’d be up another 15-20u it was really bad haha. Good thing is though I had it, and losing didn’t effect me too bad (Shevchenko won that fight though)

I’d love to be discipline with keeping track of bets on a spread sheet but I flake on that. Did that the first 2 months and then nada.

Though I did start third party tracking my bets this year and did great. Did 33 events in total (skipped a few or didn’t use it for a few) and ended with 60u in profit. That’s almost all with straight plays as well (50.22u) hitting dogs heavily with an avg odds played of +129 hitting at a 49% clip so beating the market by quite a bit.

I’m pretty good, I know I am. I need to not get lazy at times with inspecting every fight during busy times or when I am not as excited. Had I done so I would have also hit on Carla and Magny last night pre fight opposed to the live bets that I hit for them instead.

Probably looking to start putting out some content next year & honestly if someone is looking to collaborate hit me up. Really something that I always wanted to do... going to make it happen.

Cheers!

 

[Rapidryan88]

Been a great year for me betting wise, this forum has helped A LOT. People like budden,EZ, jim, Crowe (boxing) have helped so much as well as MANY others. I’m not some amazing capper that doesn’t need help from no one, I tail what I think is good and I’m very appreciative of what everyone posts here

My own picks have surprisingly been great this year but I need to focus on not letting the chat here change my mind too much as well as upping my percentage of correct picks on pick ems because that’s not my strong point, I need to stay confident in what I believe will win because I’ve been a bit too easily swayed this year.

In the new year I want to do more in plays because they’re soooo profitable for me on Bet365 but being up till 5 am every weekend is very hard!
This years been extremely profitable for me and helped me pay for a LOT of stuff so let’s hope we have more of the same next year!

Have a good night guys

 

[EzFlyer]

2017 Recap

Total Units: +186.59 (689 fights)

event summary:

LFA 1: +100
Invicta 21: +308.50
UFN 103: +18
LFA 2: -185
Bella 170: +479.45
Titan 43: +149.50
Bella 171: -105
UFC FOX 23: -540.96
UFN 104: -601.98
UFC 208: -413.97
LFA 4: +94
Bella 172: +295
UFN 105: +1,412.36
LFA 5: +225
Bella 173: +102
Bella 174: -200
UFC 209: +409.81
UFN 106: +1,521.58
UFN 107: +1,051.81
WSOF 35: -462.50
invicta 22: -2.57
Bella 175: -107.86
Bella 176: +325
UFC 210: +35.49
Bella 177: +352
UFC Fox 24: -740.23
Rizin 5: +140
LFA 10: -20
Bella 178: +263.75
UFN 108: +2,602.44
CES 44: +70
UFC 211: +1,464.96
Bella 179: -153.50
Titan 44: +50
Invicta 23: +89.50
KSW 39: 0
UFN 109: +1,376.41
UFC 212: -672.76 <----- summer slump hit again
UFN 110: -1,243.94
UFN 111: -805.78
Bella 180: +509.67
UFN 112: -856.70
LFA 15: -47.52 <----- summer slump ended (net of -3,117.03)
PFL 1: +351.48
TUF 25: -88.84
UFC 213: +176.14
DW1: +340
bella 181: +265.20
invicta 24: +92.50
ufn 113: +1,122.83
DW2: +248.01
UFC Fox 25: +1,808.50
DW3: +51.39
PFL 2: +2
UFC 214: +1,792.65
Rizin 6: -20
DW4: +113.50
LFA 18: -95.50
UFN 114: -1,105.65
DW 5: -125.90
DW 6: +466.32
Titan 45: -60
LFA 19: -205
DW 7: +469.94
Bella 182: +688.75
LFA 20: +102.50
DW 8: +350.75
Invicta 25: -63.75
UFN 115: +312.60
LFA 22: +237.50,
UFC 215: -169.46
UFN 116: -609.57
UFN 117: +97.95
LFA 23: -70
ACB 70: +99
Bella 183: +490.08
Bella 184: +118.34
UFC 216: +78.02
LFA 24: -92
Bella 185: -224
LFA 25: -70
UFN 118: +548.08
UFN 119: +619.06
PFL 3: -357.50
Bella 186: -304.60
UFC 217: +3,242.15 <----- best event of 2017
Bella 187: -50
UFN 120: +455.75
Bella 188: +90
Titan 46: +115
UFN 121: -2,108.75 <----- worst event of 2017 (man i get killed on aussie cards)
UFN 122: -561.84
Bella 189: -333
TUF 26: +1,009.84
UFC 218: +870.23
Invicta 26: +347.50
Bella 190: +194.50
UFN 123: +428.23
Bella 191: +78
UFC Fox 26: +382.65
Rizin 8: -31.67
UFC 219: +863.35

-------------

By Promotion:
UFC: +150.94 units (525 fights)
Bellator: +27.94 units (87 fights)
Japanese MMA (Rizin): +0.88 units (5 fights)
Invicta: +7.72 units (21 fights)
WSOF/PFL: -4.67 units (16 fights)
Titan: +2.55 units (7 fights)
Others: +1.23 units (28 fights)

