UFN 118 - Cerrone vs Till - Poland

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This Oskar Piechota guy is pretty good. Comes from a BJJ background, black belt under Drysdale but from watching his highlights you'd think he's a striker, headkicks and one punch KO's.

27 years old, athletic, undefeated, fighting at home, fought decent competition outside the UFC, solid Euro prospect.

Wilson is dropping to 185, he was always a small 205er that barely cut anything. But still 185 is a big drop and he's probably never done a weight cut like this before. Wilson is a southpaw striker, likes to throw hands but I'm not all that impressed from what I've seen from him.

No shame in losing to Cutelaba but he got dominated in the stand up. And losing to Henrique isn't a good look, it was a back and fourth fight but Wilson gassed and was overwhelmed. Outside the UFC, Wilson has fought absolute trash, barely fought anyone that has a win on their record. Trains with Larkin at MIllennia MMA.

I like so many favourites on this card, usually I'm all about betting dogs. This line has barely moved since it opened, doubt it's getting a lot of action but I'm considering a play on the Polish prospect. Wouldn't mind a better price but I'm doubtful I get it.
 
^ I'm on Piechota. Think he's a technically more sound striker. Just has to avoid Wilson's left hand since Wilson's attack is pretty unbalanced. But the main advantage is that Piechota's ground game is super slick. Made Craig White look like Craig White belt. We haven't seen much of Wilson on the ground except that he was repeatedly swept and then mounted by Frank Waisten Jr.

Also, just take a look at Wilson's record. All straight jobbers until he got to the UFC. I don't think Wilson would've been signed by the UFC if he wasn't a 205er since that division is so slim. Now he's dropped down to MW which to me feels like some sort of backdoor Roth IRA conversion loophole but for MMA.

Wilson does have big power with that left though, and there's a chance he lands something in the 1st round. But given how much he slows down, I don't see any way he wins if it gets to the 2nd or 3rd.
 
turbozed said:
^ I'm on Piechota. Think he's a technically more sound striker. Just has to avoid Wilson's left hand since Wilson's attack is pretty unbalanced. But the main advantage is that Piechota's ground game is super slick. Made Craig White look like Craig White belt. We haven't seen much of Wilson on the ground except that he was repeatedly swept and then mounted by Frank Waisten Jr.

Also, just take a look at Wilson's record. All straight jobbers until he got to the UFC. I don't think Wilson would've been signed by the UFC if he wasn't a 205er since that division is so slim. Now he's dropped down to MW which to me feels like some sort of backdoor Roth IRA conversion loophole but for MMA.

Wilson does have big power with that left though, and there's a chance he lands something in the 1st round. But given how much he slows down, I don't see any way he wins if it gets to the 2nd or 3rd.
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Yeah Wilson has only beaten complete bums and Chris Dempsey who can't take a punch and has been KO'd in 3 of his last 4. Wilson was fighting pro fights with 3 minute rounds against 0-0 fighters lol

Wilson's takedown defence has held up in the UFC so far but even if Piechota can't get him down I think Piechota can get the better of the striking, maybe even catch WIlson with something.

I want to wait until Weigh ins to see how Wilson looks, 20 pounds is a lot. Hopefully I can still get a decent price on Piechota after weigh ins, at least -200, if not I'll pass.

Who else have you got? I'm only on favourites so far, Clark, Emeev, Ladd.
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
Yeah Wilson has only beaten complete bums and Chris Dempsey who can't take a punch and has been KO'd in 3 of his last 4. Wilson was fighting pro fights with 3 minute rounds against 0-0 fighters lol

Wilson's takedown defence has held up in the UFC so far but even if Piechota can't get him down I think Piechota can get the better of the striking, maybe even catch WIlson with something.

I want to wait until Weigh ins to see how Wilson looks, 20 pounds is a lot. Hopefully I can still get a decent price on Piechota after weigh ins, at least -200, if not I'll pass.

Who else have you got? I'm only on favourites so far, Clark, Emeev, Ladd.
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Don't like the prices that much so just hit a few props for value. Piechota is the only ML so far. I do lean Ladd but don't like the price that much (will wait to see what the -3.5 price will be). I will probably hit Till if he gets back up to +160/+170ish.
 
Can somebody explain why Emmett is so juiced? Is it just that he's too strong to get submitted by Arantes, and that Arantes sucks too much to win without the submission?

Honestly Arantes kinda does suck but at these odds it feels like it's maybe worth a stab
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Can somebody explain why Emmett is so juiced? Is it just that he's too strong to get submitted by Arantes, and that Arantes sucks too much to win without the submission?

Honestly Arantes kinda does suck but at these odds it feels like it's maybe worth a stab
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I'm not sure what the love is for Emmett. He looked square against Holtzman and was followed up by being laughably overvalued against Green.
 
Emmett just has to score TDs and avoid the sub to win. And on the feet, while it will likely be close, Emmett seems to have a potential edge there as well. Hes a bit juiced for someone low level, but has many advantages stylistically.

LOL @ everyone on Artem. Ya'll are blowing up that Fili interview too. He sounds fine. Artem is not gonna win guys, sorry. That midget pocket punch winging shit made him look OK vs Cub who was happy to oblige a gritty fight, but Fili is gonna stay on the outside and crack Artem with kicks. Artem doesn't have the speed to step in and land anything more than maybe one shot before Fili is well out of range.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Emmett just has to score TDs and avoid the sub to win. And on the feet, while it will likely be close, Emmett seems to have a potential edge there as well. Hes a bit juiced for someone low level, but has many advantages stylistically.

