UFN 110 - Lewis vs Hunt - New Zealand

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Sup OG's.

I've got a few strong leans on this card I want to bounce of you guys.

I've been saying Lewis isn't a skilled fighter for quite a while now, he has racked up a good winning streak but when was the last time he actually looked impressive in one of his fights? Hunt got KO'd just 3 months ago, that's a big worry but I see Mark having a big advantage striking and I doubt either guy has the takedowns to take their opponent down, especially if they get fatigued later in the fight.
Mark as the dog here, I am big on Hunt in this one.

Tim Eliott at -200 seems to be a good play IMO. Am I missing something when thinking Tim is going to spam takedowns and make this fight awkward, where he thrives to get top position. I am expecting a 30-27 kind of performance here.

Pichel +300 for a decision, or at least -105 for the fight going to a decision. Good value if you ask me, anyone see this fight not going the distance?

Leaning towards Steele & Mokhtarian as well.
 
arrelione said:
Sup OG's.

I've got a few strong leans on this card I want to bounce of you guys.

I've been saying Lewis isn't a skilled fighter for quite a while now, he has racked up a good winning streak but when was the last time he actually looked impressive in one of his fights? Hunt got KO'd just 3 months ago, that's a big worry but I see Mark having a big advantage striking and I doubt either guy has the takedowns to take their opponent down, especially if they get fatigued later in the fight.
Mark as the dog here, I am big on Hunt in this one.

Tim Eliott at -200 seems to be a good play IMO. Am I missing something when thinking Tim is going to spam takedowns and make this fight awkward, where he thrives to get top position. I am expecting a 30-27 kind of performance here.

Pichel +300 for a decision, or at least -105 for the fight going to a decision. Good value if you ask me, anyone see this fight not going the distance?

Leaning towards Steele & Mokhtarian as well.
Click to expand...

I wanted to bet Mokhtarian due to my lack of belief in Moraga but I just can't do it after tape study, he's seriously bad and Moraga really needs this win
 
onC said:
If you're betting 20% of your BR, it doesnt take "a string of bad luck" to go broke, standard variance is enough.

Just FYI. Everyone can do what they want with their money. GL!
Click to expand...

I guess it's just wording, but "luck" = variance imo.

Think it comes down to what his goal is before he reduces the number of units per bet and dependent on his edge it's X% that he reaches that and Y that he goes broke over time. If he doesn't really need his BR but would get a substantial increase in utility/happiness by having a a decent bankroll to bet with it could very well be a completely rational way to approach it.

Probably not for most people, but it all depends on your goals, willingness to invest time etc.
 
arrelione said:
Sup OG's.

Pichel +300 for a decision, or at least -105 for the fight going to a decision. Good value if you ask me, anyone see this fight not going the distance?

Leaning towards Steele & Mokhtarian as well.
Click to expand...

How come you're backing a fighter who has been out for so long in Pichel? Why Mokhtarian over Moraga?

Steele I agree seems a smart play
 
Dogga said:
Volk is probably Australia's best prospect at the moment, this is a showcase fight for Volk. You right though Hirota is no mug
Click to expand...

Being australias biggest prospect doesnt historically really mean much. I think this is actually a tougher fight for him than i was expecting thought he would get a scrub.
 
4 team parlay I love :

Derek Brunson -280* vs Daniel Kelly
Hooker / Pearson starts round 2 -428*
Not Pichel inside distance -322*
Kunimoto / Ottow starts round 2 -359

$100 to win $180
 
Thunderflash500 said:
Just bet around 20u on Hunt. I think he's on another level skill wise. And In heavyweight age isn't as much of a factor. Wouldn't be shocked if he gasses and loses. But I have faith.
Click to expand...
tumblr_m6md4x3qtx1qh4gxx_zps062a066c.gif


20 units... on this fight... I call BS.

Show me the bet slip you absolute mug punter.
 
Thunderflash500 said:
Short answer, yes.

Assuming I'm looking at it the same way other people do. Which may not be the case. I decide on how much money I want to dedicate towards gambling. And that's what I consider my bankroll, with winnings/losses adding/subtracting from it. And I keep track of it with excel.

