UFN 105 - Lewis vs Browne - Halifax | Page 47

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 30, 2017.

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  1. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Jae Gibbz
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    I also think Carla's strategy was much more suited for the old scoring. Just making the case for the WMMA dog here fighting in her own country. I totally understand the angle of Carla getting takedowns and holding position. I would just never lay -330 on that, especially with the new scoring on enemy territory
     
    #921
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  2. mkess101 Gimme dat neck Khabib

    mkess101
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    Yeah man I'm already big on her -3.5. I take info from here into account for sure, but I always make my own plays. I've been doing this too long to just get swept away by what others think (even those whose opinions I respect a lot). Plus if I'm not doing my own capping, what the hell fun is it? Winning or losing a few hundred or even a few thousand dollars won't change my life, I'm not doing this to make a living. It's a hobby for me. I take it seriously, it's still real $, but I want to see how I do vs the books, not how everyone else does. (Though it doesn't stop me from hammering a good line I might have missed if someone here points it out LOL).
     
    #922
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  3. HeDucking Its Nier the Horizon

    HeDucking
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    Truth. Yeah I might spend some on a night out or something but the money is set aside for gambling. Its 100% written off and if I lose it, I lost it doing something I enjoyed. Im up for now but that could change, and this is a hobby. The house is gonna win longterm in 99% of cases, I wanna try and be the 1%.
     
    #923
  4. Bork Lazer Purple Belt

    Bork Lazer
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    My biggest issue is Carla has come off as a an insecure little girl since that TUF season. While it may seem semi inconsequential and not pertinent to the fight, sports psychology can play a huge factor into how someone performs on the big stage and I was much more impressed with Carla on the TUF show than in the UFC so far.

    Randa isn't the greatest WMMA fighter either but with the current odds, I can see her having a great performance in her home country against a very one dimensional, smaller fighter.
     
    #924
  5. OneWarrior1 NBA Capper

    OneWarrior1
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    Almost Browne time!
     
    #925
  6. Bork Lazer Purple Belt

    Bork Lazer
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    This too. If it were old rules, Carla would have a much bigger advantage but that being said I actually think "fight ends in a draw "at +5500 is a semi decent bet. I tossed. .3u on it.
     
    #926
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  7. cs02132 Green Belt

    cs02132
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    Small bets on Lombard and cezar for me

    Feel like hendricks doesn't give a shit anymore. He's been going hard his whole life, a champion in wrestling and MMA. Seems like he's mentally checked out

    If cezar doesn't get KOed, he should win a decision. also theodoreu's gf looks like a damn clown so I question his mentality


    2 bets based on assumptions lol so I went small
     
    #927
  8. SalvadorAllende Paper belt

    SalvadorAllende
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    On Cesar Ferreira
    Lombard
    Browne
    Browne-BB over 1.5 (not liking it tho).

    Lets get back on track!
     
    #928
  9. mkess101 Gimme dat neck Khabib

    mkess101
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    Certainly possible. Her TDD and ability to get up off her back will need to dramatically improve from what I've seen but sure wouldn't be the biggest shock ever or anything.
     
    #929
  10. HeDucking Its Nier the Horizon

    HeDucking
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    Where that girl Suarez at, she seems like a dependable money maker.
     
    #930
  11. mkess101 Gimme dat neck Khabib

    mkess101
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    I didn't bet her straight and pay that crazy juice. I took her -3.5 big at +150. I figure if she is getting TD's and controlling the fight, covering the spread is more likely than not. Even if Randa is active from bottom and let's say one judge likes that, we could see 30-27, 30-27, 28-29 split win for Carla or something. Or if Carla clearly gets two rounds but one round Randa does better, Carla still just needs one judge to give her that one too.

    Anyway to me it was an easy choice to bet the -3.5 at +150 over paying the juice at -285 or whatever on Carla.
     
    #931
  12. Ukram Silver Belt

    Ukram
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    unibet have it I think just worded difference, to win by finish - yes/no prop

    still with unibet limits its the same as unplayable, 888 and 32red are sister unibet sites so may have similar also worth a check.
     
    #932
  13. MMA Goodfella Gold Belt

    MMA Goodfella
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    @iGnP I'm sticking with Black Dynamite

    All picks

    Travis Browne > Derrick Lewis
    Hector Lombard > Johny Hendricks
    Gavin Tucker > Sam Sicilia
    Elias Theodorou > Cezar Ferreira
    Sara McMann > Gina Mazany
    Alessandro Ricci > Paul Felder
    Santiago Ponzinibbio > Nordine Taleb
    Carla Esparza > Randa Markos
    Aiemann Zahabi > Reginaldo Vieira
    Jack Marshman > Thiago Santos
     
    #933
  14. Xuh Black Belt

    Xuh
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    it's not quite the same AFAIK because the NSC bets mean if it goes to dec then the bet is void (at least if I've been following this right), while 'to win by finish' means you lose if it goes to dec, while 'to win by finish - no' would pay if it went to dec (or if their opponent finished them) but the odds are much suckier, eg Carla NSC is 1.61 at the moment, while Not Carla ITD is about 1.15. So Carla NSC is a low risk way to play on Carla winning ITD 'or your money back', pretty much
     
    #934
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  15. Stunna77 Orange Belt

    Stunna77
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    You thinking Theo and Ricci can out volume to decisions?
     
    #935
  16. mkess101 Gimme dat neck Khabib

    mkess101
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    Lombard NSC -195? Then hedge with a tiny Hendricks rd 3 bet? IDK...

    Mutante sub +750...little stab on that.

    Throwing together some last minute hail mary's and props for fun here. Gonna miss an hour of the event from 8-9 central for TWD, hope I don't miss any choice LB opportunities. But...keeping the wife happy is more important and we always watch together so I can miss an hour of the fights live. Will record and catch up quick with all the breaks to ff through.

    Good luck guys, hope everyone makes out well tonight!
     
    #936
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  17. lawmills2006 Green Belt

    lawmills2006
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    Unibet wholesales out its software to other smaller operators.

    32red sport, Stan james, mr green + leo vegas all have similar markets, worth trying those if limited on unibet.

    Betway also has the yes/no prop market also.
     
    #937
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  18. Jae Gibbz Black Belt

    Jae Gibbz
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    I was speaking in general, not addressing you personally. I'm still not fond of the -3.5 line. Good luck, though
     
    #938
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  19. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    i would be lol
     
    #939
  20. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    i have it at 6.05, actually ;)
     
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