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Really would like to see this match-up.
3% chance the fight happens
70% chance conor wins
You're a little generous on Khabib's pullout chances, I think his chance of not pulling out is lower. Everything else is pretty good.Chances of them signing to fight - 5%
Chances that Nurmgomedov doesn't pull out if said fight is signed - 33%
Chances of Conor winning said fight if it happens - 75%
Yes
Amended
So 2.1% chance of Conor winningYes
Amended
Given the fight has about a 3% chance of said fight occurring....yep!So 2.1% chance of Conor winning
Conor won't fight Khabib.