Opinion 2 Questions about Global Warming

[Voodoo_Child906]

2 questions about global warming I never quite understood

First off: the goal is to reduce global warming to 'less than 2C'. Currently we are at around 1.5C of warming I believe?

My question is how is 2C even 'that bad'? The Arctic is cold. Like really really cold. Around -20C in winter and 5C in summer, basically every day. There are parts that are even colder, some parts of Russian Siberia average below -40C in the winter for approx 6 months. 6 months of eternal freezing cold. How would a 2C increase to -38C cause any change at all? Seems like nothing really would happen. The only places that would see a noticeable effect would be like the east coast of U.S., where a 2C increase could bring some parts from a -1C average to a 1C average. Which would mean a lot less snow for some mild parts but the actual arctic and super cold regions would still stay super cold.
It was -89F in Yakutia earlier this winter, I don't see how bringing the temp up to approx -84F is going to cause any sort of difference. It's still fucking cold.

Second if the Arctic is warming faster than average what are the regions that are warming slower than average? I want to be able to play in snow 100 years from now and want to buy land in places that are more resilient.

A global average of over land and ocean of around 1.1 C could look like this. In this date range the Siberian Permafrost region is up around 4-5 C and if the permafrost melts it will release enough methane (20x the warming power of CO2) to accelerate the warming past the 2 C mark scientists are worried about.

 

[Bballfan123]

TS asked about specific areas, and the IPCC does provide interactive tools for looking at which changes are projected to occur in which areas. If you go to documentation page, they provide a 10 minute video overview of the interactive tools, as well as links to more information like the dataset/model sources etc. If you're just looking for a temperature map, just click on the simple climate futures icon. One note in reference to the original question, the 1.5/2 degrees of warming is the global average, but 3/4 of the earth is covered in water, and the temperature over the oceans won't change that much (except for the artic which will change a lot). So that 1.5/2 degrees of warming really means a little warming over the oceans, and much more warming over land.
https://interactive-atlas.ipcc.ch/

Thank you

 

[Bballfan123]

A global average of over land and ocean of around 1.1 C could look like this. In this date range the Siberian Permafrost region is up around 4-5 C and if the permafrost melts it will release enough methane (20x the warming power of CO2) to accelerate the warming past the 2 C mark scientists are worried about.

It's entirely possible that, say, summers will increase by 6C and winter will be colder by -4C (summer as in 6 months and winter the other 6 months, which is vaguely how Siberian weather works). Let's play easy mode and smooth out the data and that would indeed give a 2C increase in average temperature. And would give much hotter summers, and also paradoxically colder winters.

For reference, this year was the most snow cover in the northern hemisphere in the last 59 years. I believe BECAUSE of global warming. A 6C hotter summer would give hugely more amount of thermal energy in the Arctic ocean. When the cold season comes in October this leads to massive amounts of snow, which then causes a decrease in the winter temp. I am curious what the map will show after Russia's terrible 2023 winter.

References:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global-snow/202301
January 2023. Northern hemisphere ice is down almost 1 million square kilometers, but:

"The North America and Greenland snow cover extent was 17.66 million square kilometers (6.82 million square miles), which is 70,000 square kilometers (30,000 square miles) above the 1991-2020 average. This tied 1977 and 2019 as the 25th-largest snow cover extent for North America on record."

If we are getting colder why is the month ice coverage average 30,000 square miles above average? That's not a ton, but it's certainly not like the ice is vanishing before our eyes. The NOAA says ice coverage is above average. Good enough for me

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/3/135
Northern Hemisphere Snow-Cover Trends (1967–2018): A Comparison between Climate Models and Observations

"quite different from the modelled predictions. Moreover, the observed trends for autumn and winter suggest a long-term increase, although these trends were not statistically significant. Possible explanations for the poor performance of the climate models are discussed."


https://www.severe-weather.eu/globa...-hemisphere-highest-56-years-winter-cold-rrc/
Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere now Among the Highest in 56 years Increases the Likelihood of Cold Early Winter Forecast both in North America and Europe
From November 2022

This is on the first page of a Google search. Not some hare brained crackpot website.

