UFC FIGHT NIGHT 131

CR0W said:
Slightly off-topic I guess, but hoping someone can assist me.

Basically, bet on MMA/Boxing for well over a decade, always made decent enough profit for the most part but admittedly never really "tracked" my bets, a little here and there years ago but nothing properly tracking my units, total stake, profit etc, it's always just been for fun... anyway...

So the past week I've been tracking my bets for MMA and Boxing, tracked every one of them, stake, profit etc in an Excel file. I know my total stake and profit, but trying to calculate my ROI..... read some articles online on how to figure it out but not 100% I'm doing it right, so can anyone help me calculate my ROI since I've started tracking? Much appreciated if anyone can..... my Wordpress with my picks should be 'live' soon, it has all my picks from the past week on there before each event etc but still work to be done on it.

17 Bets
Total Stake: £11,139
Total Profit: £4,449
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I use http://www.aussportsbetting.com/tools/betting-tracker-excel-worksheet/ as my tracker spreadsheet. Easy to use, fast and great.
 
Some observations/thoughts:

- I've noticed Rivera fading in his last couple of fights, particularly in the Almeida fight. I'm wondering if this will re-surface, hence why I'm leaning Moraes. I also like Moraes' diverse striking. From the few fights I've seen of Rivera's, he has solid boxing and controls the pace of the fight early on, but isn't someone I'm terrified of (i.e. brutal KO power to end it quickly).

- Is post-USADA Tibau even a shell of his former self? The odds really jumped out at me until I realized he's fought once in 3 years.

- Villante is a bum and a half, but I would favour him over Alvey for his power if nothing else.

- I'm happy to sprinkle on Lentz at these odds. Very crafty and slippery, good value bet IMO.
 
HighStakesMMA said:
Some observations/thoughts:

- I've noticed Rivera fading in his last couple of fights, particularly in the Almeida fight. I'm wondering if this will re-surface, hence why I'm leaning Moraes. I also like Moraes' diverse striking. From the few fights I've seen of Rivera's, he has solid boxing and controls the pace of the fight early on, but isn't someone I'm terrified of (i.e. brutal KO power to end it quickly).

- Is post-USADA Tibau even a shell of his former self? The odds really jumped out at me until I realized he's fought once in 3 years.

- Villante is a bum and a half, but I would favour him over Alvey for his power if nothing else.

- I'm happy to sprinkle on Lentz at these odds. Very crafty and slippery, good value bet IMO.
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I agree with all of those plays.
 
MMA fan93 said:
Why is that?

Alvey is really passive in his fights, barely throws anything. Plus who knows how well his power will translate up a weight class.. i think Vilante by decision has value here. Would like to hear your opinions on this..
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I wouldn't go as far as saying Villante is also passive, but he definitely lacks urgency himself and has a poor fight IQ. Villante will be bigger (walks around as high as 250 iirc from an interview). In theory he should win but he's burned me every time I've bet him. I'm probably going to steer clear of this fight or maybe hit the over if the price is right.
 
HighStakesMMA said:
- I'm happy to sprinkle on Lentz at these odds. Very crafty and slippery, good value bet IMO.
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if you like lentz i'd play the sub line, i can't envision him winning rounds but he could snatch a neck.
 
Alvey has some pretty poor striking tendencies if you get in the pocket with him. He hopes to land the initial counter off someone coming in. If you get past that and force him to exchange, he has no head movement and leaves his chin up. He doesn't really block either.
 
HighStakesMMA said:
Some observations/thoughts:

- I've noticed Rivera fading in his last couple of fights, particularly in the Almeida fight. I'm wondering if this will re-surface, hence why I'm leaning Moraes. I also like Moraes' diverse striking. From the few fights I've seen of Rivera's, he has solid boxing and controls the pace of the fight early on, but isn't someone I'm terrified of (i.e. brutal KO power to end it quickly).

- Is post-USADA Tibau even a shell of his former self? The odds really jumped out at me until I realized he's fought once in 3 years.

- Villante is a bum and a half, but I would favour him over Alvey for his power if nothing else.

- I'm happy to sprinkle on Lentz at these odds. Very crafty and slippery, good value bet IMO.
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Tibau didn't look terrible against Islam, and still had his old body. The KO's obviously an issue, but I don't think Desmond Green's gonna go headhunting in there per the rest of his record, and it was quite a hard shot he got caught with.
 
5u on Julio Arce before his line shifts deeper towards -200
 
Seems I will be against the thread on Alvey. Villante gets tagged by everyone he fights, including going tooth and nail with Safarovs wild ass. Alvey is accurate with his counters and Villante will give him plenty of opportunities to land. I def trust Alvey's chin over Villante's too and feel Villante's power is a bit overrated. Dude couldn't get glass chinned cummings out of there and only owns KO wins over dudes who get finished every time they lose. Not to mention he has about 3 min of cardio.
 
Anyone know why money keeps coming in on Jodie? Fade of Jag based on Casey fight or what? Jodie is not really good at anything.
 
Arce might be the biggest lock. I'm shilling him hard
 
Arce didn't really have to worry about leg kicks in his last fight. Teymur will be bringing plenty of those. I didnt think Arce was particularly good with his kicks either. Teymur slowed down after a round but it was short notice and if he comes in with stamina I can see Arce struggling a bit with his kicking game.
 
I feel like Arce has a high ceiling. Tiger Schulmann is a great camp, he has the height + reach advantage and has great boxing. Seriously, go watch his punches. He's good on his feet and on the ground and possess good enough wrestling knowledge to either incorporate takedowns into his game or defend from them.

Again, I just think he has a high ceiling. But honestly maybe fading me is best. Whenever I shill someone like this they usually get cucked.

edit: now I have to up my 5u to 7u to back up my shill
 
Stunna77 said:
Anyone know why money keeps coming in on Jodie? Fade of Jag based on Casey fight or what? Jodie is not really good at anything.
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Source tells me one of the bigger touts MAXBET SEASON'd Jodie.
 
there are a lot of fucking retarded cappers on twitter, i'd stay clear when looking for intel.
 
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