UFC Vegas 73: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill, May 20

[Kenny95]

haven't heard much said about MJ vs carlos ferreira. MJ at +130 is tempting. MJ had a good showing against mullarkey and just beat diakese who was having a career resurgence himself. Hell ferreira is older than MJ and MJ has been around long enough to work on his tdd but his sub defense is still suspect but carlos is on a 3 fight losing skid and has been stopped in his last 2 fights which is just as dangerous because MJ can still crack.

 

[guidi]

Cosce looked awful at the weigh ins, super drained it was definitely a rough cut, gonna play Urbina after seeing that

 

[Georges Hefner]

On edmen at +220.

wide line. Fluffy is only the favorite because people think edmen will gas. What if he gets an early finish or wins the first 2?

Fluffy is the favorite because he’s the much better striker and grappler. I have a gut feeling that Anthony is going to knock Edmen out early, like he did to Jordan Wright. I rate Edmen’s striking around the same level as Jordan Wright. Fluffy was -265 against Jordan Wright, I think there’s some value at -210 current odds

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Fluffy is the favorite because he’s the much better striker and grappler. I have a gut feeling that Anthony is going to knock Edmen out early, like he did to Jordan Wright. I rate Edmen’s striking around the same level as Jordan Wright. Fluffy was -265 against Jordan Wright, I think there’s some value at -210 current odds

Much better? Nah bruh. Edmen is solid. If he had cardio he would be the fav. Fluffy getting knocked out by Marcus perez. People giving him way too much respect. Constantly getting rocked. -300 was dumb

edmen is 25 and moved to extreme couture. He’s only going to get better

Sharp money has spoken. Fluffy better watch that liver

 

[Georges Hefner]

Much better? Nah bruh. Edmen is solid. If he had cardio he would be the fav. Fluffy getting knocked out by Marcus perez. People giving him way too much respect. Constantly getting rocked. -300 was dumb

edmen is 25 and moved to extreme couture. He’s only going to get better

Sharp money has spoken. Fluffy better watch that liver

Meh i don’t see anything special in Edmen. Just another fighter who’s fighting for his job. Anthony is the former LFA champ, he has championship experience and is older by 4 years. He’s way more developed and took less damage in career

 

['Suga Daddy']

Meh i don’t see anything special in Edmen. Just another fighter who’s fighting for his job. Anthony is the former LFA champ, he has championship experience and is older by 4 years. He’s way more developed and took less damage in career

Hernandez isn't the much better striker dude, its pretty even on the feet or even slight advantage to Edmen. For context i have a half unit on Hernandez R3/DEC

 

[Thesnake101]

haven't heard much said about MJ vs carlos ferreira. MJ at +130 is tempting. MJ had a good showing against mullarkey and just beat diakese who was having a career resurgence himself. Hell ferreira is older than MJ and MJ has been around long enough to work on his tdd but his sub defense is still suspect but carlos is on a 3 fight losing skid and has been stopped in his last 2 fights which is just as dangerous because MJ can still crack.

MJ should have the edge on the feet, but if he finds himself on the mat I fully expect him to get subbed. Diego is good at taking the back and we know that as soon as that happens MJ folds.

 

[mkess101]

Much better? Nah bruh. Edmen is solid. If he had cardio he would be the fav. Fluffy getting knocked out by Marcus perez. People giving him way too much respect. Constantly getting rocked. -300 was dumb

edmen is 25 and moved to extreme couture. He’s only going to get better

Sharp money has spoken. Fluffy better watch that liver

I actually think Edmen is the better striker but it won't matter. Fluffy has been a grappling beast lately and Edmen has never shown the ability that I can remember to even slow down a grappler of Fluffy's caliber, let alone stop them.

I don't think Fluffy stands with Edmen for anything more than setting up entries to impose his grappling. Which will expose Edmen's sub par gas tank (while Fluffy has a superb one).

-300 maybe was too steep, but -200 isn't imo. Unless I'm wrong about Fluffy's gameplan and he actually stands with Edmen, I expect a grappling clinic similar to what he did to Barriault and Fremd (and I think both of them may be better grapplers than Edmen).

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I actually think Edmen is the better striker but it won't matter. Fluffy has been a grappling beast lately and Edmen has never shown the ability that I can remember to even slow down a grappler of Fluffy's caliber, let alone stop them.

I don't think Fluffy stands with Edmen for anything more than setting up entries to impose his grappling. Which will expose Edmen's sub par gas tank (while Fluffy has a superb one).

-300 maybe was too steep, but -200 isn't imo. Unless I'm wrong about Fluffy's gameplan and he actually stands with Edmen, I expect a grappling clinic similar to what he did to Barriault and Fremd (and I think both of them may be better grapplers than Edmen).

