UFC Vegas 73: Mackenzie Dern vs. Angela Hill, May 20

[StewDogg11]

Dude the sub play sucks. I don’t care if it hits. There’s really no argument you can make for +150 to be value here

This is what I love about Sherdog. Basically saying even if you end up being completely right you’re still a f’ing idiot.

 

[MixMartialFarts]

It definitely is, used to cost me a lot of money. I get the odd tinge of regret like not betting Brown at the weekend but I'd win like 1 in 5 in the old boys

People can fall off a cliff fast at that age.

EXACTLY.

You never know exactly when they will show up looking old but it happens almost overnight. Look at Tony Ferguson, still looked pretty good against Gathje at 37 years old, 6 months later looks horrible against Olivera and has looked like a shell of his old self in every fight since.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

This is what I love about Sherdog. Basically saying even if you end up being completely right you’re still a f’ing idiot.

No, I’m saying there’s no value at that price.
do you know what implied probability is?

do you want to argue that it is? Please. Go ahead and tell my why +150 sub has value and why it’s not a bad bet.

 

[StewDogg11]

No, I’m saying there’s no value at that price.
do you know what implied probability is?

do you want to argue that it is? Please. Go ahead and tell my why +150 sub has value and why it’s not a bad bet.

Yes but you determined it from your opinion.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Yes but you determined it from your opinion.

let me know why dern sub +150 is +ev. Love to hear it

fiahlo rd 1 ko is +800. There are better bets to be made even on this bad card

 

[Jasper_RB81]

demopolous lines don't make sense. Demop by decision is +350 and she is +450 by submission. You are better off putting half a unit on each bet rather than taking demopolous straight up at +110

Demopoulus dropped that Andersson Silva wanna be with an overhand in her last fight. I wouldn't rule out a KO. She doesn't have good technic but she throws with bad intentions.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

• The small bet i made for sub is to get my money back for the 1st rnd sub. Im more riding on a 1st rnd sub win.

  I know all her subs come in rd 1 but these are against bums. Nunes was washed when they fought.
  
  I actually think a later sub could be live when Angie is tired and more prone to make mistakes
  
  

 

[Georges Hefner]

Fluffy is -200 now. A far cry from the initial -330. Strange line movement.

 

[Macaque]

Fluffy is -200 now. A far cry from the initial -330. Strange line movement.

News of injury?

 

[Thesnake101]

News of injury?

Probably just Edmen believers.

 

[mkess101]

Fluffy is -200 now. A far cry from the initial -330. Strange line movement.

Makes no sense. Fluffy has become a relentless grappler with good TD's and cardio. Good overall grappling, and the willingness to make that his gameplan vs strikers. Edmen has never showed the ability to stop someone as skilled as Fluffy from imposing their grappling on him.

There's value now at -200 imo.

 

[jnes]

Thoughts on Buckley/Fiahlo U1.5 at +100?

 

[Georges Hefner]

Makes no sense. Fluffy has become a relentless grappler with good TD's and cardio. Good overall grappling, and the willingness to make that his gameplan vs strikers. Edmen has never showed the ability to stop someone as skilled as Fluffy from imposing their grappling on him.

There's value now at -200 imo.

Oh yes definitely. Fluffy SUB is +150, i feel like it’s too low. I might play it though

 

[Bakayoko]

Thoughts on Buckley/Fiahlo U1.5 at +100?

Sounds good,but beware,both men have stated in their interviews that they want to "fight smart"

 

[Thesnake101]

Cosce missed weight and looked like shit, gonna be pissed if the fight gets scrapped cuz I got Urbina on some parlays.

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

Cosce missed weight and looked like shit, gonna be pissed if the fight gets scrapped cuz I got Urbina on some parlays.

I was about to ask why the weigh ins are happing on a thursday. I think I need vacations.

 

[Kenny95]

Fluffy is -200 now. A far cry from the initial -330. Strange line movement.

Probably just Edmen believers.

Makes no sense. Fluffy has become a relentless grappler with good TD's and cardio. Good overall grappling, and the willingness to make that his gameplan vs strikers. Edmen has never showed the ability to stop someone as skilled as Fluffy from imposing their grappling on him.

There's value now at -200 imo.

watching fluffy destroy his last few opponents i made a mental note to myself to bet big on him as long as he wasnt fighting a top contender, no matter the odds, he fought so smart and showed really high level offensive grappling. however, seeing him weigh in shows that he is significantly smaller than Edmen and he really is on the smaller side of MW... then i rewatched some tape and it reminded me that fluffy certainly can and has lost. Edmen has KO power and even if he doesnt find the KO he could win a round 10-8 or have fluffy on wobbly legs for the later rounds and win a decision. -210 is pretty good, way better than -300, but I've talked myself out of a big bet on fluffy and I dont even think that highly of edmen.

 

[Oblivian]

watching fluffy destroy his last few opponents i made a mental note to myself to bet big on him as long as he wasnt fighting a top contender, no matter the odds, he fought so smart and showed really high level offensive grappling. however, seeing him weigh in shows that he is significantly smaller than Edmen and he really is on the smaller side of MW... then i rewatched some tape and it reminded me that fluffy certainly can and has lost. Edmen has KO power and even if he doesnt find the KO he could win a round 10-8 or have fluffy on wobbly legs for the later rounds and win a decision. -210 is pretty good, way better than -300, but I've talked myself out of a big bet on fluffy and I dont even think that highly of edmen.

I like fight to end ITD honestly. Edmen either gets him out of their early of Fluffy probably gets his neck later.

 

[Thesnake101]

watching fluffy destroy his last few opponents i made a mental note to myself to bet big on him as long as he wasnt fighting a top contender, no matter the odds, he fought so smart and showed really high level offensive grappling. however, seeing him weigh in shows that he is significantly smaller than Edmen and he really is on the smaller side of MW... then i rewatched some tape and it reminded me that fluffy certainly can and has lost. Edmen has KO power and even if he doesnt find the KO he could win a round 10-8 or have fluffy on wobbly legs for the later rounds and win a decision. -210 is pretty good, way better than -300, but I've talked myself out of a big bet on fluffy and I dont even think that highly of edmen.

It boils down to how confident you feel about Edmen's defensive grappling since that will dictate how the fight develops. The Hermansson fight wasn't a bad look, but him just falling apart like that to Imamov is a big cause of concern which I think does justify the current line.

But like @Oblivian said, FDGTD at -190 is a better play than just picking Hernandez ML imo. I'm personally going with Hernandez ITD instead just for the plus money however.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

On edmen at +220.

wide line. Fluffy is only the favorite because people think edmen will gas. What if he gets an early finish or wins the first 2?