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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Apr 19, 2017.
Ouch. Lmao. That's all you can do. Time for Plan B.
Yikes. I felt dumb betting Aguilar when I saw the size advantage
Didn't seem so drastic at weigh ins
Girl fights smh
Boys and girls, do not chase. Very unhealthy. Plan B = Branch.
Everytime I put a bet down pre-fight, not so good. Man, this will only make me more superstitious.
I got emotional after Yair got totally wrecked. Put more money on Maia. End of first Round I was freaking out. Thankfully he came back. Overall profit of $85. I'm happy with it. If Holloway spanks Aldo I'll be even happier. But very happy at least the judging was right. That would have been a god damn shame if they stole that victory. Getting the back should be worth points. It's not just a submission attempt. It's utter dominance.
a night to forget for me, brutal main card.
Poirier £78 returns £153 (VOID)
Sherman, vick £50 returns £128
Knight £100 returns £200
Branch £50 returns £125
Jds £100 returns £250
Jds £28 returns £67
Andrade £100 returns £250
Casey, knight, Poirier (VOID), Andrade, sherman £20 (free bet) returns £279
Masvidal/maia draw £10 returns £817
Masvidal £100 returns £210
Masvidal £50 returns £100
Masival £75 returns £157
Masvidal ko, andrade itd, yair, Poirier (VOID) £10 returns £247
Yair £200 returns £500
Jotko £50 returns £100
Christensen £15 returns £65
Jotko, vick, casey, Poirier, yair, pettis, benitez, masvidal, knight £10 returns £715
Vick, jotko, yair, knight, Poirier, casey, sherman, benitez, Andrade, masvidal ko £7 returns £4475
Benitez, vick £120 returns £250
Benitez, vick £50 returns £102
Christensen, benitez, sherman, casey, vick, jotko, knight, rodriguez, Poirier, masvidal, Andrade, jds £5 (free bet) returns £17000
3u Maia - 2.10
2u Miocic - 1.84
2u Benitez - 1.72
1.5u Edgar - 1.75
1.5u Alvarez - 2.02
1.5u Knight - 1.87
0.5u Benitez + Knight - 2.81
0.5u Benitez + Jotko/Branch o2.5 - 2.13
0.5u Sherman - 1.72
0.25u Reyes - 4.12
0.1u Benitez ITD - 3.75
0.1u Sherman R1 - 3.25
0.1u Knight DEC - 3.75
0.1u Andrade ITD - 4.33
0.05u Benitez R3 - 23.00
0.05u - Benitez ITD + Sherman + Alvarez DEC + Edgar DEC - 56.37
0.05u Edgar R3 - 23.00
Live bets or late additions:
0.05u Maia R2 - 9.00
0.05u Maia R3 - 21.00
0.5u Branch - 1.80
0,1u Knight ITD - 9.00
0,25u Frankie ITD - 3.10
1u JJ - 1.75
I went way too big on Benitez, other than that I can't really complain. Solid night!
-2.7u , I should have live bet, but no excuses , the hype got me.
Actually finished down like .8u despite being 6-3 on straights. Like I predicted though, definitely the time where I really take a look at my betting structure. Waaay too hard on Christensen, and cost myself a lot of money with my stupid parlays and prop hedging. For the next card I'll be practicing more restraint, and limiting myself to straight bets and maybe a lotto. Will also concentrate more on my sizing of props since this was still only my second card with access to them.
All in all, great card to watch. I was able to pull in like 3u livebetting, so I'll consider it a slightly profitable learning experience. No regrets on Jotko, the heavyweight under, and the Polo stab, but definitely regret the parlays, dumb prop hedging, and how hard I went on Christensen.
Hope everyone else actually made money on their correct picks, haha.
$1500 bet on Alvarez returned after NC
$1000 rolled over to JJ for $500 return
$350 to JDS for $500 (loss)
All in all ended +$150 for the night
Still bummed the Eddie fight went to shit. Was starting to feel good about Eddie Dec @ +550 as the momentum was shifting
Main profit was singles on Maia/Edgar/Branch and a parlay with the 3. Up about 8u overall. Was sweating bullets as Masvidal was landing those leg kicks and Maia was shooting naked shots.