I'm fairly picky on what I bet on. I don't bet like most people here, because I can't. So when a fight does finally arrive that I think I understand I tend to bet a higher percent. I understand this could lead to a fast depletion of my bankroll with a string of bad luck. But its the only way, for how I think, that seems like a way to increase profit over the long run without taking many years. Because I might bet only 1 time a month or less. Sometimes more, but that's usually when I start losing...
Click to expand...

http://www.albionresearch.com/kelly/default.php

use this if you bet like that. it recommends more than most would bet but it will give you a unit size that if you bet more than your winning bet will actually turn into a loser. only use this if you have 1 bet and no other money in play. also the maximum it recommends is only correct if your read on the fight is correct. using this calc is a fast way to lose whole br if your figures are wrong
 
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Thunderflash500 said:
Short answer, yes.

Assuming I'm looking at it the same way other people do. Which may not be the case. I decide on how much money I want to dedicate towards gambling. And that's what I consider my bankroll, with winnings/losses adding/subtracting from it. And I keep track of it with excel.

I'm fairly picky on what I bet on. I don't bet like most people here, because I can't. So when a fight does finally arrive that I think I understand I tend to bet a higher percent. I understand this could lead to a fast depletion of my bankroll with a string of bad luck. But its the only way, for how I think, that seems like a way to increase profit over the long run without taking many years. Because I might bet only 1 time a month or less. Sometimes more, but that's usually when I start losing...
Click to expand...
I do the same.

Made like 6x my BR in the first year or so without betting much. Then went on a bad skid and Im back where I started.

I honestly dont care because my BR is like 0,5% of my monthly salary and I do this for fun... but I understand your feeling when you think "I can´t lose this".

I remember going all in on Mayweather vs Paquiao, strong on Floyd vs Maidana, Edgar vs Faber (Urijah had nothing), Hunt vs Mir... etc.

Im on Hunt fairly strong tonight but it is always scary betting against a guy like Lewis who has unreal power.
 
onC said:
If you're betting 20% of your BR, it doesnt take "a string of bad luck" to go broke, standard variance is enough.

Just FYI. Everyone can do what they want with their money. GL!
Click to expand...
at the current odds of 2.25. 20u is actually mathematically correct amount to bet here for maximum bankroll growth IF hunt wins 57% or more. if he wins less than 57% then you would be correct and variance would turn this into a losing play
 
arrelione said:
Sup OG's.

I've got a few strong leans on this card I want to bounce of you guys.

I've been saying Lewis isn't a skilled fighter for quite a while now, he has racked up a good winning streak but when was the last time he actually looked impressive in one of his fights? Hunt got KO'd just 3 months ago, that's a big worry but I see Mark having a big advantage striking and I doubt either guy has the takedowns to take their opponent down, especially if they get fatigued later in the fight.
Mark as the dog here, I am big on Hunt in this one.

Tim Eliott at -200 seems to be a good play IMO. Am I missing something when thinking Tim is going to spam takedowns and make this fight awkward, where he thrives to get top position. I am expecting a 30-27 kind of performance here.

Pichel +300 for a decision, or at least -105 for the fight going to a decision. Good value if you ask me, anyone see this fight not going the distance?

Leaning towards Steele & Mokhtarian as well.
Click to expand...

Don't agree about neither guy being effective if they tire.. Lewis has proven he can soldier on even when he's tired/losing. If hunt gasses, he'll end up on his butt getting donky-konged

Re: pichel-brown going distance...
It could go either way. Pichel has been out so long, injuries, etc... Brown might get him, imo....

I'm on board with Elliot, tho
 


I might have to put money on Dan because I know he will work his ass for that win and the crowd will be roaring for him.
 
Steele is gonna turn out the lights on this bum.

Bet the house on Steele $$$$$
 
People putting too much faith on that awkward fucker in Steele. I also bet on him, but small.
 
JDB said:
tumblr_m6md4x3qtx1qh4gxx_zps062a066c.gif


20 units... on this fight... I call BS.

Show me the bet slip you absolute mug punter.
Click to expand...

I'm in a foreign country, no computer, and don't feel like figuring out how to upload images with my phone.

Hunt is the better fighter, and the underdog. It's my only bet of the night and anytime soon. If I'm feeling less lazy I can figure out how to upload a picture later.
 
TheOneTrueKing said:
at the current odds of 2.25. 20u is actually mathematically correct amount to bet here for maximum bankroll growth IF hunt wins 57% or more. if he wins less than 57% then you would be correct and variance would turn this into a losing play
Click to expand...

I didn't get anywhere near 2.25...i need to switch sites.
 
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