UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

[turbozed]

Doesn't Casey's inability to cut off the cage against someone who uses such a crazy amount of lateral movement concern you? I agree, Hill has about 10 minutes or so worth of really being able to do it as effectively as she wants. But for those 2 rounds, nothing I've seen from Casey has shown me that her striking has anywhere near the footwork to cut Hill off. I'd have to check the stats, but it seems to me like Moroz really landed most of her strikes once Hill slowed down (and was already clearly ahead on the cards). I watched that fight a few weeks ago when these lines were released, so it's not totally fresh but it's at least somewhat recently.

The reach factor does matter too though, you could be on to something. But Casey has looked incredibly predictable and slow with her striking overall. Maybe being at the MMA Lab will fix some of her issues. But at least for 10 minutes, she's going to be at a serious speed and footwork disadvantage, which is a bad combination. On the plus side for Casey, it's not like Hill (like a most WMMA fighters) really tries incredibly hard to avoid the clinch. So if Casey can force a clinch battle for extended amounts of time, her chances obviously increase dramatically. I guess I trust (to a relative degree anyway) Hill's fight IQ to disengage and get back to her distance striking and movement if she's getting the worst of the clinch. But you absolutely make a solid case for Courtney's chances.

Despite what the commentators said about Casey's inability to cut off the cage and her following Waterson around, the fact of the matter remains that Waterson was only able to employ an outside kicking game for about a minute or two before Casey's forward pressure let her get close enough to land some heavy punches. Waterson had to expend a lot of energy moving backwards to try to outfight whereas Casey just steadily walked forward. After getting tagged by Casey in the first Waterson abandoned the outside kicking game for the rest of the fight.

Hill may have success for longer but I don't think she can do it for 10 minutes, especially if Casey can force a few clinch exchanges. Hill's preferred range is just slightly outside the punching reach of her opponent. She's actually not that great in the pocket and either moves backwards after throwing or goes forward into the clinch. It makes sense because her opponents always have a power advantage over her so the pocket is the danger zone. If she's clinching she's tiring out faster. But if she has to back off considerably every time she throws, that's also very tiring. She was lucky that she could stand just out of range of Moroz and save a bit of energy. But Moroz doesn't throw hard and her punches fall short. Casey's punches won't and Hill will have to work more.

It's not impossible for Hill to win with range distance striking, but she will have to fight a perfect fight and make very few mistakes. I just don't think it happens over 60% of the time.

 

[Shoulder]

Gall KO is 7.50, what am I missing? Isn’t that like then most likely outcome except for a RNC? 0.5U.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Gall KO is 7.50, what am I missing? Isn’t that like then most likely outcome except for a RNC? 0.5U.

Gall has had opponents hurt and jumped on a sub instead of going for a KO finish. His instinct is always going to be to go for a sub on a hurt opponent. Kinda like Manny bermudez

 

[Shoulder]

Gall has had opponents hurt and jumped on a sub instead of going for a KO finish. His instinct is always going to be to go for a sub on a hurt opponent. Kinda like Manny bermudez

Yes, but at 7.50 it’s pretty likely Sullivan doesn’t give him the sub and Gall just pounds him out. I love that bet.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

If Justin survives first 2 rounds than Vick is fucked.
James looked tired against Trinaldo who didnt put much volume on him, second thing he didnt looked good on weigh ins.
Oh and I found a interesting statistic about Vicks legkick defense, doesnt look good either.
Joe Duffy – 9 succesful / on 10 legkicks
Polo Reyes – 7/10
Abel Trujillo – 4/4
Beneil Dariush – 4/4
Glaico Franca – 12/15
Justin kicks alot on the leg so if chin holds up than he will win this fight because he is the better fighter.

 

[mposhtkouhi]

MY UFN 135 bets Of course Like alwalys all EASY MONEY bets!!!!. all single bets are for 50$ along with fight ending props.

Yaha- Wins inside+150
Gall- Wins in rd 1+160
Perez- Wins by dec+318
Alcantara- Wins inside+320
Alves- Wins by dec+244
Anders- Wins by dec+349
Figueierdo- Wins by dec+149
Barbena- Wins in rd 2+450
Casey- Wins by dec+171
Fili- Wins by dec+200
Vick- Wins by dec+560

9 fights go to a dec+953
2 fights go to a dec+8750
10 fights go to a dec+2525

1 fight ends in ko+1540
9 fights end in ko+30800
0 fights end in ko+9350

6 fights end in sub+2875
0 fights end in sub+1460
5 fights end in sub+1075

 

[Gugabe]

MY UFN 135 bets Of course Like alwalys all EASY MONEY bets!!!!. all single bets are for 50$ along with fight ending props.