Think edmen can stop his tds and even get up. Just always questionable cardio. First round will be his best. How long before he gasses?

He’s got good kicks and being a southpaw the liver kick will be there. Anyone fighting fluffy should be targeting the body

a few fights here where I’ll bet wide dog side and possibly live bet fav at better price

 

[Kenny95]

MJ should have the edge on the feet, but if he finds himself on the mat I fully expect him to get subbed. Diego is good at taking the back and we know that as soon as that happens MJ folds.

and if marc diakiese was 0-6 on tds then why would a 38 year old bjj specialist coming off 3 losses (2 by ko) do any better? if we're gamblers playing the odds I see value on MJ. +130 is nice underdog money

 

[mkess101]

Think edmen can stop his tds and even get up. Just always questionable cardio. First round will be his best. How long before he gasses?

He’s got good kicks and being a southpaw the liver kick will be there. Anyone fighting fluffy should be targeting the body

a few fights here where I’ll bet wide dog side and possibly live bet fav at better price

IDK, Fluffy has showed me a lot with how relentless he is when he wants to force grappling. He's figured out he can fight that way for 15 straight minutes, and that's usually the biggest hurdle guys who want to grapple have when it comes to how hard they'll push to force it.

The gas tank does come into play too for sure unless there's a rd 1 stoppage either way. Edmen gassed hard vs Brunson literally after one round of having to carry his weight. If Fluffy does force that pace and make him work, how does Edmen last more than 6-7 minutes?

I admittedly always skew toward grapplers vs strikers when I see a disparity and I'm confident the grappler will try to force that type of fight (which I am here).

 

[jnes]

Fluffy is the favorite because he’s the much better striker and grappler. I have a gut feeling that Anthony is going to knock Edmen out early, like he did to Jordan Wright. I rate Edmen’s striking around the same level as Jordan Wright. Fluffy was -265 against Jordan Wright, I think there’s some value at -210 current odds

Bro Edmen is on a different level than Wright cmon. Edmen KO'd Tavares in the first round, Wrights best win is Jamie Pickett lolol.

 

[Jinx_AA]

and if marc diakiese was 0-6 on tds then why would a 38 year old bjj specialist coming off 3 losses (2 by ko) do any better? if we're gamblers playing the odds I see value on MJ. +130 is nice underdog money

ferreira 0-3 against gamrot , Gillespie , and beneil …. U think MJ beats any of them ?!?
U think MJ beats Pettis ?

ferriera way more skilled …. Just question his heart …

 

[Tebowned]

ferreira 0-3 against gamrot , Gillespie , and beneil …. U think MJ beats any of them ?!?
U think MJ beats Pettis ?

ferriera way more skilled …. Just question his heart …

Michael beat Beneil imo lol

http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6402/Beneil-Dariush-vs-Michael-Johnson

 

[Jinx_AA]

Michael beat Beneil imo lol

http://mmadecisions.com/decision/6402/Beneil-Dariush-vs-Michael-Johnson

8 years ago …. Interesting enough though - I watch every card and I can’t recall that fight to comment on in

Johnson definitely a live dog …. Because of Ferreira’s heart ….Ferreira way more skilled but he quits

I can’t get Johnson losing to guida out of my head though …. That’s tough one for me

 

[GambleDaddy]

UFC Vegas 73

**Parlays: **
1) **Over 2.5 rds (Demopolous vs Kowalkiewicz) + Over 2.5 rds (Ducote vs Godinez)**: **-128.** Risk 2 units to win 1.56
2) **Nascimento + Dern + Hernandez: **+237.** **Risk 1 unit to win 2.37 units** **
3) **Borashev ML + (Godinez vs Ducote goes to decision): ****+114**: Risk 1.5 units to win 1.71 units

**The Dog Pound**
1) **Chase Hooper ML +110**. Risk 1 unit to win 1.1 units
2) **Emily Ducote ML +135**. Risk 1 unit to win 1.35 units
3) **Hooper + Ducote Parlay: +381**: Risk .5 unit to win 1.9 units
4) **Andre Fialho ML****** +185**:** Risk 1 unit** ****
5) **Gil Urbina ML** **-105**: Risk .80 unit ****

**Prop Daddies: **
1) Vanessa Demopolous to win by Decision **+350. Risk .75 units to win 2.63 units** (this line is off, fight to go to decision is -300, and i think this fight goes to decision, so if we have a 50/50 fight odds wise and it is favored to go to decision, i think we take the +350.
2) Vanessa Demopolous to win by submission **+450. Risk .5 unit to win 2.5 units.** (Hedging the above bet, she either wins this fight by sub or decision)
3) Borashev by First Round KO **+400: Risking .5 unit to win 2 units **
4) Borashev to win by KO ( in any round) **+140 : Risking .5 unit to win .7 units**
5) Fialho to win by KO** +350: Risking .5 unit to win 1.75 units**
6) Fialho to win by 1st round KO **+700: Risking .25 unit to win 1.75 units **
7) **Loopy over 57.5 Sig strikes: +100**: Risk 1 unit - *Pick of the Fucking Day *
8) **Ducote over 59.5 sig strikes: -115**: Risk 1.15 unit -** ***Pick of the Fucking Day too ***