Goofed a couple cheap lotto tickets and a $3 entry on DK (Barzola over Maia would've been 2 grand. Such is life):
1.66u for me. win streak stays alive but not very happy with my performance tonight
UFC 211 Net: +1,464.96
Miocic -123: 245 for 200 / miocic DEC: 10 parlays / DEC: 15 parlays / O2.0: 69 for 50
Andrade +243: 210 for 510 - 21 parlays / andrade DEC: 10 parlays / andrade SUB: 15 for 125.25 / O3.5: 140 for 100 / ITD: 10 for 60
maia +100: 376.09 for 375 - 21 parlays / maia DEC: 50 for 218 - 10 parlays / maia SUB: 50 for 217.50 - 15 parlays / masvidal RD3: 10 for 120
edgar -130: 260 for 200 / edgar DEC: 21 parlays / edgar -3.5: 15 parlays / ITD: 33 for 51.15
branch +100: 250 for 250 / branch DEC: 21 parlays / O2.5: 295 for 150
alvarez +100: 100 for 100 / alvarez DEC: 74 for 358.36 - 10 parlays / DEC: 100 for 205 - 21 parlays
skelly: 15 for 50 / skelly DEC: 10 parlays / knight RD3: 10 for 155
sherman -120: 90 for 75 / sherman SUB: 10 for 106.50
polo +348: 100 for 347.50 / polo +3.5: 36 parlays / vick DEC: 10 parlays
casey -104: 129.50 for 125 / casey ITD: 15 parlays / casey NSC: 77.50 for 50
barzola +140: 100 for 140 / barzola DEC: 36 parlays / O2.5: 99 for 55
christensen +350: 50 for 175 / christensen RD3: 5 for 107.50 / christensen +3.5: 15 parlays
draws: 25 for (paid -23) 1500+
FOTN: skelly-knight: 15 for 112.50
35 RR for 1,074.19: JDSStipeDEC/ MaiaSUB/ edgar-3.5/ reyes+3.5/ caseyITD/ barzolaDEC/ christ+3.5
49 RR for (paid +8.41) 853.61: andrade/ maia/ edgarDEC/ branchDEC/ poirieralvarezDEC/ reyes+3.5/ barzolaDEC
30 RR for (-20.60) 787.89: miocicDEC/ andradeDEC/ maiaDEC/ alvarezDEC/ skellyDEC/ vickDEC
had a lot of big bets for me going in here, very pleased w/the result.
should've made more on stipe/frankie. especially frankie.
I was at a concert tonight so I couldn't watch live and wasn't home to post my preflight plays but here they are:
Total Risk: 19.84u
Straight Bets (+8.07u)
4.75u - Edgar ML -137 (won 3.67u)
4.75u - Poirier ML -129 (No Bet - No Contest)
4.75u - Maia ML -108 (won 4.4u)
1.67u - Maia Sub +225
0.75u - Masdival KO/TKO/DQ +225
0.83u to win 5.38u - Poirier/Cejudo/Edgar/Maia (won 1.94u)
2.33u to win 16u - Maia/Andrade/Miocic (lost 2.33u)
I'm looking forward to watching this card tomorrow when I wake up. Should have just put the OVER or fight goes to DEC in the 3 leg parlay for the WMMA fight but I didn't have a lot of time to place it and I had to do it on my phone.
Hope everyone had a good night and won some money
1.25U Poirer @ $2.00
1.5U Joanna Champion @ $1.55 = $33 profit
1.25U Maia @ $1.80 = $40 profit
0.75U Maia @ 2.05 = $31.50 profit
1U Edgar @ $1.48 = $19.20 profit
1.25U Edgar @ $1.80 = $40 profit
Total = +$163.70
0.625U Dos Santos @ $2.55 = -$25
1U Dos Santos @ $2.45 = -$40
1.25U Dos Santos/Miocic O1.5 @ $1.50 = -$60
1.25U Jotko @ $1.67 = -$60
1.13U Skelly @ 1.90 = -$45
Total = -$230
Net = -$66.30 (about -1.5U)
Not a great night for me. Was hoping JDS had a lot more fight in him than he did, props to Stipe for those lightning fast hands!
