UFC Fox 24 - DJ vs Reis - Kansas City

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Oblivian said:
For those thinking Elliott will be a moderate fav, you will not feel comfortable during that fight if you play that line. Elliott is a much better matchup for Smolka than a guy like Borg. I loved Borg's line in that fight, but Elliott plays a much looser game. The one thing Elliott has going for him here is that he's great at grabbing guillotines, but if this hits the cards, I think it will be a close decision.
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Elliott will out scramble Smolka who is soooo loose on the mat. Paddy Holohan was all over him on the mat until he gassed. Smolka also has a long neck any transition his neck is in jeporday. Bound to be some hairy moments tho Elliott is just one of them fighters. If your heart can take it i think hes a solid bet.
 
EzFlyer said:
productive debate going on, i see.

anyone arguing either side as a sure thing is fooling himself. personally, i think the O2.5 is superior to either side at present. definitely superior to rose ML, imho, as it's priced similarly (or was when I hit it)

can we keep it under control, tho, please? it's a betting forum & it's a place to help each other make some $ discussing the fights / fight odds
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This...... and personally I think the fight is too close to call. Will be on the overs for sure
 
Tim Elliott -- guy mentally tough enough to say 'fuck it, YOLO' in the biggest fight of his life vs DJ and give DJ the toughest battle of his reign

Lous Smolka -- guy who loses to Ray Borg and when walking to the locker room after screams ' two losses in a row I fucking suck now what the fuck' while crying

Just saying
 
Ketlen Vieira
-25 years old, 7-0 record/2 kos, 3 subs, 2 decisions all low end girls some with 0-2 records
-Judo black belt
-Brazilian wrestling champ
-bronze medal in wrestling nationals, bronze in college wrestling Olympics

Her last ufc debut fight:


27 minute HL reel (looks like 2-3 recent fights 2015/16)


Looks pretty average in the striking department, likes to land heavier striking when her opponents open up but she does commit to them at times. Likes to clinch and look for hip throws or catch leg kicks or even knees to get her opponents down, looked average on top if not just holding opponents down. Has fought higher weight classes before (145) and is quite a big framed female fighter especially at 135 div.
 
To add smolka was drinking after moreno loss. Hes under a lot of pressure heading into this fight.
 
I'll actually be curious to see what Not Elliott by Decision if Elliott is heavily favored. I'm thinking a lot of people will expect him to win a decision since Borg didn't finish. It may end up being a crazy line like Not Gillespie Dec was last event. If it's a decision, I'd be very surprised if Elliott wins better than 29-28.
 
I'd play Moicano for sure if he gets up above +225.
 
Really liking the o3.5 line for DJ/Reis as long as it stays below -200ish. Reis chin has held up fine at flyweight and I doubt he gets tapped early with his BJJ. Cardio also shouldn't be a problem for either guy
 
I was gunna bet Evans smith as she's impressed me so far

But she's pushing this Vegan stuff a bit hard now, which is to be expected as that's what Vegans typically do

And I ain't bettin a Vegan
Quote me on that

Fuck it might bet the over
 
Antagonist88 said:
Really liking the o3.5 line for DJ/Reis as long as it stays below -200ish. Reis chin has held up fine at flyweight and I doubt he gets tapped early with his BJJ. Cardio also shouldn't be a problem for either guy
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Can't see anything beyond a decision for this fight
Sorry for stating the obvious but more just backing O 3.5 should be money
 
Sham5916910 said:
I'm actually pissed off cos it crosses with the boxing now!
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i'm 2 hours ahead of UK atm normal start time for me...meh

Sham5916910 said:
Reis?! I guess it's worth a shot at the odds but just don't see it. Reis never won by KO either.
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it's 20/1 on betvictor right now, I'll take that if i can get it when a book that hasn't banned me releases em. I think MM is a bit overrated at this point in his career, I remember many former champions saying each defence get's tougher mentally and physically, mouse been hurt a few times before, and ppl can gameplan for his style better than a couple years ago. long shot for sure but I think it could be worth it. reis sub is like 15/1 or something there too.
 
The weight cut hurt me, I'll do it right this time, this is close to my hometown, first time I've fought anyone taller than me, but I train with tall guys (Krause), do or die for both of us, weight cut was bad, stomach was hurting, alot of pain, I want the rematch, I just want exciting fights, I like the guillotine, DJ outsmarted me, he's a vet, I want scrambles, I need to slow it down, keep it standing, put him against the cage, work him against the cage, easy takedowns, my coaches told me to stay at 125, I don't think the weight cut will be an issue this time, when I first got fired, I was spending time with my baby, I thought I was done fighting, but then started having fun again, enjoying myself, I don't take it too serious, I don't mind being poor, being a stay at home dad, the only important thing to me is my kid, now I feel like striking is my best tool, I use my wrestling defensively now, I'm still learning, people will be cheering for me, friends and family, will be an early first round finish

 
Rose - I grew up being abused, now I have family, I'm so strong now because I rock climb, you'll see the best version you've ever seen, I will dominate every position, I can inflict more damage

Waterson - I know this is where I belong, we get better each day, I started karate at 10, my husband is my boxing coach, Jackson's MMA is the Harvard of MMA, we go hard, great jab, always going for submissions, I'm better, more sharp, my wrestling will dictate this fight, I knew we would cross paths

 
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