**LongShot Parlays: **
1) Ducote + Fialho + Johnson + Hooper + Demopolous = **+6794 : Risking .15 unit to win 10.19 units** (had a $15 free bet)
2) Ducote + Hooper + Demopolous: **+911: Risk .25 units to win 2.53 units**
3) Borashev by KO + Fialho by KO: **+890: Risk .2 units to win 1.78 units **
4) Dog Pound Parlay: **+2500: Risk .1 unit **

 

[mkess101]

8 years ago …. Interesting enough though - I watch every card and I can’t recall that fight to comment on in

Johnson definitely a live dog …. Because of Ferreira’s heart ….Ferreira way more skilled but he quits

I can’t get Johnson losing to guida out of my head though …. That’s tough one for me

CDF is the more skilled grappler, not striker. The issue is that CDF doesn't have good entries or TD's.

This fight probably boils down to whether CDF can figure out a way to get MJ down. If he can, sub is very likely. If not, can easily see MJ piecing him up from the outside.

Would not pay juice on 38 year old CDF here...

 

[Georges Hefner]

Bro Edmen is on a different level than Wright cmon. Edmen KO'd Tavares in the first round, Wrights best win is Jamie Pickett lolol.

I think Edmen and Jordan are both dangerous in the 1st round. But its against low level competition. Tavares was coming off layoff and beating to Adesanya. Other than that his wins are horrible. Most of his opponents don’t have wikipedia pages. I could barely find any video footage of Edmen’s regional and amateur career. Which is strange considering the era we live in. This isn’t early UFC days Most of Edmen’s past opponents have retired

 

[Georges Hefner]

UFC Vegas 73

**Parlays: **
1) **Over 2.5 rds (Demopolous vs Kowalkiewicz) + Over 2.5 rds (Ducote vs Godinez)**: **-128.** Risk 2 units to win 1.56
2) **Nascimento + Dern + Hernandez: **+237.** **Risk 1 unit to win 2.37 units** **
3) **Borashev ML + (Godinez vs Ducote goes to decision): ****+114**: Risk 1.5 units to win 1.71 units

**The Dog Pound**
1) **Chase Hooper ML +110**. Risk 1 unit to win 1.1 units
2) **Emily Ducote ML +135**. Risk 1 unit to win 1.35 units
3) **Hooper + Ducote Parlay: +381**: Risk .5 unit to win 1.9 units
4) **Andre Fialho ML****** +185**:** Risk 1 unit** ****
5) **Gil Urbina ML** **-105**: Risk .80 unit ****

**Prop Daddies: **
1) Vanessa Demopolous to win by Decision **+350. Risk .75 units to win 2.63 units** (this line is off, fight to go to decision is -300, and i think this fight goes to decision, so if we have a 50/50 fight odds wise and it is favored to go to decision, i think we take the +350.
2) Vanessa Demopolous to win by submission **+450. Risk .5 unit to win 2.5 units.** (Hedging the above bet, she either wins this fight by sub or decision)
3) Borashev by First Round KO **+400: Risking .5 unit to win 2 units **
4) Borashev to win by KO ( in any round) **+140 : Risking .5 unit to win .7 units**
5) Fialho to win by KO** +350: Risking .5 unit to win 1.75 units**
6) Fialho to win by 1st round KO **+700: Risking .25 unit to win 1.75 units **
7) **Loopy over 57.5 Sig strikes: +100**: Risk 1 unit - *Pick of the Fucking Day *
8) **Ducote over 59.5 sig strikes: -115**: Risk 1.15 unit -** ***Pick of the Fucking Day too ***

**LongShot Parlays: **
1) Ducote + Fialho + Johnson + Hooper + Demopolous = **+6794 : Risking .15 unit to win 10.19 units** (had a $15 free bet)
2) Ducote + Hooper + Demopolous: **+911: Risk .25 units to win 2.53 units**
3) Borashev by KO + Fialho by KO: **+890: Risk .2 units to win 1.78 units **
4) Dog Pound Parlay: **+2500: Risk .1 unit **

wrong thread sir

 

[sonhow]

Historically foolish to not bet MJ as dog. Only legit dog loss to Khabib. A fight where he landed some shots early. Mullarkey a robbery and Brookins tuf finale so doesnt really count.