Yaha- Wins inside+150
Gall- Wins in rd 1+160
Perez- Wins by dec+318
Alcantara- Wins inside+320
Alves- Wins by dec+244
Anders- Wins by dec+349
Figueierdo- Wins by dec+149
Barbena- Wins in rd 2+450
Casey- Wins by dec+171
Fili- Wins by dec+200
Vick- Wins by dec+560

9 fights go to a dec+953
2 fights go to a dec+8750
10 fights go to a dec+2525

1 fight ends in ko+1540
9 fights end in ko+30800
0 fights end in ko+9350

6 fights end in sub+2875
0 fights end in sub+1460
5 fights end in sub+1075

Vick by dec? I'd be surprised if his cardio holds up that long

 

[mposhtkouhi]

Vick by dec? I'd be surprised if his cardio holds up that long

We will see man I hope it hits

 

[Wiktoruspro]

We will see man I hope it hits

I give 1% chance, he looked tired against Trinaldo in r3. Justin has alot more volume than Trinaldo so if Vick doesnt finish him in 2 rounds than he is done.

 

[Mcgregorian]

MY UFN 135 bets Of course Like alwalys all EASY MONEY bets!!!!. all single bets are for 50$ along with fight ending props.

Yaha- Wins inside+150
Gall- Wins in rd 1+160
Perez- Wins by dec+318
Alcantara- Wins inside+320
Alves- Wins by dec+244
Anders- Wins by dec+349
Figueierdo- Wins by dec+149
Barbena- Wins in rd 2+450
Casey- Wins by dec+171
Fili- Wins by dec+200
Vick- Wins by dec+560

9 fights go to a dec+953
2 fights go to a dec+8750
10 fights go to a dec+2525

1 fight ends in ko+1540
9 fights end in ko+30800
0 fights end in ko+9350

6 fights end in sub+2875
0 fights end in sub+1460
5 fights end in sub+1075

fili is getting put to sleep by MJ
I am betting Casey DEC
No way Vick gets a DEC. I't will not go five rounds

 

[GrantSorenson]

If Justin survives first 2 rounds than Vick is fucked.
James looked tired against Trinaldo who didnt put much volume on him, second thing he didnt looked good on weigh ins.
Oh and I found a interesting statistic about Vicks legkick defense, doesnt look good either.
Joe Duffy – 9 succesful / on 10 legkicks
Polo Reyes – 7/10
Abel Trujillo – 4/4
Beneil Dariush – 4/4
Glaico Franca – 12/15
Justin kicks alot on the leg so if chin holds up than he will win this fight because he is the better fighter.

Yes, the problem for Vick is the leg kicks. Gaethje was well known as a leg kicker before the Porier and Alvarez fight and they were very nearly done by his leg kicks. Vick will be bringing track shoes to avoid these kicks but I think he will gas himself out. Justin needs to avoid Vicks kicks and knees from the outside but if he does thats good because it just means Vick will gas harder. The second Vick starts to gas here this fight is going to go south for him. I see him capitulating like a lead balloon

 

[GrantSorenson]

Yes, but at 7.50 it’s pretty likely Sullivan doesn’t give him the sub and Gall just pounds him out. I love that bet.

I don't think there is a remote chance of that happening. Gall dropped one dude with a punch and could easily have rained down hammerfists but he jumped on a choke. Same thing with Bermudez when he dropped Grant. He needed one or two hammerfists to end it but decided to take the long route setting up a mounted trangle. These guys have the bjj mindset which is all about subs. I would need a very high price to take Bermudez by KO and that goes for Gall too. I mean, the opponent would have to be vulnerable to being vertically slept with a punch. Like I want to have seen them being out cold before they hit the floor in previous fights because if they have any kind of life in them then those guys are not going to be looking for a KO. I have trained with highly skilled BJJ guys who love their BJJ and see themselves as BJJ specialists and they love nothing more than locking in a submission. They don't think about a KO. Everything Gall and Bermudez have shown so far is that everything they do is all about setting up the sub.

 

[Roads55]

gaethje money trickling in..

 

[piglord]

gaethje money trickling in..

got gaethje ko or dec last night at +162 (bet365). line is still there.

