UFC Vegas 87, JR vs Shamil Gaziev, March 2, UFC Apex, 1 PM eastern

[mkess101]

Was looking at just ML's for this card. 8 of the 11 fights have the favorites at least -300 (including a couple at -900 and one at -1200). That's a hell of a lot of perceived mismatches on one card.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Waiting to get better odds for Rozenstruik. I think he wins this fight 75% of the time

LOL if your edge is that massive you should have already max bet the line

You do realize that 75% means you cap him at -300

And his price is +135 right now. Books have him winning 43% of the time. And you need a better edge than 32%?

 

[Kwiatkowski18]

LOL if your edge is that massive you should have already max bet the line

You do realize that 75% means you cap him at -300

And his price is +135 right now. Books have him winning 43% of the time. And you need a better edge than 32%?

That guy can't be serious? That should be an instant max bet for him if he believes that strongly and is getting those odds.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I took a 0.75U play on the O1.5 in the main event @+155

Rozen is low volume and there is no real reason to think he can one shot Gaziev. I mean he can, but should not happen at to high clip.
Gaziev usually starts strong and Rozen has been finished in R1 quite a lot so that's of course the big worry, but this is Gazievs first 5 rounder and his biggest spot to date so he should pace himself a bit. Also, the 3 guys that finished Rozen in R1 are some of the more dangerous fighters in the division (maybe not Volkov).
Also, I thought Gaziev looked visibly gassed after the Buday fight, so he should think about his cardio.

I'm hoping for a grind fest against the fence with some moderate ground and pound from Gaziev.

Might be wrong, but at +155 I feel like this should be a good bet.

 

[sonhow]

Ercegs line....deserved?
Schnell usually game as fook unles he gets koed early. Narrative serms to be Schnell too inactive and too injured but I dunno. Havent seen a major difference. He could get koed by Nicolau 5 years ago just as easy as today. But Erceg aint like that. He is a scrapper. Just like Schnell.
Seems like a close fight on paper to me.

 

[Serge421]

Anders vs Pickett. TS spot on. The "we need filler" fight of the year. I'm trying to imagine being less excited for any potential fight on the roster.

Yes, WMMA included LOL.

We all know this is a KO waiting to happen

 

[mkess101]

We all know this is a KO waiting to happen

I hope not, at least not early. Anders over 52.5 sig strikes is my main play on Prizepicks.

 

[lefontes]

 

[lefontes]

Gaziev and Vinicius de Oliveira are huges

 

[Psychojoe86]

I'm not seeing many dog plays on this card. Wouldn't be surprised if favorites sweep or nearly sweep like 298

Im going all favorites... except for 2. I think Sioba and Rozen are worth stabs and won't ruin any parlays I have planned

 

[Psychojoe86]

So far, the parlay I like is

Basharat, Umar, Mokaev

Trying to figure out who else to add but I don't know enough about the other big favs to warrant confidence

 

[Serge421]

I hope not, at least not early. Anders over 52.5 sig strikes is my main play on Prizepicks.

Good luck Sherbrah

I have Anders by tko/decision for -350

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Good luck Sherbrah

I have Anders by tko/decision for -350

Anders is a grappling wizard now. Sub incoming

 

[Georges Hefner]

Rozenstruik is now +165 , but i was supposed to bet him at +135 according to the expert here

 

[Don Sharpe]

Vinicius Oliveira (19-3) Vs Bernardo Sopai (11-2)

The best way I can describe Vinicius Oliveira is a crazy wild Brazilian. It’s evident by his nickname “Lok Dog” and if you have seen him compete before you will know exactly what I mean.

He holds a strong record and has only been to decision twice in his 22 fights. It should be noted however that his 3 losses have all come via KO.

Bernardo “The Lion King” Sopai is taking this fight on short notice and also holds a strong record winning 10 of his victories by stoppage and he has only ever lost via decision.

Sopai is the younger man by 5 years but will face a 3 inch height disadvantage.

I believe both men to be very talented and I expect this fight to be won in dramatic fashion by either man. I have to side with Oliveira though because he is coming in on a full camp and I believe he has faced the tougher competition.

Pick: Vinicius Oliveira ML (-125)

 

[guesswhoseback]

Was looking at just ML's for this card. 8 of the 11 fights have the favorites at least -300 (including a couple at -900 and one at -1200). That's a hell of a lot of perceived mismatches on one card.

And more then likely at least 2 of the big dogs gonna win just gotta find the right one

 

[Georges Hefner]

And more then likely at least 2 of the big dogs gonna win just gotta find the right one

Im betting big on Jairzinho , already placed 200. Im gonna put at least 500 . Biggest market overcorrection I’ve seen this year

 

[guesswhoseback]

Im betting big on Jairzinho , already placed 200. Im gonna put at least 500 . Biggest market overcorrection I’ve seen this year

I was talking about the dogs facing a -300 or higher fighter this even but good luck man

 

[Georges Hefner]

I was talking about the dogs facing a -300 or higher fighter this even but good luck man

That Bekzat guy and Alex Perez are 50/50 fights at best. Those odds make no sense now

 

[xhaydenx]

Mokaev ITD for 2.00 is crazy.

The last time Perez won a fight, Mokaev hadn't even turned pro yet . . .

Liking the odds for Zahabi, Petrino, and Ribeiro as well.