 

[Bballfan123]

I can pretty much guarantee that the average winter temperature in your area isn't getting colder over a timescale of the last 50 years. Certain areas may be hit with out of the norm extreme cold events, but the overall trend virtually everywhere is average warmer temperatures.

I will take that bet

Edit: So I crunched the numbers myself

AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLEVELAND OHIO 1951-1960 VS 2011-2020

I did average high temperatures because Cleveland's weather service did not track low temperatures during that decade, only high temps. So avg and low temps are unusable data. I did this myself

DECADE 1951-1960
Avg Jan High Temp 34.78 F
Avg Feb High Temp 37.6 F
Avg Mar High Temp 43.35 F

Decade 2011-2020 (Acknowledged as the hottest decade in world history)
Avg Jan High Temp 35.08 F
Avg Feb High Temp 37.73 F
Avg Mar High Temp 46.38 F

Difference between 1951-1960 and 2011-2020
Avg Jan High Temp Difference +0.3 F
Avg Feb High Temp Difference +0.13 F
Avg Mar High Temp Difference +3.03 F

While you are right there has been an increase. I just don't think a less than 0.5 F difference, in the dead of winter, is that much. Maybe that is a localized phenomenon because of the Great Lakes? But I checked the data myself out of curiosity.

But I don't think you can argue in good faith a 0.13 F (0.08 C) difference, is that much. That means Cleveland's February high temperatures are increasing by approximately 0.02 F per decade. So in 1,000 years going by current trends Cleveland will hit 2 F warming, and in 1,800 years it will hit 2 C of warming. I think we are smart enough to manage that. Summer and spring are getting hotter, but winter? No. No it is not getting hotter where I live.

 

[codfather]

Among the top 100 most populous areas in the US, 7 of the top 10 worst affected areas (page 5) are in areas that are absolutely key to their region:
New York City / Long Island - 1st - sea-level rise
West Palm Beach (Miami region) - 7th - sea-level rise
Wilmington (Philly region) - 8th
Phoenix - 10th - water stress, heat
San Francisco / Oakland - 12th - water stress, sea-level rise, heat
Tucson - 53rd - water stress, heat
North Port - 67th - sea-level rise
Cape Coral - 75th - sea-level rise

 

[Prutfis]

It's climate change, not global warming. Weather, hot and cold gets more extreme

 

[PhitePhan]

It's climate change, not global warming. Weather, hot and cold gets more extreme

Is there some sort of ideal weather/climate, and if so, how was that determined? Also, how are we defining and measuring “extreme weather” events?

 

[Bballfan123]

Can I not post pics in the war room? I need to

 

[D3thr0n3d K1ng]

If you dont mind lots of places turning into deserts, the coastlines shrinking and burying coastal cities, and an influx of immigrants fighting with you over basic resources you have nothing to worry about TS.

 

[dirtypablo]

I will take that bet

Edit: So I crunched the numbers myself

AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES CLEVELAND OHIO 1951-1960 VS 2011-2020

I did average high temperatures because Cleveland's weather service did not track low temperatures during that decade, only high temps. So avg and low temps are unusable data. I did this myself

DECADE 1951-1960
Avg Jan High Temp 34.78 F
Avg Feb High Temp 37.6 F
Avg Mar High Temp 43.35 F

Decade 2011-2020 (Acknowledged as the hottest decade in world history)
Avg Jan High Temp 35.08 F
Avg Feb High Temp 37.73 F
Avg Mar High Temp 46.38 F

Difference between 1951-1960 and 2011-2020
Avg Jan High Temp Difference +0.3 F
Avg Feb High Temp Difference +0.13 F
Avg Mar High Temp Difference +3.03 F

While you are right there has been an increase. I just don't think a less than 0.5 F difference, in the dead of winter, is that much. Maybe that is a localized phenomenon because of the Great Lakes? But I checked the data myself out of curiosity.