LOL @ everyone on Artem. Ya'll are blowing up that Fili interview too. He sounds fine. Artem is not gonna win guys, sorry. That midget pocket punch winging shit made him look OK vs Cub who was happy to oblige a gritty fight, but Fili is gonna stay on the outside and crack Artem with kicks. Artem doesn't have the speed to step in and land anything more than maybe one shot before Fili is well out of range.
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The guy said he doesn't love fighting. Doesn't sound too different than Black Beast outside of the fact that he hasn't openly admitted that he's in it for money. Also he's such an emotional guy it's pretty easy to see why he's an underachiever. His personality blows.

And yes on paper that's the way the fight *should* play out. But when you bet on somebody who is dumb + emotionally weak they cannot be trusted to perform the way that they naturally should. Fili is a highly unreliable asset.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
The guy said he doesn't love fighting. Doesn't sound too different than Black Beast outside of the fact that he hasn't openly admitted that he's in it for money. Also he's such an emotional guy it's pretty easy to see why he's an underachiever. His personality blows.

And yes on paper that's the way the fight *should* play out. But when you bet on somebody who is dumb + emotionally weak they cannot be trusted to perform the way that they naturally should. Fili is a highly unreliable asset.
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Another Sherdog psychologist
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
Another Sherdog psychologist
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I could have just said Lobov is statistically the superior fighter and left it at that, but I was nice enough to explain to you why. Fili's personality is an extremely easy + straightforward read

Doesn't mean that Fili can't or won't win, just that he's clearly an unreliable underachiever. He still has enough talent such that maybe he should be fave anyway. But I would never bet on him in a million years and I think everybody that's doing so is making a mistake.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
I don't think the over is a lock. Fili has been stopped 3 times in 7 fights and the guys he went the distance against are complete non-threats to finish outside of an OKish submission game from Arantes.

Lobov has 5 decisions in a row, but all of those guys have shown better survival ability than Fili. Prior to that he had 3 straight KO's on TUF and a submission prior to TUF, and Fili seems closer to the survival ability of the 4 guys Lobov stopped than the 5 guys who went to decision.

Lobov definitely has a chance of finishing and it's not like Fili is dominant when fights go to decision. Also I really think Lobov seems like a much more focused + intelligent fighter based on their interviews:

Fili says he doesn't know what happened vs Kattar. Didn't really enjoy fighting for a while until recently. He trained because he felt obligated not because he wanted to. Says he thinks he is the best featherweight in the world with extremely shaky tone. He misses the early days of fighting when he got a lot of stoppage wins. Overall sounds like an emotional guy who just wants to feel good but doesn't truly love fighting



Lobov says he was sparring 4 times a day after helping Conor train for Floyd. Sounds like a dude who really loves fighting and is dedicated to improving.



Here talks about how he looks at past fights scientifically in order to improve.



I have little doubt that Fili is the more naturally talented fighter, which shows in stuff like reach advantage and the many losses on Lobov's record. But Lobov is the one who truly loves fighting and is dedicated to improving. His last 3 fights were two comfy decisions and a good loss vs Swanson-- my read is that he has improbably worked his way into being the better fighter of the duo.
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Agree with quite a few of your points, but I would be absolutely shocked to see Lobov finish Fili. He is certainly not submitting him and Lobov's power is extremely overrated from TUF. Fili has been legit finished by strikes once and that was a Yair headkick, which we know Lobov doesn't have in his arsenal. If someone finishes I would expect it to be Fili from a flashy strike or on the mat, but not likely. Fili dec most likely outcome imo.
 
Also Julian Erosa has 76" wingspan and Lobov KO'd his ass in 1 minute. Fili is better than Erosa but not by a ton, so there is no logical basis to presume that Lobov can't handle longer reaches.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
The guy said he doesn't love fighting. Doesn't sound too different than Black Beast outside of the fact that he hasn't openly admitted that he's in it for money. Also he's such an emotional guy it's pretty easy to see why he's an underachiever. His personality blows.

And yes on paper that's the way the fight *should* play out. But when you bet on somebody who is dumb + emotionally weak they cannot be trusted to perform the way that they naturally should. Fili is a highly unreliable asset.
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Need time stamp cause I didn't hear him say that. That is pretty bad if so but at least Fili still has all the tools to win where as BB never had a chance despite where he was mentally.

I'm not convinced at all Fili is "dumb". Losing to Kattar, who is a good fighter and proved to be a hard style matchup for Fili being able to match range and use sound boxing, doesn't mean hes dumb now. He just had his best career performance before the Kattar fight.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Also Julian Erosa has 76" wingspan and Lobov KO'd his ass in 1 minute. Fili is better than Erosa but not by a ton, so there is no logical basis to presume that Lobov can't handle longer reaches.
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Dude Fili is a lot better than Erosa lol
 
Stunna77 said:
Agree with quite a few of your points, but I would be absolutely shocked to see Lobov finish Fili. He is certainly not submitting him and Lobov's power is extremely overrated from TUF. Fili has been legit finished by strikes once and that was a Yair headkick, which we know Lobov doesn't have in his arsenal. If someone finishes I would expect it to be Fili from a flashy strike or on the mat, but not likely. Fili dec most likely outcome imo.
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I understand that Fili hasn't proven to have a shitty chin, but he also hasn't proven to survive against anybody. Dias, Arantes, and Kattar = pillowfists. He did survive until round 3 vs Holloway, but Holloway almost never gets early finishes.
 
Joseph Budden said:
Dude Fili is a lot better than Erosa lol
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He's much more talented but he's not a lot better bc he's too inconsistent. You can't be too pumped for a close decision win over Dias when he follows it up by getting dominated by Kattar.

Start watching at 7:21. He says he recently started enjoying fighting again, and talks about how he hated practice for a while. Sounds like his heart isn't too into it:

 
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