Here is my breakdown for Silva/Mein:
Both Erick Silva and Jordan Mein have had long UFC careers. Silva since 2011 and Mein since 2013. During this time both guys have been solid and exciting fighters but neither have been able to string together more than a couple of wins and break into top 10 territory. Now with both guys on the downslope of their careers, a run for either doesn't seem likely.
Mein has dropped his last three fights. Despite looking competitive in the first round of each fight (and very good in the first of the Alves fight), Mein's volume and intensity significantly drops off afterwards. Against Alves, this meant being a bit too defensive and relying on a high guard that Alves exploited with a nice liver kick. Against Meek Mill and Belal Muhammad, Mein was unable to prevent being outgrappled and controlled for the final two rounds. This is particularly troubling in the Muhammad fight since Mein looked especially conservative with his energy usage in the first round and still was at a significant fatigue disadvantage in the later rounds.
Despite being only 28 years old Mein's slowdown doesn't seem too surprising. The man has been fighting professionally since 2006 and his first fight listed is in 2002. That's about 11 years of professional service and 42 fights. One would imagine his body might be slowing down now. More proof of that is Mein retirement after the KO loss to Alves and near 2 year absence.
Erick Silva has had a rough going in the past couple of years. Dropping 3 out of the last 4 fights, and not looking like the aggressive and frenetic fighter that he used to (and a noticeable loss of leanness) has got people wondering whether the USADA era has led to a significant decline for Silva.
Whether or not USADA is a factor, one would expect at this point for Silva to slow down regardless. Now 33 years old and in fighting service for 12 years, Silva has had to alter his fighting style recently to stay competitive. After getting faceplant KO'd spectacularly by Nordine Taleb, Silva has tightened up his striking considerably. Against Chagas, Silva was able to control the range and throw shorter and more balanced strikes than his former self. Against Medeiros, he added a bit more defensive movement and feints.
With the longer reach and more impressive striking performances in his resume, it would seem like Mein has an advantage on the feet here. A few years ago, Mein's varied offense and aggression would seem to be a very tough matchup for Silva's lack of defense. Now, with both guys lowering their volume and aggression, the striking is a bit more even.
After the first round, this fight will be Silva's fight to lose though. Silva doesn't slow down quite as much as Mein does come round 2, and was even to get a finish against Chagas in Rd3. Mein is just too content in his past 3 losses to defend and react to what his opponent is doing in the later part of the fight to be reliable at round winning. The fact that he's been outgrappled in the last 2 is also a problem as Silva is a submission threat for all three rounds.
Silva at underdog odds looks enticing in this spot. If Mein's decline and lowered volume is a trend, the O1.5 rounds looks pretty nice too at -130. Both guys aren't the wild go-forward strikers they once were, and despite Silva's suspect chin and propensity get sent to the mat often (whether he gets his clean or not), his recovery isn't too bad. A bad early stoppage against Medeiros was a lucky hit for bettors fading Silva's chin in his last fight and Yancy was throwing full force in that 2nd round.