UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

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Damn, I was hoping to get some use out of that Jailton Almeida line but if it's at -620 before it even shows up on Bet365 for me then that idea is dead.
 
Hopefully the Holm / Vieira goes the distance line comes out under -250, really doubt there's a finish here if nobody gets injured.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Why?
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Should be a decent fav imo like -170. He has great pressure and boxing and will be on Michels ass all night wearing on him. Michels past couple opponents haven’t pushed him enough to gas him out. Ponz while I think he’s on the decline still had a solid showing and a close fight vs Neal. I don’t think Michel has the power to sleep him either, you need to gain Ponzs respect and if not he’ll smother you and mess you up. That shot Li hit him with would put down a horse so I don’t put too much stock in that. If Ponz does take the L it will solidify him no longer being a top 15 guy but I still see him there. Even if Pereira has been fighting smarter and has a good streak going, he’s a wild man at heart and if that part shows up Ponz will sleep him. I also like the Over 2.5 and maybe fight goes the distance.

Gonna rewatch the Gunnar fight later since he has a similar stance as Michel. I know eyepokes fucked him up but still a parallel between the 2.
 
Colares
Brendan
Holly Viera over
Jailton by sub

liking these
 
Bummer that the oddsmakers have figured out that Hooper isn't that good yet and that Anders isn't good period.

Only line that jumps out at first glance is Martinez as a -180 fave. Forget my dislike of Factory X, Morales is rapidly improving and Martinez isn't.
 
jnes said:
Should be a decent fav imo like -170. He has great pressure and boxing and will be on Michels ass all night wearing on him. Michels past couple opponents haven’t pushed him enough to gas him out. Ponz while I think he’s on the decline still had a solid showing and a close fight vs Neal. I don’t think Michel has the power to sleep him either, you need to gain Ponzs respect and if not he’ll smother you and mess you up. That shot Li hit him with would put down a horse so I don’t put too much stock in that. If Ponz does take the L it will solidify him no longer being a top 15 guy but I still see him there. Even if Pereira has been fighting smarter and has a good streak going, he’s a wild man at heart and if that part shows up Ponz will sleep him. I also like the Over 2.5 and maybe fight goes the distance.

Gonna rewatch the Gunnar fight later since he has a similar stance as Michel. I know eyepokes fucked him up but still a parallel between the 2.
Click to expand...


It's usually Pereira who tires himself out rather than anything his opponent does imo.
 
jnes said:
Should be a decent fav imo like -170. He has great pressure and boxing and will be on Michels ass all night wearing on him. Michels past couple opponents haven’t pushed him enough to gas him out. Ponz while I think he’s on the decline still had a solid showing and a close fight vs Neal. I don’t think Michel has the power to sleep him either, you need to gain Ponzs respect and if not he’ll smother you and mess you up. That shot Li hit him with would put down a horse so I don’t put too much stock in that. If Ponz does take the L it will solidify him no longer being a top 15 guy but I still see him there. Even if Pereira has been fighting smarter and has a good streak going, he’s a wild man at heart and if that part shows up Ponz will sleep him. I also like the Over 2.5 and maybe fight goes the distance.

Gonna rewatch the Gunnar fight later since he has a similar stance as Michel. I know eyepokes fucked him up but still a parallel between the 2.
Click to expand...

Ponz is not the same Ponz, and neither is Geoff Neal after the near-death he had. Cardio, chin or the power.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Wait for his sub line
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I was thinking just general finish, personally. More vague and the line will reflect it, but with Almeida's game being dragging his opponents down and working from the top, I don't have the confidence in him choosing one method over the other. Sometimes he goes for the neck, sometimes he just batters them with his fists. I'd rather just sit back and enjoy the mauling than fret over the exact method, but that's just me.

Like the others have said, leaning towards Colares as well, Hooper just doesn't have the striking or defense to protect himself on the feet, and he lacks the physicality to consistently ground opponents and get them into his world. Between the damage he's already taken at 22 years old from being hittable and the difficulty I expect him to have continuing to make weight as he gets older, I don't expect him to stick around in the UFC for long. Hooper needed that Hail Mary 3rd round sub just to get by Peter Barrett. Colares has the BJJ and judo to survive him, he's no world beater as a striker but he doesn't need to be here.

Anyone have any major reservations about Njokuani over Todorovic? Todorovic went with a wrestle heavy approach against Pitolo and I would expect him to try the same thing here, but I think Njokuani will be able to fend him off with movement and his clinch work. I thought Njokuani showed good urgency in not accepting bottom position in his DWCS fight against Sousa too, either reversing or wall walking up. Todorovic's striking defense of always leaning back and relying on head movement like he did (for a loss) against Rodrigues seems like a bad idea against a fighter with Njokuani's length and striking. I'm thinking that chin gets tagged.
 
Another card stacked with low level fighters and flakes and I’m not really feeling it so far for betting

but I was the same way last week and ended up profiting 34 units lol so I’ll take that again

small plays on
pereira -118
Elise -120

This one’s up in the air for me. I dunno if I’ll even keep those plays

chidi is nearing -200 which is pretty wild

park -225 is wide

I kind of liked poly around +135 but never played her and now she’s at about evens

Betting Almeida at -800 is crazy. He’s moving up to heavyweight.

Ponzi is washed. Waiting for him to get knocked out now

medic got exposed by jalin turner. I dunno if it was turner being that good or medic just not being the guy I thought he was.

Would’ve played colares as a dog but really don’t want to pay -160 for him.

meh
 
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Poking Hooper and Dusko as dogs. Colares spent a full round with Pilarte on his back, so Hooper shenanigans might occur, and Dusko's top control might make life miserable for Chidi.
 
Colares-155
Omar Morales -150
Ricci-135

Are the 3 fighters j will bet unless line goes to above -200

Rest will be over unders
 
Agree with those saying Colares is value at -160. Better stand up, good enough TDD and also a black belt so even if it goes to the ground he should be able to hold his own. Hooper will lose and get cut to Bellator where he belongs.
 
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