Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by PuertoRican, Jun 1, 2018.
Agreed. Moraes is legit. I loaded up and collected.
I believe that at -240 vs +240, Nathaniel Wood was the sharper side.
Eduardo has one good win in his entire career, and it was from > 4 years ago when he had the power to KO Wineland w/ just a few punches. People act surprised that he was dumb, but he was dumb his entire (not great) career, and now at 37 he doesn't have the physical gifts to overcome his lack of intelligence.
He hurt Wood early, but he was never that close to finishing and bc his chin is also worse he was afraid of getting countered. And Wood's shots likely contributed to him gassing.
He had a small chance of finishing early, and he prob would have been a good bet at like +500. But there was no way he is winning 30%+ of the time against the younger guy with much better power/chin/cardio
Rewatched the Gillespie finish, it looks like the Just Bleed guy has grown up. Pink shirt, ear buds and furiously shaking his cup of water
So the fight is super close, yet Moraes has nothing for Rivera in a rematch? You aren't even making sense.
The interesting thing is that earlier you said Moraes just has MMA fundamentals and that's it. I actually view it opposite. Rivera is really pretty basic, but very effective. Moraes is far more diverse and tricky to figure out.
jeez. I totally missed this card... thought it was tonight...newb mistakes.
Agree. Moraes is very diverse. Meanwhile you will see a right to the body followed by a left to the head combo from Rivera several times a round. Moraes on the other hand is always changing it up.
Hmm. Eduardo was winning every second of that fight before inexplicably shooting on Wood. If you want to say it was inevitable that he'd do something dumb that's fine. I'm not laying -240 on a guy with the feeling that "Hey, he's gonna look bad for half the fight but the other guy will eventually do something stupid and give it away." I mean, it worked so congrats. And I'm not saying that fight IQ shouldn't be a consideration but personally I just can't lay that kind of juice in a situation like that.
Moraes second fight was vs Dodson. Dodson already fought Lineker. Wasn't a staring match. Lineker stalked the whole time and Dodson countered. Super close dec to Lineker, could have gone either way. Wasn't an all time great fight, but it wasn't boring at all and has some really good moments.
I also think it's a bit early to totally write off Dom. Maybe too many injuries and you're right in that he'll never get back to what he was. I'm not totally convinced of that yet though.
I agree with lifeisgood, and I had money on Eduardo. The fight went about as well as it could for him, yet he still didn't come all that close to winning. At the first inkling of the tide turning in the striking he had a mental collapse that assured his demise. If the fight had gone differently and Eduardo had taken a hard jab early, it would have been a shutout and Wood would have looked all of -500.
In a rematch at -240 I would bet Wood to win at least 2u.
IDK. He was piecing Wood up for the most part. Wood really didn't "turn the tide" in the striking, he just made it look a bit closer to even instead of getting his ass kicked. Eduardo just was plain lazy with both the shot and with how he reacted to it getting stuffed, which led to him getting stuck in a horrible spot. I guess it's possible that at his age Eduardo is just that averse to getting hit that one decent jab has him panic wrestling with sloppy TD attempts from distance. I think it's just as likely it was just him being a flake.
I'd favor Wood in a rematch too, just based on the fact that it looked like Eduardo was slowing a bit (not gassed, but his output started to wane and his strikes weren't quite as crisp). Plus, yeah, maybe he's just a straight up flake. That said, I'd probably just pass on -240 for Wood. He looked overmatched for 7 minutes or whatever, then was gifted a choke off a sloppy shot. That's not the kind of guy I want to lay decent juice on. -175ish? Yeah maybe. Higher than that, I'd pass. I'd probably consider betting Eduardo again around +300 or so.
Was already big on Magic but tailed a bunch of the rest of your action. Thanks boss!
No problem, because of the line movements and Bergers long face at weigh-ins I decided to change my mind about Saunders chances and took some ml and ko/tko. +2u!
No problem man, happy to contribute to your wins. That Moraes KO really made a decent event much more enjoyable
Greetings from speculation vacation! I had two +12.5u weekends in row earlier this year with some strong plays, then lost it all in following three events by coming up with many compelling speculative arguments, which all proved to be bad. Now I’m back with +6u in last three events (risking 21u) with strict 0.5u limit on any kind of speculation related plays.
This match-up went way over my head, so I stayed away from it. Nice to see, that many got it right.
I had to bow out earlier, so I just finished watching the last few fights of the main event. Thank god Moraes came through, saved the event for me, pretty elated right now. I was kinda chasing too many dog line this ufc.
Hit Moraes nsc, ml, and sprinkled some on his ko @+570. There are sometimes some very high 'does not start round 2' props for fights that are worth sniffing out imo. Moraes/Rivera does not start round 2 which was round +600. Didn't bet that, but I did bet the same prop small when Moraes fought Sterling.
+$271 on 5dimes and +$58 on sbg. Nothing amazing, but at least it's a winning weekend for me.
He was not winning "every second"
It was even outside of Eduardo stunning Wood and letting him recover. Come on man don't exaggerate to make your side seem better. If he was winning every second he wouldn't have gone for a desperate takedown.
Meh, hyperbole, fine. How about "Eduardo easily won round 1 and was getting the better of the striking for the first 90 seconds of rd 2 until he stupidly shot for a TD". That's more accurate, because I agree, "winning every second" was a bit much.
Before you said him going for that takedown was because he was "dumb, and always does dumb things" though. So was it because he has horrible fight IQ, or because he was "desperate"? He ate one decent jab. If that alone made him shoot that sloppy TD attempt, he needs to retire. His chin is GONE. He didn't really get hit much aside from that one good shot. Maybe Eduardo really is just that done. IDK, it's possible though.
IMO it was a number of things. Fight IQ, limited cardio, not trusting his chin to absorb a counter from Wood, being worn down from the shots Wood had landed thus far. It amounts to a fighter who was never that good is now either done or close to it.
I agree that Eduardo was winning from a points perspective. And even though he hurt Wood more in round 1, maybe Wood was actually dealing more cumulative damage.
Wood had landed 20 head strikes up to that point. Even though none of them seemed that significant he does have power. Maybe they were wearing more on the old man than it seemed from afar.
Yeah, no. Laying -300 (Since nobody's going to give you -240 for our boy Wood) on a UFC debutant who was clearly the less effective participant in his own area of specialty is silly. Best bet was fight u2.5 @ -250, second best was Eduardo ML, dog or pass.
I think the modern metagame's horrible for Dom, especially at BW. He can't really hang with the strikers at the top of the division, and I don't think his wrestling game is quite as effective as it used to be. Dillashaw won their fight IMO, and took it to him once he figured out he just needed to spam naked legkicks since Cruz's striking style leaves him open.
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