Alvarez's illegal knees cost me 4u and my first losing semipro event. After live bets (Branch + Knight=1u) my total loss is slightly less than 1u (ROI -5%). I know I should not bet heavy on technical analysis (because I suck at that and only see what I want to see) and yet I had 2u on both Reyes and Rodriquez.
I lost all my parlays, but I think I figured a way to use then effectively as insurance. Betting small against my own picks on lines that have risen in value serves as an insurance. I should have done couple more like Skelly - JDS - Edgar instead of spamming Reyes, which I thought was the best value line, but in which I already had invested in.
Edit. I also lost all every prop bet I came up by myself. How about that...
Draw props were obviously a long shot finding out the old rules were in play...
1u Benitez @1.70 L
1.6u Maia @1.95 W + 1.52u
2u Alvarez @2.10 push
05u Maia/Alvarez W +0.47u
Total profit +5.29u
Great card, feel so dumb today for not hammering Frankie/JJ
1.56u Miocic -117 +1.33u
0.2u Miocic RD1 +475 +0.95u
2.5u Andrade NSC -125 +0u
1u Andrade +160 -1u
0.3u Andrade SUB +835 -0.3u
3u Maia -122 +2.46u
0.5u Maia SUB +435 -0.5u
0.2u Masvidal RD3 +1325 -0.2u
0.1u Maia-Masvidal DRAW +5500 -0.1u
1.2u Edgar -120 +1u
0.1u Edgar SUB +1175 -0.1u
0.87u Jotko -172 -0.87u
1u NOT Volkov ITD/Jotko-Branch o2.5 -121 +0.83u
1u Wizards (Game 3)/Jotko-Branch o2.5 +103 +1.03u
2.5u Alvarez +100 +0u
0.2u Alvarez KO +580 +0u
0.3u Alvarez DEC +550 +0u
0.5u Knight +270 +1.35u
1u Knight NSC +110 +1.1u
0.1u Knight RD3 +1300 +1.3u
0.5u Vick SUB +215 -0.5u
1.65u Benitez -165 -1.65u
0.1u NOT Masvidal ITD/Andrade NSC/Reyes-Vick ITD/Branch-Jotko o2.5/Casey NSC +0.21u
0.1u Alvarez/Edgar/Maia-Masvidal ITD/Andrade +1561 -0.1u
0.55u RR (2s,3s,4) Branch DEC +250/Rodriguez ITD +390/Masvidal ITD +217/JDS ITD +240 -0.55u
Slightly disappointed with the result based on how I feel like I capped the card. But I'll definitely take any win with how this year has gone for me so far. This was actually my best night of the year up to this point (kinda sad lol), but it puts me back to almost exactly even overall. Hopefully the rest of the year will treat me better. It was sad to see the Eddie vs DP fight end the way it did. Awesome fight and it looked like Eddie had the momentum. Congrats to all the winners.
Andrade (+168) to win 1.5U
Andrade ITD (+300) to win .5U
Maia (-105) to win 1U
Edgar (-120) to win 1U
Edgar Decision (+128) to win .5U
Alvarez Decision (+294) to win 1U
Alvarez Decision (+786) to win 8U
Vick Sub (+165) to win 1U
Coulter (+110) to win 1U
Christenson Rd3 (+2100) to win 1U
Knight (+105) to win 1U
Branch (+110) to win .5U
$12 Round Robin (2's) to win $159.49
$4 Round Robin (3's) to win $204.14
$.50 4 team parlay to win $91.69
Edgar Decision (+145) + Andrade ITD (+290) + Maia Decision (+436) + Alvarez Decision (+260)
+.32U HA! Still learning. No more parlays and I should've been bigger on Edgar and not on Andrade at all.