But I don't think you can argue in good faith a 0.13 F (0.08 C) difference, is that much. That means Cleveland's February high temperatures are increasing by approximately 0.02 F per decade. So in 1,000 years going by current trends Cleveland will hit 2 F warming, and in 1,800 years it will hit 2 C of warming. I think we are smart enough to manage that. Summer and spring are getting hotter, but winter? No. No it is not getting hotter where I live.

The rate of temperature change isn't linear, so no, you can't just jump to that conclusion about the temperature in 1000 years. In either case, as I pointed out earlier in the thread, the issue isn't just that the temperature will be warmer - its all the secondary effects of that that are going to cause problems. Your locality may not face extreme changes in winter, but it will most likely still face radical changes in the weather during the rest of the year, and even if it doesn't, we live in an interconnected world where what happens in one place effects what happens in others. You think that massive migrations of people from South America (that absolutely dwarf what is happening now) won't effect you, just because your winter weather hasn't changed much? That massive reductions in global food production due to radically different weather patterns and widespread drought won't effect you?

 

[Voodoo_Child906]

It's entirely possible that, say, summers will increase by 6C and winter will be colder by -4C (summer as in 6 months and winter the other 6 months, which is vaguely how Siberian weather works). Let's play easy mode and smooth out the data and that would indeed give a 2C increase in average temperature. And would give much hotter summers, and also paradoxically colder winters.

For reference, this year was the most snow cover in the northern hemisphere in the last 59 years. I believe BECAUSE of global warming. A 6C hotter summer would give hugely more amount of thermal energy in the Arctic ocean. When the cold season comes in October this leads to massive amounts of snow, which then causes a decrease in the winter temp. I am curious what the map will show after Russia's terrible 2023 winter.

References:
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global-snow/202301
January 2023. Northern hemisphere ice is down almost 1 million square kilometers, but:

"The North America and Greenland snow cover extent was 17.66 million square kilometers (6.82 million square miles), which is 70,000 square kilometers (30,000 square miles) above the 1991-2020 average. This tied 1977 and 2019 as the 25th-largest snow cover extent for North America on record."

If we are getting colder why is the month ice coverage average 30,000 square miles above average? That's not a ton, but it's certainly not like the ice is vanishing before our eyes. The NOAA says ice coverage is above average. Good enough for me

https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3263/9/3/135
Northern Hemisphere Snow-Cover Trends (1967–2018): A Comparison between Climate Models and Observations

"quite different from the modelled predictions. Moreover, the observed trends for autumn and winter suggest a long-term increase, although these trends were not statistically significant. Possible explanations for the poor performance of the climate models are discussed."


https://www.severe-weather.eu/globa...-hemisphere-highest-56-years-winter-cold-rrc/
Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere now Among the Highest in 56 years Increases the Likelihood of Cold Early Winter Forecast both in North America and Europe
From November 2022

This is on the first page of a Google search. Not some hare brained crackpot website.

I'm not sure what you're arguing here. Weren't you originally asking "how is 2C even 'that bad'? I think I answered that. A 2C increase could unlock methane in the permafrost that would accelerate the warming and climate change well past what the climate models predict.

 

[no fat chicks]

Don't forget about ocean acidification TS!

 

[Sano]

There's no doubt about this really, global temperatures are rising:

Past eight years confirmed to be the eight warmest on record
The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15 [1.02 to 1.27] °C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels. 2022 is the 8th consecutive year (2015-2022) that annual global temperatures have reached at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels, according to all datasets compiled by WMO. 2015 to 2022 are the eight warmest years on record. The likelihood of – temporarily – breaching the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement is increasing with time.

The persistence of a cooling La Niña event, now in its third year, means that 2022 was not the warmest year on record, but is “only” the fifth or sixth warmest. But this cooling impact will be short-lived and will not reverse the long-term warming trend caused by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicates about a 60% chance that La Niña will persist during January-March 2023, and should be followed by ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña).

