UFC FN 131 PBP/Discussion

[Stunna77]

Honestly don’t understand the ed/wood discussion here. Eduardo shouldn’t of been +250 with woods shoddy defense, that was clear as day. Betting a -300 fav based on their opponents fight iq is not going to end well long term.

That said, I made 11.5u on the night. Harris, Belal, gg, and moraes came up big for me.

 

[piglord]

c'mon man wood -240 was a terrible bet. it's okay to admit you made a bad bet and got away with it, we all do it.

 

[mkess101]

Yeah, no. Laying -300 (Since nobody's going to give you -240 for our boy Wood) on a UFC debutant who was clearly the less effective participant in his own area of specialty is silly. Best bet was fight u2.5 @ -250, second best was Eduardo ML, dog or pass.


I think the modern metagame's horrible for Dom, especially at BW. He can't really hang with the strikers at the top of the division, and I don't think his wrestling game is quite as effective as it used to be. Dillashaw won their fight IMO, and took it to him once he figured out he just needed to spam naked legkicks since Cruz's striking style leaves him open.

We'll see in regards to Dom. I did have him beating TJ, albeit razor close and TJ could have gotten the nod. Cody pieced Dom up though, and you may be right given how one-sided that fight was. Dom's lack of power hurts him a lot too. He used to be playing chess while everyone else played checkers at BW. But now because he's declined, others have improved, or a combination of both his lack of power might be something he can no longer overcome vs the other top guys. I want to see one more fight against a top 5 guy to see his days as a true contender are over or not.

 

[Gugabe]

c'mon man wood -240 was a terrible bet. it's okay to admit you made a bad bet and got away with it, we all do it.

Prettymuch. Sometimes a juiced favorite is a bad bet like Wood, sometimes a big dog's a bad bet like Tibau. It happens.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Just saying that I bet Wood not expecting him to win from a points perspective or not caring if he did. I just expected him to outlast the old man and he did.

Everybody is chalking the fight up to bad luck...maybe there is some reason that you aren't considering that doomed Eduardo. Round 1 went about as well as possible and he still wasn't close to finishing, and he got finished very easily at the first opening in round 2.

Yeah, no. Laying -300 (Since nobody's going to give you -240 for our boy Wood) on a UFC debutant who was clearly the less effective participant in his own area of specialty is silly. Best bet was fight u2.5 @ -250, second best was Eduardo ML, dog or pass.


I think the modern metagame's horrible for Dom, especially at BW. He can't really hang with the strikers at the top of the division, and I don't think his wrestling game is quite as effective as it used to be. Dillashaw won their fight IMO, and took it to him once he figured out he just needed to spam naked legkicks since Cruz's striking style leaves him open.

Wood closed -242/+210 on Pinny.

And Wood was clearly more effective seeing that he easily finished Eduardo at the first chance while Eduardo had a small opening and did jackshit with it.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

c'mon man wood -240 was a terrible bet. it's okay to admit you made a bad bet and got away with it, we all do it.

I always admit when I get a lucky win. In this case the bet played out more or less how I expected.

Wasn't an amazing bet or anything, but IMO there was a bit of value on Wood. Capped it around -350 which feels about right after watching the fight.

It's OK for you guys to admit you were missing a key detail or two and your underdog wasn't as likely it felt

 

[Oblivian]

I always admit when I get a lucky win. In this case the bet played out more or less how I expected.

Wasn't an amazing bet or anything, but IMO there was a bit of value on Wood. Capped it around -350 which feels about right after watching the fight.

It's OK for you guys to admit you were missing a key detail or two and your underdog wasn't as likely it felt

I think Eduardo has pretty poor cardio, fight IQ, and overrates his ground game. But I will say this - if Wood looked like he was -350, Belal looked like he was -10000.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I think Eduardo has pretty poor cardio, fight IQ, and overrates his ground game. But I will say this - if Wood looked like he was -350, Belal looked like he was -10000.

Belal probably wasn't going to ever lose.

But part of the variance is that you don't know what fighter is going to show up.

Like there was some scenario where Wood is massively improved and Eduardo is done and he gets run through in a minute. Eduardo looked about as good as he could have for a 37 y/o coming off a foot injury, fought as well as he could have in round 1, and he still wasn't that close to finishing.

Sure there's some scenario where he has a bit more power, a bit more killer instincts, a bit less chin for Wood and he finishes...but really you can't expect that much more from the old man than what we got, and it still wasn't good enough.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Belal probably wasn't going to ever lose.

But part of the variance is that you don't know what fighter is going to show up.

Like there was some scenario where Wood is massively improved and Eduardo is done and he gets run through in a minute. Eduardo looked about as good as he could have for a 37 y/o coming off a foot injury, fought as well as he could have in round 1, and he still wasn't that close to finishing.

Sure there's some scenario where he has a bit more power, a bit more killer instincts, a bit less chin for Wood and he finishes...but really you can't expect that much more from the old man than what we got, and it still wasn't good enough.

I don't know how you keep making yourself look dumber with each post. I thought you maxed out a couple of posts ago.

 

[mkess101]

I think all of us are just gonna have to agree to disagree with @lifeisgood12345 and move on. Sometimes people just see the same thing different ways and there comes a point where nothing anyone says is going to change anyone's mind. Better to look forward to all the fights we have coming up.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I don't know how you keep making yourself look dumber with each post. I thought you maxed out a couple of posts ago.

I am making level headed and rational points, and my logic has consistently stacked $$$ for me over a large sample...maybe I'm wrong about the correct price, but if you think I sound dumb making perfectly reasonable points you are probably the idiot.

I thought this was an interesting discussion but mkess is the only one of y'all who can engage with reason. The rest of you are being super egotistical + dismissive about your losing bet. Maybe if you were more open to perspectives that differed from your own, you wouldn't be stuck working jobs to pay your bills.

 

[NinjaCat456]

Just saying that I bet Wood not expecting him to win from a points perspective or not caring if he did. I just expected him to outlast the old man and he did.

Everybody is chalking the fight up to bad luck...maybe there is some reason that you aren't considering that doomed Eduardo. Round 1 went about as well as possible and he still wasn't close to finishing, and he got finished very easily at the first opening in round 2.

Did you even watch the fight? Eduardo was chewing him up on the feet in the first round and had Wood in all sorts of trouble. All he had to do was keep up the pressure when he had him hurt and the fight would have been stopped. Instead he did what Jason Knight did the other week and let his opponent off the hook when he had the fight won.

If we'd had live betting for that fight Wood probably would have been around +200 after round 1. -240 pre-fight was a -EV bet however you look at it.