-------------

By Price of the Fighter (this is a somewhat gray area, because if I bet on a -600 fighter but do it as "gaethje ITD -186" it counts for me as a bet on a fight with a -600 fighter, so to speak. grey area #2: my longshot event props fall under +401 and up dog slot

FAVORITES: +91.62 units (269 fights)
UNDERDOGS: +94.97 units (420 fights)
---
-101 to -200 favorites: +52.35 units (157 fights)
-201 to -400 favorites: +33.97 units (85 fights)
-401 & up favorites: +5.31 units (27 fights)

dogs up to +200: +93.09 units (232 fights)
+201 to +400 dogs: +3.46 units (107 fights)
+401 and up dogs: -1.58 units (81 fights)

-------------

By Weightclass (and event-wide):

Women: ((( +62.91 units total )))
145: +1.27 units
135: +10.33 units
125: +11.06 units
115: +40.55 units
105: -0.31 units

men: ((( +127.09 units total )))
265: +6.73 units
205: +20.54 units
185: +5.38 units
170: +22.04 units
155: +14.80 units
145: +16.36 units
135: +39.28 units
125: +1.96 units

---

event-wide props: ((( -3.40 units total )))

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: -0.90 units

Fastest KO/SUB: -1.25 units

OVER decisions: +0.37 units
UNDER decisions: -0.40 units
OVER KO/SUBS: +0.58 units
UNDER KO/SUBS: -0.21 units

Draws: -1.6 units

-------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +145.64 units
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +40.96 units

-------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-5u or worse):
7/22/17: -543.50: bermudez vs elkins
2/20/17: -582.00: marshman vs santos <-- 9 seconds from profit, too
11/11/17: -643.45: lauzon vs guida


huge wins (+5.99u or better... too many wins of 4-5.98u to list)

6/24/17: +599.00: douglas lima vs larkin
4/22/17: +602.55: wineland vs dodson (via O2.5 and dodson dec)
10/28/17: +641.00: munhoz vs font
6/3/17: +648.50: holloway vs aldo
8/22/17: +707.95: nzechukwu vs berzin <-- lol how'd i win so much here
12/9/17: +719.50: saenz vs dvalishvili
7/7/17: +721.00: gaethje vs johnson
5/28/17: +797.90: velickovic vs musoke
9/22/17: +885.05: andrade vs gadelha
7/22/17: +897.50: zaleski vs good
5/28/17: +916.70: akhmedov vs al hassan
11/4/17: +1,224.27: dillashaw vs garbrandt
4/22/17: +1,323.75: moreno vs ortiz
11/4/17: +1,328.93: namajunas vs jedrzejczyk
7/29/17: +1,445.48: ortega vs moicano
2/20/17: +1,786.50: markos vs esparza

-------------

my key takeaways:
-WOW. almost a 50/50 split on profits from favorites and dogs for me. 2016 was all about dogs. interesting.
-event props continue to bleed some profit again this year
-wmma got WAY better for me (largely cause of namajunas and andrade wins)

2017: +187u
2016: +113u
2015: +175u
2014: +125u
2013: +115u
2012: +137u
2011: +97u
2010: +94u

i'm finally raising my units for the first time in a few years. long overdue, i know. 100/unit is now 150/unit.

 

[BatBoyJG]

2017 Recap

Total Units: +186.59 (689 fights)

event summary:

LFA 1: +100
Invicta 21: +308.50
UFN 103: +18
LFA 2: -185
Bella 170: +479.45
Titan 43: +149.50
Bella 171: -105
UFC FOX 23: -540.96
UFN 104: -601.98
UFC 208: -413.97
LFA 4: +94
Bella 172: +295
UFN 105: +1,412.36
LFA 5: +225
Bella 173: +102
Bella 174: -200
UFC 209: +409.81
UFN 106: +1,521.58
UFN 107: +1,051.81
WSOF 35: -462.50
invicta 22: -2.57
Bella 175: -107.86
Bella 176: +325
UFC 210: +35.49
Bella 177: +352
UFC Fox 24: -740.23
Rizin 5: +140
LFA 10: -20
Bella 178: +263.75
UFN 108: +2,602.44
CES 44: +70
UFC 211: +1,464.96
Bella 179: -153.50
Titan 44: +50
Invicta 23: +89.50
KSW 39: 0
UFN 109: +1,376.41
UFC 212: -672.76 <----- summer slump hit again
UFN 110: -1,243.94
UFN 111: -805.78
Bella 180: +509.67
UFN 112: -856.70
LFA 15: -47.52 <----- summer slump ended (net of -3,117.03)
PFL 1: +351.48
TUF 25: -88.84
UFC 213: +176.14
DW1: +340
bella 181: +265.20
invicta 24: +92.50
ufn 113: +1,122.83
DW2: +248.01
UFC Fox 25: +1,808.50
DW3: +51.39
PFL 2: +2
UFC 214: +1,792.65
Rizin 6: -20
DW4: +113.50
LFA 18: -95.50
UFN 114: -1,105.65
DW 5: -125.90
DW 6: +466.32
Titan 45: -60
LFA 19: -205
DW 7: +469.94
Bella 182: +688.75
LFA 20: +102.50
DW 8: +350.75
Invicta 25: -63.75
UFN 115: +312.60
LFA 22: +237.50,
UFC 215: -169.46
UFN 116: -609.57
UFN 117: +97.95
LFA 23: -70
ACB 70: +99
Bella 183: +490.08
Bella 184: +118.34
UFC 216: +78.02
LFA 24: -92
Bella 185: -224
LFA 25: -70
UFN 118: +548.08
UFN 119: +619.06
PFL 3: -357.50
Bella 186: -304.60
UFC 217: +3,242.15 <----- best event of 2017
Bella 187: -50
UFN 120: +455.75
Bella 188: +90
Titan 46: +115
UFN 121: -2,108.75 <----- worst event of 2017 (man i get killed on aussie cards)
UFN 122: -561.84
Bella 189: -333
TUF 26: +1,009.84
UFC 218: +870.23
Invicta 26: +347.50
Bella 190: +194.50
UFN 123: +428.23
Bella 191: +78
UFC Fox 26: +382.65
Rizin 8: -31.67
UFC 219: +863.35

