UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

[ExitLUPin]

Jailton ITD -200
Holmes ITD +130

LOVE these individually and as a parlay

 

[benebox]

Jailton ITD -200
Holmes ITD +130

LOVE these individually and as a parlay

I wouldn't be betting Holmes ITD, especially in any parlays... she has 2 finishes in her last 12 fights (or 1 in 9), both against terrible strikers in Ronda was Correira.

 

[ExitLUPin]

I wouldn't be betting Holmes ITD, especially in any parlays... she has 2 finishes in her last 12 fights (or 1 in 9), both against terrible strikers in Ronda was Correira.

This is Joseph Holmes... Against Alen Amedovski.

 

[The Disasters]

If i had to pass on every fight that had the risk you named above, i would never bet. Because those things can happen in any fight. you guys are fixated too much on the risk and focusing on odds, but the key here is to not over expose your whole bank row on one fight. How you expose your weekly budget is the key. i can lose all my wages, but 9 of 10 times my leans that are at 90% hit every time. i would say if anything my biggest gift in betting is spotting mismatches. im not at all worried about losing. we’re gambling here, its what i sign up for. but playing it safe each week doesn’t do me anything because im missing out on fights when i can be earning a buck off their hard work.

I added the emphasis. You're right, we are focused on those things, and you're also right that it results quite a few passes(speaking for myself, and probably for
FimbulFightPicks).

You're gambling for entertainment, with a weekly budget, so as long as you're having fun, great. You can afford to go bust one week because you'll have a new bankroll the next week. I don't judge, I know many people like that. I give that advice because if you want to avoid having to deposit again, you'll have to pay attention to the risk and the odds, and you'll have to bet fewer fights/games/events. I gamble for a living. If I lose everything I can't pay the mortgage, my kid eats mac n' cheese, and I don't have a new bankroll next week.

I just wish every gambler would keep track of their bets and lose less over time because you'll have a lot more fun playing with house money. (I'll stop preaching now!)

 

[Stat_Collector]

I added the emphasis. You're right, we are focused on those things, and you're also right that it results quite a few passes(speaking for myself, and probably for
FimbulFightPicks).

You're gambling for entertainment, with a weekly budget, so as long as you're having fun, great. You can afford to go bust one week because you'll have a new bankroll the next week. I don't judge, I know many people like that. I give that advice because if you want to avoid having to deposit again, you'll have to pay attention to the risk and the odds, and you'll have to bet fewer fights/games/events. I gamble for a living. If I lose everything I can't pay the mortgage, my kid eats mac n' cheese, and I don't have a new bankroll next week.

I just wish every gambler would keep track of their bets and lose less over time because you'll have a lot more fun playing with house money. (I'll stop preaching now!)

i pass on 75% of fights. you’re preaching to the choir. My weekly budget and my bankroll are separate. I never said you should bet everything. i think you shoot yourself in the foot when you avoid fighters like holly and only go for underdogs. Holly is in a whole other level, so is chidi and Jailton. they are that much better and deserve a full weekly spread. i have no regrets if i lose, there are very little red flags here. you have to make a convincing case why you think Porter, Viana and Dusko can win, and i’m just not satisfied with the points you brought up.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

This is Joseph Holmes... Against Alen Amedovski.

Ahh he thought Holmes was holly holm lol. I was wondering what he was talking about

 

[matthew55]

I wonder if Almedia will be able to get up if Porter gets on top of him, could be a ptv...Since this thread doesn't figure to be all that jam packed, anyone with sportsline know the Longshot golfer that Sal is supposed to be on?

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

i pass on 75% of fights. you’re preaching to the choir. My weekly budget and my bankroll are separate. I never said you should bet everything. i think you shoot yourself in the foot when you avoid fighters like holly and only go for underdogs. Holly is in a whole other level, so is chidi and Jailton. they are that much better and deserve a full weekly spread. i have no regrets if i lose, there are very little red flags here. you have to make a convincing case why you think Porter, Viana and Dusko can win, and i’m just not satisfied with the points you brought up.

You mentioned Viana but you may have meant Ketlen Vieira probably?

At least that seems to fit better with your post here.

