UFC FOX 26 - RDA vs Lawler - Winnipeg

[Joseph Budden]

I see you bumped the line up to -150

Think this is the best play on the card imo

Nothing too crazy for me this event esp since I see a lot of props with value but its now my 3rd highest risk behind Lamas -3.5 and Laprise. Hoping late money comes in on Platinum Mike and Ponz will get up there too

 

[Stunna77]

Dude. I bet Canon. Jan looked really good.

Canon looked ok. Not as good as last fight IMO. Jan definitely looked more defined

I my arm shakes when I flex my biceps also

I saw pics and thought Jan looked damn good while flexing, but then watching the video I thought his body language looked like he was stuggling a bit. Looking a little stressed, wiping his face, looking relieved when weight announced, shaking, etc. Cannon looked lean to me, he has always said he could make 185, but likes the speed advantage at 205 and his power is clearly fine for the weight class.

 

[SBJJ]

I saw pics and thought Jan looked damn good while flexing, but then watching the video I thought his body language looked like he was stuggling a bit. Looking a little stressed, wiping his face, looking relieved when weight announced, shaking, etc. Cannon looked lean to me, he has always said he could make 185, but likes the speed advantage at 205 and his power is clearly fine for the weight class.

Go flex a double bicep in the mirror. Your arms shake. He physically looked good and made weight with no towel. 90% of the fighters didn't smile so I don't take too much into him looking serious. He did actually flex while most fighters now seem to just put their arms up without flexing.

You could also say Cannon looked very serious and almost irritable. But I'm just commenting on the way they looked physically.

But hey, maybe I just saw it wrong

 

[Joseph Budden]

Weight cuts aside trusting Cannon is not #elite. Besides Igor fight, Jan's striking has always been decent. Decent enough to turn Gus into a panic wrestler. And who knows how Cannon deals with Jan's kickboxing attack, especially when he fights with a very traditional boxing style that I can see Jan exposing with hard body kicks

 

[Stunna77]

Go flex a double bicep in the mirror. Your arms shake. He physically looked good and made weight with no towel. 90% of the fighters didn't smile so I don't take too much into him looking serious. He did actually flex while most fighters now seem to just put their arms up without flexing.

You could also say Cannon looked very serious and almost irritable. But I'm just commenting on the way they looked physically.

But hey, maybe I just saw it wrong

At work right now and don't want to bust out of my dress shirt...I'll have to take your word on that

 

[SBJJ]

At work right now and don't want to bust out of my dress shirt...I'll have to take your word on that

Lol. Don't be ripping that shirt dude. And don't get caught shirtless in the John flexing. It's not a good look.

 

[SBJJ]

Weight cuts aside trusting Cannon is not #elite. Besides Igor fight, Jan's striking has always been decent. Decent enough to turn Gus into a panic wrestler. And who knows how Cannon deals with Jan's kickboxing attack, especially when he fights with a very traditional boxing style that I can see Jan exposing with hard body kicks

Yea. I'm not feeling Cannon so much

 

[Sham5916910]

Jan struggled with cummins standing in patches and he also got staggered by devin clarke.

 

[SBJJ]

Jan struggled with cummins standing in patches and he also got staggered by devin clarke.

Because they were coming in crazy after takedowns. I doubt Cannon does that. Cannon might fight just the fight Jan is most comfortable with

 

[Joseph Budden]

Jan struggled with cummins standing in patches and he also got staggered by devin clarke.

Hope you at least got enough mojo back to use Lamas in that double.

Jan owned Cummins bad before the wrestling started wearing him down, and he owned Clark. Its not surprising when the better athlete wrecklessly comes forward all fight to get hit, but the whole fight Jan was calm and in control not letting that garbage get to him.

Different styles though. Cannon will do no wrestling. Cannon will not bring the wreckless forward movement of Clark. Hes gonna try to tactfully box, like always. That high guard is begging for Jan to rip his favored body kick. Doesn't seem like the time is right to be trusting Cannon at this price when hes never had to deal with someone who can use kicks to the effectiveness of Jan

 

[Stunna77]

Hope you at least got enough mojo back to use Lamas in that double.

Jan owned Cummins bad before the wrestling started wearing him down, and he owned Clark. Its not surprising when the better athlete wrecklessly comes forward all fight to get hit, but the whole fight Jan was calm and in control not letting that garbage get to him.

Different styles though. Cannon will do no wrestling. Cannon will not bring the wreckless forward movement of Clark. Hes gonna try to tactfully box, like always. That high guard is begging for Jan to rip his favored body kick. Doesn't seem like the time is right to be trusting Cannon at this price when hes never had to deal with someone who can use kicks to the effectiveness of Jan

Jan's body kick so telegraphed though, switches stances only to throw that exact strike. Cannon implements measured forward pressure and uses a lot of fients, which I think will be effective to keep Jan reactive, will also gas him faster. I think Jan needs to wrestle to win and doesn't have the cardio to do so. Cannon also full time and at a legit camp for the first time in his career working on his wrestling. Should see improvements all around.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Jan's body kick so telegraphed though, switches stances only to throw that exact strike. Cannon implements measured forward pressure and uses a lot of fients, which I think will be effective to keep Jan reactive, will also gas him faster. I think Jan needs to wrestle to win and doesn't have the cardio to do so. Cannon also full time and at a legit camp for the first time in his career working on his wrestling. Should see improvements all around.

