Been on vaycay and will need to read through the through to see where you guys are at. But I do have one by that I did a bit of research on..
Re: Sam Alvey +110 vs. Dadaevich Emeev -140
Sam Alvey is one of the most mercurial participants on the UFC roster. That is to say, he’s among the most limited fighters on the org, but consistently finds path to victory. This despite the fact that he is almost always at the disadvantage in every pertinent discipline in respect to his opponent’s skill set
He’s slow, unathletic, fights with a frustratingly low volume, is aesthetically displeasing — both physically and stylistically — and is predominantly a boxer. Worse still, he’s a boxer with a near exclusive counterpunching style. All of this is a hodgepodge of mediocrity. One where you would seemingly be relegated to the regional circuit of your stereotypical C-level alphabet soup promotion . Incredibly though, Sam has found great success despite his physical limitations and is thriving in the UFC in 2017. He is the winner of 5 of his last 6 and is coming off his biggest win today against Rashad Evans.
Having said that, he’ll be up against it this Saturday vs. Dadaevich Emeev. The Russian is currently 15-3 overall and has faced the cream of the crop in regards to eastern European middleweight fighters.
Emeev is a M-1 Global middleweight champion and Combat Sambo World Champion. He’s got excellent grappling, but despite his success he’s a lot like Alvey in his lack of athleticism. Like Alvey, he is not going to overwhelm you with volume and his technique leaves a lot to be desired. Moreover, he also has a hand speed deficiency. Though I do believe he is a bit quicker and more nimble than his foot slow Canadian opposition.
That said, Alvey is the beneficiary in the power department by a significant margin. Indeed, Alvey is a duel fisted KO machine with a cement laden left hand whereas Emeev is essentially a pillow gloved grappler in the mold of a David Branch.
Actually, Emeev’s style would better be described of a 30 pound heavier version of fellow countryman Rustam Khabilov.
Like Khabilov — another Sambo champion — the UFC debutante uses his rudimentary striking game as a smoke screen in order to bring the fight to the mat. From there he is tries to establish top control and land elbows. For all intents and purposes, he is a well rounded fighter without being overwhelmingly dominant in any single aspect of the game.
Stylistically, this fight actually is more beneficial to Alvey than one would imagine. This is for a few reasons. First of all, Emeev likes to implement his grappling but Sam has pretty ironclad TDD. Though he’s a credentialed Sambo specialist, Emeev doesn’t have the dominant TD ability of a Khabib or even the aforementioned Khabilov. Though he will hit the occasional Rustam suplex if he locks up with his man.
Though Emeev’s offensive striking is serviceable, his defense is A major issue of concern. From fight-to-fight he gets chewed up on the feet and in particular by his opponent’s left hand. For whatever reason he seemingly can’t avoid the left-handed shot. Unfortunately for Emeev, he’s facing a fighter whose best Sunday punch is the left hand.
I’ve done pretty extensive homework on this particular fight because of how close the line is. With this, I was left with two likely scenarios. The Russian finds the type of success that propelled Thales Leites to victory In his win over Alvey or Sammy hands out a free nap courtesy of that atomic left paw of his.
Further, Sam’s rate of success will dramatically increase if he can negate multiple TDAs. This as Emeev has shown issues with his cardio late in fights when unable to establish top position. Most likely a counterstrike with a fatigued Emeev falling into the clinch — with his hands down — searching for takedown or momentary reprieve.
If Emeev is victorious, I find it difficult to envision anything other than a hard fought decision win for him. This is a result of Alvey’s stellar TDD and granite chin — in combination to Emeev’s own feeble punching power.
Ergo, there isn’t much I like here as this fight is almost perfectly capped by the books.
I believe that this fight is dog or pass and depending on how the line moves in the next day I’ll make a pick or not. If I can get the Smilin’ Ginger at/or around > +125 I will pull the trigger. If not, I may just put a flier on Sam via TKO if it opens around +500 to +600 which is should.
If you like Emeev in this spot, the only way that I would bet it is x DEC at +165 as I just find it difficult to envision him finishing Alvey here. At least the odds are against it.
Pick: Alvey by second round TKO