For me personally I plan on taking Holly live, possibly very early at the same odds at pre bet if she looks fine, and/or take her dec line live. Live betting is a gold mine and helpful for when you´re unsure about pre bets.

What I think is smart is if we look at a -250, then compare that -250 to other -250 bets in the past. This often to me makes it extremely clear. Like last week I made the worst bet of all time ever by betting Maximov, and now in hidnsight when I compare Maximovs line to a fighter like Magomed Ankalev or someone else who also was a massive favorite, then it makes it clear that yeah thats not a good bet.

-250 holly to me feels about right given the concerns, without the concerns she´d likely be a -400 to me.

Imo guys like Jailton when we reach that area props is your friend. Like find the sub, ko, itd, or dec props. I remember vs Roxy 3 times we had Araujo, Santos and Casey, and all three were like -400 -300 but their dec lines were -125ish thats where the value was. That or the over/gtd.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Holm -5-5 is -110

if she ends up looking like nearly a -300, she will win by 5.5 points

thanks to whoever is betting Uros medic. I’ll take morales at -137

 

[benebox]

This is Joseph Holmes... Against Alen Amedovski.

Oh right, my bad. I Haven't slept much these last few days.

 

[Thesnake101]

Will take my countryman Omar to finish Uros with strikes after weathering the storm early. Also hit his ML.

 

[Stat_Collector]

You mentioned Viana but you may have meant Ketlen Vieira probably?

At least that seems to fit better with your post here.

For me personally I plan on taking Holly live, possibly very early at the same odds at pre bet if she looks fine, and/or take her dec line live. Live betting is a gold mine and helpful for when you´re unsure about pre bets.

What I think is smart is if we look at a -250, then compare that -250 to other -250 bets in the past. This often to me makes it extremely clear. Like last week I made the worst bet of all time ever by betting Maximov, and now in hidnsight when I compare Maximovs line to a fighter like Magomed Ankalev or someone else who also was a massive favorite, then it makes it clear that yeah thats not a good bet.

-250 holly to me feels about right given the concerns, without the concerns she´d likely be a -400 to me.

Imo guys like Jailton when we reach that area props is your friend. Like find the sub, ko, itd, or dec props. I remember vs Roxy 3 times we had Araujo, Santos and Casey, and all three were like -400 -300 but their dec lines were -125ish thats where the value was. That or the over/gtd.

its all about styles and skillset. Nick wasn’t worth the juice because he is a lay and pray fighter who beat non grapplers. he also meets a red flag of mine, fighters with less than 10 fights who are 1 dimensional decision machines. Holly is not that. She has combat sports experience outside of mma. good fight iq, no sign of eroding as she performed good in her last fight and is a solid grappler now. being well rounded and 40 years old, she still has good work. Watching viera get outworked by lesser skilled opponents like Yana and Irene, i cant see how she manages to bridge that gap and suddenly beat holly who is probably one of the safest fighters around, she thinks about everything she does like a master chess player.

so you know that already i think her price is fair. im not going to live bet this cause i dont think holly is going to lose a round, i actually think Holly can stop her late like Jan did last week. im going for that round 3-5 ko prop again. That can be 1000+ i think that’s the move. I have Jailton itd -350 parlayed thats all so far.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Will take my countryman Omar to finish Uros with strikes after weathering the storm early. Also hit his ML.

i think Uros is going to upset Omar. Omar is pushing 37, looked terrible in his last outing.

Uros fought a more dangerous fighter in Turner. And turner only subbed him after knocking him down. He showed good scrambles to his feet, i think he can avoid Omars ground game. Striking wise, I think Uros has a good size and reach advantage here and his punches are more explosive. I cant see Omar having the explosiveness or athleticism to overwhelm Uros , I see Uros having the same threats and skill set of Giga and having a similar performance. I'm going for the more youthful explosive striker here to get a ko early or decision.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I wonder if Almedia will be able to get up if Porter gets on top of him, could be a ptv...Since this thread doesn't figure to be all that jam packed, anyone with sportsline know the Longshot golfer that Sal is supposed to be on?

Porter is going to get submitted if he "gets on top of Almeida". Almeida is not the fighter to play around with on the ground.