-------------

By Promotion:
UFC: +150.94 units (525 fights)
Bellator: +27.94 units (87 fights)
Japanese MMA (Rizin): +0.88 units (5 fights)
Invicta: +7.72 units (21 fights)
WSOF/PFL: -4.67 units (16 fights)
Titan: +2.55 units (7 fights)
Others: +1.23 units (28 fights)

-------------

By Price of the Fighter (this is a somewhat gray area, because if I bet on a -600 fighter but do it as "gaethje ITD -186" it counts for me as a bet on a fight with a -600 fighter, so to speak. grey area #2: my longshot event props fall under +401 and up dog slot

FAVORITES: +91.62 units (269 fights)
UNDERDOGS: +94.97 units (420 fights)
---
-101 to -200 favorites: +52.35 units (157 fights)
-201 to -400 favorites: +33.97 units (85 fights)
-401 & up favorites: +5.31 units (27 fights)

dogs up to +200: +93.09 units (232 fights)
+201 to +400 dogs: +3.46 units (107 fights)
+401 and up dogs: -1.58 units (81 fights)

-------------

By Weightclass (and event-wide):

Women: ((( +62.91 units total )))
145: +1.27 units
135: +10.33 units
125: +11.06 units
115: +40.55 units
105: -0.31 units

men: ((( +127.09 units total )))
265: +6.73 units
205: +20.54 units
185: +5.38 units
170: +22.04 units
155: +14.80 units
145: +16.36 units
135: +39.28 units
125: +1.96 units

---

event-wide props: ((( -3.40 units total )))

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: -0.90 units

Fastest KO/SUB: -1.25 units

OVER decisions: +0.37 units
UNDER decisions: -0.40 units
OVER KO/SUBS: +0.58 units
UNDER KO/SUBS: -0.21 units

Draws: -1.6 units

-------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +145.64 units
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +40.96 units

-------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-5u or worse):
7/22/17: -543.50: bermudez vs elkins
2/20/17: -582.00: marshman vs santos <-- 9 seconds from profit, too
11/11/17: -643.45: lauzon vs guida


huge wins (+5.99u or better... too many wins of 4-5.98u to list)

6/24/17: +599.00: douglas lima vs larkin
4/22/17: +602.55: wineland vs dodson (via O2.5 and dodson dec)
10/28/17: +641.00: munhoz vs font
6/3/17: +648.50: holloway vs aldo
8/22/17: +707.95: nzechukwu vs berzin <-- lol how'd i win so much here
12/9/17: +719.50: saenz vs dvalishvili
7/7/17: +721.00: gaethje vs johnson
5/28/17: +797.90: velickovic vs musoke
9/22/17: +885.05: andrade vs gadelha
7/22/17: +897.50: zaleski vs good
5/28/17: +916.70: akhmedov vs al hassan
11/4/17: +1,224.27: dillashaw vs garbrandt
4/22/17: +1,323.75: moreno vs ortiz
11/4/17: +1,328.93: namajunas vs jedrzejczyk
7/29/17: +1,445.48: ortega vs moicano
2/20/17: +1,786.50: markos vs esparza

-------------

my key takeaways:
-WOW. almost a 50/50 split on profits from favorites and dogs for me. 2016 was all about dogs. interesting.
-event props continue to bleed some profit again this year
-wmma got WAY better for me (largely cause of namajunas and andrade wins)

2017: +187u
2016: +113u
2015: +175u
2014: +125u
2013: +115u
2012: +137u
2011: +97u
2010: +94u

i'm finally raising my units for the first time in a few years. long overdue, i know. 100/unit is now 150/unit.

Legend