 

[Oblivian]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't he unsuccessful in the CFL? having played football his entire life and to be a CFL cast off, I hardly rank him in the same athletic tier as Yoel Romero.

I would say that someone like Chris Weidman is a closer athletic parallel.

CFL is pretty low paying. Not that he's making bank in MMA, but his ceiling is definitely higher.

 

[Bestonian]

Gall KO is 7.50, what am I missing? Isn’t that like then most likely outcome except for a RNC? 0.5U.

It's a value bet, gonna be honest with you. Gall wants to showcase his stand-up game

 

[mkess101]

Despite what the commentators said about Casey's inability to cut off the cage and her following Waterson around, the fact of the matter remains that Waterson was only able to employ an outside kicking game for about a minute or two before Casey's forward pressure let her get close enough to land some heavy punches. Waterson had to expend a lot of energy moving backwards to try to outfight whereas Casey just steadily walked forward. After getting tagged by Casey in the first Waterson abandoned the outside kicking game for the rest of the fight.

Hill may have success for longer but I don't think she can do it for 10 minutes, especially if Casey can force a few clinch exchanges. Hill's preferred range is just slightly outside the punching reach of her opponent. She's actually not that great in the pocket and either moves backwards after throwing or goes forward into the clinch. It makes sense because her opponents always have a power advantage over her so the pocket is the danger zone. If she's clinching she's tiring out faster. But if she has to back off considerably every time she throws, that's also very tiring. She was lucky that she could stand just out of range of Moroz and save a bit of energy. But Moroz doesn't throw hard and her punches fall short. Casey's punches won't and Hill will have to work more.

It's not impossible for Hill to win with range distance striking, but she will have to fight a perfect fight and make very few mistakes. I just don't think it happens over 60% of the time.

I think Hill has a huge footwork and speed edge on someone like Karate Hottie as it applies to this matchup. Throwing kicks as your main weapon just doesn't physically allow you to play the in and out game like a boxing-centric approach does. Casey did chase Waterson some, but your right in that her forward pressure also got her there some of the time too. But Hill's lateral movement is much better and less predictable than Michelle's.

I agree though that Hill's lack of power and willingness to clinch are major concerns. I have some on Hill's ML at -130 but will absolutely switch sided live if Hill isn't playing her game really well and clearly outlanding Courtney. Or if Hill is too willingly staying in the clinch.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Can someone explain the Sullivan line? He was very competitive with Niko Price. I don't see why he's such a huge dog here.

 

[mkess101]

I don't think there is a remote chance of that happening. Gall dropped one dude with a punch and could easily have rained down hammerfists but he jumped on a choke. Same thing with Bermudez when he dropped Grant. He needed one or two hammerfists to end it but decided to take the long route setting up a mounted trangle. These guys have the bjj mindset which is all about subs. I would need a very high price to take Bermudez by KO and that goes for Gall too. I mean, the opponent would have to be vulnerable to being vertically slept with a punch. Like I want to have seen them being out cold before they hit the floor in previous fights because if they have any kind of life in them then those guys are not going to be looking for a KO. I have trained with highly skilled BJJ guys who love their BJJ and see themselves as BJJ specialists and they love nothing more than locking in a submission. They don't think about a KO. Everything Gall and Bermudez have shown so far is that everything they do is all about setting up the sub.

Gall has like 2 fights to go by. The Jackson and Sage fights. The thing is that sometimes it's about what your opponent does more than it is about how you'd prefer to finish. Some guys will fight the choke (when their back is taken-a good possibility here for Sullivan) by keeping their hands in tight (they literally worry about nothing but fighting the hands). This is when you often see guys flattened out and pounded out from back mount. If Sullivan goes that route then Gall absolutely may just decide to drop punches on the sides of his head until the ref stops it.

Nobody is saying Gall sub isn't more likely. Nobody is saying it isn't a LOT more likely. But his sub line is around evens and I have his KO line (posted about this last weekend) at +900. Sorry, but it isn't 9x more likely he finishes by sub. 5x more likely? Sure, maybe. But not 9x more likely.

 

[mkess101]

Can someone explain the Sullivan line? He was very competitive with Niko Price. I don't see why he's such a huge dog here.

Matchup more than anything. Sullivan is a below average grappler and has suspect sub defense. Gall is legit on the mat.

Gall ML is pretty steep though I agree. Odds are Mickey finishes so better to play it that way imo.