The reason the odds are so long is because one fighter is objectively better everywhere than the other. Betting on Porter is akin to lighting your money on fire.

 

[Thesnake101]

i think Uros is going to upset Omar. Omar is pushing 37, looked terrible in his last outing.

Uros fought a more dangerous fighter in Turner. And turner only subbed him after knocking him down. He showed good scrambles to his feet, i think he can avoid Omars ground game. Striking wise, I think Uros has a good size and reach advantage here and his punches are more explosive. I cant see Omar having the explosiveness or athleticism to overwhelm Uros , I see Uros having the same threats and skill set of Giga and having a similar performance. I'm going for the more youthful explosive striker here to get a ko early or decision.

Uros has only beaten garbage bin competition though, and I don't trust his gas tank. I think if Omar's chin holds up, he'll break Uros down with leg kicks before landing a power punch.

I think Medic is good for one big explosion, but like most AFC fighters, he's actually quite poor in terms of overall skills.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Uros has only beaten garbage bin competition though, and I don't trust his gas tank. I think if Omar's chin holds up, he'll break Uros down with leg kicks before landing a power punch.

I think Medic is good for one big explosion, but like most AFC fighters, he's actually quite poor in terms of overall skills.

its possible. small sprinkle on medic. omar is clean.

 

[sal rivera]

Early thoughts and bets:

Took 1.7 units on Chidi at -170 a few days ago - Chidi by KO, but hate getting burned by props so taking what i thought was a good moneyline bet on a line I saw a few days ago, i see he is now -200

1.18 units on Michel Perreira at -118 - Perriera will probably toy with ponz all fight, few sketchy spots where perreira will rock ponz, but i'll say perreira wins a decision.

Jailton Almeida to win in round 1. 1 unit at +100. I like this bet because we are getting a -800 favorite here and while they aren't slippery I could see almeida getting this win quick, and this bet hedges in case he gets a TKO. 1st round win by sub was only +125, so i feel we cover more bases here by taking just to win in round 1 at +100

Uros Medic - 1 unit at +140 - i think its an even fight, so give me dog money. Morales is too muscley, morales gasses and medic fucks him up.

Hooper/colares Under 2.5 rounds - 1 unit at +135 - I expected the under in this fight to be the favorite, so I auto bet this under at dog money. This might end up being a crazy scrambley type of fight where anyone can win at any moment.

Sam Hughes - 1 unit at +150 - 50/50 low level women's fight, give me the dog.

Erik Anders 1 unit at +175. - another fight that i think is closer to 50/50 so I will gladly take +175. Anders is pretty good and Park is nothing special.

Also eyeing Vince Morales around +185 right now, want to see what happens with that line

 

[ExitLUPin]

Uros has only beaten garbage bin competition though, and I don't trust his gas tank. I think if Omar's chin holds up, he'll break Uros down with leg kicks before landing a power punch.

I think Medic is good for one big explosion, but like most AFC fighters, he's actually quite poor in terms of overall skills.

You're not worried about Omar's last fight? I thought he'd win against Pearce but he had ZERO ability or idea how to fight off the back foot. He looked clueless and got walked down and finished. Medic is gonna be the one pressuring and on the front foot most often I'd imagine.

 

[Thesnake101]

You're not worried about Omar's last fight? I thought he'd win against Pearce but he had ZERO ability or idea how to fight off the back foot. He looked clueless and got walked down and finished. Medic is gonna be the one pressuring and on the front foot most often I'd imagine.

I think Pearce has been coming to his own, and like I said before, I don't think Medic is as good as either of the guys who beat Omar.

I'm not putting that much on Morales however, I do know he has a tendency to just throw hard which leaves him open and hittable, and Uros is dangerous. My other play for the fight will be FDGTD depending on the value. Think either Uros gets him out of there, or quits.

 

[svmr_db]

Not often you hear about fighters betting on themselves, wasn't Justin Jaynes the last guy who claimed he did that? And subsequently lost his fight vs Charles Rosa. Who knows if he actually did it or was just trying to get some publicity though, didn't he claim he was going to put his whole fight purse on himself to win?