Think I'm finally set for now unless lines shift or I add more of the later props. Definitely think this will be the card that finally forces me to sit down at look at my betting structures, since the way I bet JJ and Maia is just downright stupid for this card. Gonna put some of the blame on boredom/degen instincts and putting down a stupid 2u RR weeks ago during the withdrawal period of no cards, but I definitely cost myself money with poor betting structure. Regardless, here are my plays.
3.1u Maia +110
0.66u Maia SUB/ITD +380 (So much line movement)
2u Edgar -130
2u JJ -155
1u Poirier EVs
0.33u Poirier ITD +240
1.33u Stipe -120
1u Christensen +240
1.8u Christensen ITD +542 (movement)
2u Jotko -145
0.6u Jotko DEC +165
1.33u Knight +110
0.4u Knight DEC +265
1u Sherman ITD +143
0.33u Pettis DEC +580
0.66u Polo Reyes +xxx (Think the line is still moving up so haven't booked yet)
1.25u Sherman/Coulter u1.5 -125
0.07u Maia/Masvidal DRAW
0.33u Benitez ML + Jotko/Branch o2.5 + Sherman/Coulter u1.5 + Knight ml +600 (Another boredom play I actually don't remember making)
And now the stupid RR and subsequent stupid hedges that I made because of it. Just outright bad.
RR'd in 2-4 legs: Maia SUB + JJ DEC + Edgar DEC + Cejudo/Pettis GTD. Total risk 2.2u to win ~17.5u. 11u.
Dumb Hedges
1u Maia DEC +354 (More line movement)
1u Yair DEC +271
1.25u Andrade NSC -125
0.33u Andrade TKO/KO +515
0.33u Andrade DEC +380
0.33u JJ ITD +349
0.66u Christensen DEC +650 (Kind of forced this on myself with the movement, should just be ML, I'm dumb)
Aaaand a lotto RR in 2-5 team parlays. Christensen TKO/KO + Stipe DEC + Pettis DEC + Polo KO/TKO + Maia ITD. Total risk: 1u to win 867.8u 253u. Planned on it being Christensen DEC but the TKO line was just way too good, so that could be tilting.
TLDR: Total risk is about 30 Units. Way too many. I'm also effectively 7u deep on Maia without a hedge, so will likely look to change that. 2nd biggest play is Joachim Christensen. Oh boy.
Gonna be a wild one
EDIT: Damn Cejudo's hand. Lot of weird plays now.
Added a second lotto out of tilt from the cancellation; makes no sense.
RR in 3s and 5: Christensen TKO/KO + Stipe DEC + Polo KO/TKO + Maia ITD + Knight R3. Risk: 0.33u to win around 833u