The 10-year average temperature for the period 2013-2022 is 1.14 [1.02 to 1.27] °C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. This compares with 1.09°C from 2011 to 2020, as estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report, and indicates that long-term warming continues.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/past-eight-years-confirmed-be-eight-warmest-record

https://www.meteorologicaltechnolog...summer-2021-warmest-on-record-for-europe.html

This will manifest in different ways locally depending on the season, other weather conditions and geographical location. One of these might be colder winters in specific areas because of the polar vortex being effected, as well as increased snowfall due to air moisture. However, more systematic and pressing are periods of extreme heat, which we've seen more and more the last decades. A recent model, which unfortunately might be pretty accurate, predicts this in the US:

Map shows 'extreme heat belt' projected to cover a quarter of the US in 30 years, where temperatures would breach 125 degrees Fahrenheit
The heat waves scorching the US this summer may just be the beginning of an extreme heat belt forming across the country.

"If people think this was hot — this is going to be one of the better summers of the rest of their lives," Matthew Eby, CEO of the climate-risk research nonprofit First Street Foundation, told Insider.

The foundation published a "Hazardous Heat" report on Monday, using a peer-reviewed model to assess six years of US government satellite data and predict future risk of extreme heat by property. Its conclusions align with scientists' warnings that extreme heat will become more common, more extreme, and longer-lasting in the coming decades.

Next year, the report projects that 8 million Americans face the prospect of sweltering in at least 125 degrees Fahrenheit for at least one day. By 2053, that would rise to 107 million Americans — 13 times more people in just 30 years, according to the report.
https://www.businessinsider.com/map-shows-united-states-extreme-heat-belt-study-2022-8?r=US&IR=T

This is not going into what will happen to the oceans, wildlife, crops, and arctics. Some places will indeed be more fertile, it's not all bad, but the negative consequences like extreme heat, ocean acidification, sea levels, natural disasters, and desertification looks to outweight the good by a very large margin. We'll see, but climate change/global warming is real and seems to right now largely be driven by humans. We need to do someting about it to curb the rate of increase and prepare for the environmental changes.

 

[Bballfan123]

The rate of temperature change isn't linear, so no, you can't just jump to that conclusion about the temperature in 1000 years. In either case, as I pointed out earlier in the thread, the issue isn't just that the temperature will be warmer - its all the secondary effects of that that are going to cause problems. Your locality may not face extreme changes in winter, but it will most likely still face radical changes in the weather during the rest of the year, and even if it doesn't, we live in an interconnected world where what happens in one place effects what happens in others. You think that massive migrations of people from South America (that absolutely dwarf what is happening now) won't effect you, just because your winter weather hasn't changed much? That massive reductions in global food production due to radically different weather patterns and widespread drought won't effect you?

Wr should rotate. We will global warm one area, then when it gets too got everyone move to Cleveland then when that gets too hot move back. Move in a circle

 

[Bballfan123]

There's no doubt about this really, global temperatures are rising:

Past eight years confirmed to be the eight warmest on record
The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15 [1.02 to 1.27] °C above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels. 2022 is the 8th consecutive year (2015-2022) that annual global temperatures have reached at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels, according to all datasets compiled by WMO. 2015 to 2022 are the eight warmest years on record. The likelihood of – temporarily – breaching the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement is increasing with time.

The persistence of a cooling La Niña event, now in its third year, means that 2022 was not the warmest year on record, but is “only” the fifth or sixth warmest. But this cooling impact will be short-lived and will not reverse the long-term warming trend caused by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in our atmosphere. The WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicates about a 60% chance that La Niña will persist during January-March 2023, and should be followed by ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Niño or La Niña).

The 10-year average temperature for the period 2013-2022 is 1.14 [1.02 to 1.27] °C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline. This compares with 1.09°C from 2011 to 2020, as estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment report, and indicates that long-term warming continues.
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/past-eight-years-confirmed-be-eight-warmest-record

https://www.meteorologicaltechnolog...summer-2021-warmest-on-record-for-europe.html

This will manifest in different ways locally depending on the season, other weather conditions and geographical location. One of these might be colder winters in specific areas because of the polar vortex being effected, as well as increased snowfall due to air moisture. However, more systematic and pressing are periods of extreme heat, which we've seen more and more the last decades. A recent model, which unfortunately might be pretty accurate, predicts this in the US:

Map shows 'extreme heat belt' projected to cover a quarter of the US in 30 years, where temperatures would breach 125 degrees Fahrenheit
The heat waves scorching the US this summer may just be the beginning of an extreme heat belt forming across the country.

