For crying out loud. I'm in my 40's. I trained, fought, and cornered guys for over 6 years when I was younger. My brain can "reach" things just fine.
What you don't seem to grasp is that you don't need to be Chael Sanderson to be an EFFECTIVE wrestler for MMA. I'll repeat because this is important and you should let it sink in: EFFECTIVE.
When I break down fights, I'm already weighing all those factors that you seem to think are aren't taken into account. My analysis of Fluffy was purely for the matchup vs Kopylov. And since we haven't seen Kopylov face someone who can push and grind and be relentless with his wrestling like Fluffy can but we saw Duraev have success with it before he gassed...we had a base to work from. Taking into account maybe some improvements from Roman, but still completely untested vs someone who can do what Fluffy does.
So in the end, what mattered to me was (for the third time now, so you hopefully REALLY get it): can Fluffy be EFFECTIVE vs Roman with his grappling? And the answer was "yes". And he didn't need to gas him out late in the fight as you claimed. He had him down and drowning 6 minutes into it.
Perhaps you would have more success handicapping if you looked at fighting through the lens of what is effective vs just what you think is technically he effectiveness of high pace and pressure has nothing to do with his takedown game. It helps him in the effectiveness of his style, but we have already mentioned that.