Unlike Weidman, Luke won't be able to go for double or single legs against Yoel because of the whole height difference and Luke not being quick enough to do them. Yoel wasn't submitted by Jacare when he was on the ground gassed, so I don't believe Luke will have luck getting Yoel's thick neck. Luke gassed hard against Weidman and against Branch, I don't see why Luke would want to take it "deep waters" as it would imply not going hard on Yoel the first rounds what would further imply Yoel won't be gassed(see Machida fight) in the later rounds. Hell, Whittaker was gassed in the 5th round too in his bout against Yoel. Yoel won't be attempting as much takedowns like he did against Whittaker and so will have more oxygen circulating throughout his body in later rounds. Yoel is a better boxer than Luke and also has a tremendous yet elusive chin(Whittaker expressed surprise how hard Yoel was to hit). It's only matter of time before Yoel lands and Luke won't take it. I see it as a slow starter and Luke getting tired, dropping his hands, and following the fate like many other Yoel's opponents when they think Yoel isn't as explosive in the 3rd yet they are gravely mistaken.