"If people think this was hot — this is going to be one of the better summers of the rest of their lives," Matthew Eby, CEO of the climate-risk research nonprofit First Street Foundation, told Insider.

The foundation published a "Hazardous Heat" report on Monday, using a peer-reviewed model to assess six years of US government satellite data and predict future risk of extreme heat by property. Its conclusions align with scientists' warnings that extreme heat will become more common, more extreme, and longer-lasting in the coming decades.

Next year, the report projects that 8 million Americans face the prospect of sweltering in at least 125 degrees Fahrenheit for at least one day. By 2053, that would rise to 107 million Americans — 13 times more people in just 30 years, according to the report.
https://www.businessinsider.com/map-shows-united-states-extreme-heat-belt-study-2022-8?r=US&IR=T

This is not going into what will happen to the oceans, wildlife, crops, and arctics. Some places will indeed be more fertile, it's not all bad, but the negative consequences like extreme heat, ocean acidification, sea levels, natural disasters, and desertification looks to outweight the good by a very large margin. We'll see, but climate change/global warming is real and seems to right now largely be driven by humans. We need to do someting about it to curb the rate of increase and prepare for the environmental changes.

I'm interested in what areas will be 'more fertile'. Canada? The Great Lakes? Northern Europe? Who knows

 

[Bballfan123]

I'm not sure what you're arguing here. Weren't you originally asking "how is 2C even 'that bad'? I think I answered that. A 2C increase could unlock methane in the permafrost that would accelerate the warming and climate change well past what the climate models predict.

Im arguing how can methane be melting if the permafrost/ice is increasing? If say summers are 6C hotter but winters are 4C colder, how will THAT scenario affect the permafrost? Because permafrost is formed in the dead of winter. Hopefully it's not too bad

 

[nostradumbass]

The marketing department switched it from global warming to climate change so they can say they were right no matter what happens, then tell you weather does not equal climate when it doesn't fit, right before telling you every storm or a hot day in the desert that does fit is climate change in action.

It's not really a matter of the comfort of the temperature so much as the downstream effects of sea levels getting higher. The better question would be why giving these weird Druids at Davos all the power would ward off the sun monster.

It's a little too convenient that the solutions are the same things they were pushing for before climate change was even the excuse, and all are giving them all the power and ownership of everything to distribute to the peasants as they see fit. They keep switching from "it's already too late" to "there's still time if you give us all the power now". It's the same tactic a scummy salesman uses with a fake buyer on the line negotiating against you to drive the price up so you hurry up and buy it before he does, only it's "we got the sun monster on the line here and he's ready to kill your grandkids if you don't take our offer".

 

[Prutfis]

Im arguing how can methane be melting if the permafrost/ice is increasing? If say summers are 6C hotter but winters are 4C colder, how will THAT scenario affect the permafrost? Because permafrost is formed in the dead of winter. Hopefully it's not too bad

The Greenland iceshelf alone is losing 250 billion metric tons pr year and it's accelerating

 

[Voodoo_Child906]

Im arguing how can methane be melting if the permafrost/ice is increasing? If say summers are 6C hotter but winters are 4C colder, how will THAT scenario affect the permafrost? Because permafrost is formed in the dead of winter. Hopefully it's not too bad

The permafrost is not increasing. There may be larger temperature extremes (highest and lowest) in the artic but overall the climate is warming. Permafrost forms in the winter but it also thaws and melts in the spring/summer/fall. If the spring/summer/fall are warmer and have a longer duration then permafrost will see a net loss over time.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/scienc...st-is-radically-changing-the-arctic-landscape

 

[PhitePhan]

For anybody curious about arguments on both sides, the following link seems pretty useful.

https://climatechange.procon.org/