Its not gonna be telegraphed if Jan can get his hands going though cause its only gonna incentivize Cannon to keep the high guard he likes. And Jan has good hands on his best days. Cannon never having to fight a style like this gives you no reasonable suggestions to how the mixture of good hands and hard kicks is going to effect his game. I've seen plenty of talk about that bad performance against Igor, but not enough about him turning Gus into a panic wrestler in a fight where his hands looked very sharp.

Jan cardio is def the biggest worry but even with that hes so used to tiring from wrestling. Im curious if a methodical striking match like this one will allow him to pace himself in a way he can edge 2 of 3 rounds and keep his stamina manageable.

Also, regarding Cannon camp, could be wrong as i've not extensively looked into these things as much as I should, but didn't he have a minor surgery fairly recently?

 

[Sham5916910]

Surgery end of aug was back training full on end of sept

 

[Stunna77]

Its not gonna be telegraphed if Jan can get his hands going though cause its only gonna incentivize Cannon to keep the high guard he likes. And Jan has good hands on his best days. Cannon never having to fight a style like this gives you no reasonable suggestions to how the mixture of good hands and hard kicks is going to effect his game. I've seen plenty of talk about that bad performance against Igor, but not enough about him turning Gus into a panic wrestler in a fight where his hands looked very sharp.

Jan cardio is def the biggest worry but even with that hes so used to tiring from wrestling. Im curious if a methodical striking match like this one will allow him to pace himself in a way he can edge 2 of 3 rounds and keep his stamina manageable.

Also, regarding Cannon camp, could be wrong as i've not extensively looked into these things as much as I should, but didn't he have a minor surgery fairly recently?

He broke his hand and had surgery, believe he was back to training full time at MMA Lab end of Sept. Think he went full time end of May, so had 5-6 weeks there before Nick and roughly 10 weeks for this camp. He is such a great athlete and was previously only training around 10-hour work days that I think he can show improvements in that time frame. Obviously it would of been nice had he been training since his last fight, but still any wrestling improvements will go along way. Wouldn't mind seeing him plant Jan TBH, he has nasty GnP from top position.

 

[Joseph Budden]

Surgery end of aug was back training full on end of sept

Yeah so thats not a concern really. I think Cannon takes this just won't trust him til I see how his very boxing-centric style deals with someone who can kick. I like the over and put a whopping .12u-ish on Jan dec as a value prop I liked when it opened +300

 

[Joseph Budden]

He broke his hand and had surgery, believe he was back to training full time at MMA Lab end of Sept. Think he went full time end of May, so had 5-6 weeks there before Nick and roughly 10 weeks for this camp. He is such a great athlete and was previously only training around 10-hour work days that I think he can show improvements in that time frame. Obviously it would of been nice had he been training since his last fight, but still any wrestling improvements will go along way. Wouldn't mind seeing him plant Jan TBH, he has nasty GnP from top position.

Agreed that for sure Cannon should have the bigger upside and should be improving which is a confidence increase, especially when all Jan was talking about before the Clark fight was how much hes been working wrestling which likely won't matter here unless we're all underestimating the size difference. We'll get a better feel for that at face offs hopefully

 

[Stunna77]

Agreed that for sure Cannon should have the bigger upside and should be improving which is a confidence increase, especially when all Jan was talking about before the Clark fight was how much hes been working wrestling which likely won't matter here unless we're all underestimating the size difference. We'll get a better feel for that at face offs hopefully

Shocked Cannon used to fight at HW, he isn't a big LHW. Seems to be plenty strong though still. I also hit Jan dec as a hedge to my Cannon action as I see that as his only path really. Cannon seems to have a sturdy chin and survived for three rounds with Glover on the mat.

 

[Ukram]

 

[Rapidryan88]

Like when bookies offer stuff like this

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Here is my breakdown for Bofando/Laprise:

35 year old Bofando was pretty much retired from fighting before being called up for a European card to face off against Charlie Ward. There isn't a record of Bofando making it out of the first round in any of his MMA fights. He's been able to put everyone out in the 1st round. Bofando hasn't faced anyone reasonably skilled in his MMA career, however, so it's difficult to judge what his skill level is. To be fighting for 7 years and not being able to find a reasonably skilled opponent is a bit fishy, however. Agreeing to a modified rules "MMA" fight with no grappling or clinching might be an indication as to why Bofando's record looks so protected.

I appreciate all your breakdowns, but his record clearly indicates his first 3 fights all went past the first round. I only saw one of those 3, but in that fight he both grappled extensively (spend most of the first round on his back) and won by clinching and throwing a knee to the body and a knee to the face for a ko in the second round.

Where did you read about the modified rules and which fights are we talking about?