UFC 298, Feb 17, California

[DabanggData]

Brendson Ribeiro +125 has 6 inch reach advantage



https://fightodds.io/odds/5355/ufc-298-volkanovski-vs-topuria
https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/107060-ufc-298
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/77237

• Saturday 02.17.2024 at 06:30 PM ET
• U.S. Broadcast:Pay Per View| Prelims:ESPN
• Promotion:Ultimate Fighting Championship
• Ownership:Endeavor
• Venue:Honda Center
• Location:Anaheim, California, United States
• Enclosure:Octagon
• MMA Bouts:12
• Promotion Links:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
• Event Links:
  
  
  
  
  
  

Ilia Topuria has a powerful jiu-jitsu game, he is good at staying safe from ground and pound by controlling posture with his guard and patiently working his way back to the feet. In top position, he has technical passing and the power he throws with translates to ground and pound well. In terms of submissions, triangles both with the arms and legs dominate his record, whether that be a head and arm choke, anaconda, traditional triangle, etc. The only outliers being a couple of guillotines earlier in his career. Topuria is a very bold fighter with his forward pressure, he likes to stand fairly heavy in his stance and stalk his opponents. He is very good at using a sharp jab and right cross with little telegraph to maintain his momentum and draw out shots from his opponents in order to counter with heavier combinations. Watch for him to draw out the shot, slip, and rip to the body to bring the guard of his opponents low and finish his exchange with a high hook or overhand.

 

[jnes]

I'll believe Volk is done when I see it. Line is all out of whack, he lost a short notice fight vs the best fighter in the world. Vicious loss yes, but don't forget before that he fought "his most dangerous challenger yet" in Yair and looked better than ever. Most fighters I'd be scared for after a loss like that, Volk isn't most fighters.

 

[Guld]

I'll believe Volk is done when I see it. Line is all out of whack, he lost a short notice fight vs the best fighter in the world. Vicious loss yes, but don't forget before that he fought "his most dangerous challenger yet" in Yair and looked better than ever. Most fighters I'd be scared for after a loss like that, Volk isn't most fighters.

I'm in agreement. Unless we see otherwise, I don't think there is any strong evidence that Volk is now chinny/old/slow. That last fight was a bit of a silly one-off so we shouldn't take too much from it. I think the odds are out of whack, and I think Volk's the bet to make. I think Volk's leg kicks and and wrestling will give Ilia some fits.

 

[burge13]

My only issue with Volk is how quickly hes coming back after such a KO. We've seen it affect guys chins doing so and yeah age at his weight is a bit of a red flag. Agree that hes not done until we actually see it, until then its speculation...

Pretty good odds on a guy considered by many to be p4p king 12 months ago

 

[Broe.]

Makhachev would smoke Topuria considering the herbert fight. So yeah that last fight doesn't tell me much.

 

[Guld]

Makhachev would smoke Topuria considering the herbert fight. So yeah that last fight doesn't tell me much.

That's how I'm viewing it as well.
I mean, who knows, maybe Volk is over the hill and/or it's Ilia's time. It's definitely possible, but I wouldn't use that Islam rematch as a gauge for that.

 

[Stat_Collector]

My breakdown on Ilia/Volk


Volk/Ilia
on paper and resume, Volk has the better experience and better opponent wins, he's also got more experience in these 5 round battles. Ilia is the more cleaner fundamental striker. Volk fights very wide, and at time can be sloppy with his strikes, all tho those strikes of mixing kicks and punches can be very effective, there has been times in both Islam and Yair fight where Volk got too aggressive and got countered with a right hand and stumbled down. Volk is a really good attribute fighter, in the sense that he's managed to out work guys with horse like stamina and grit. that style of biting down and charging has made him more battle worn.

Ilia Is a better counter puncher, he has slicker head movement, not only defensively sound, but a better high guard, and recently in the Emmers fight he started utilizing shoulder rolling and chaining combinations off the back foot. Ilia's jab is like that of a pro boxer, he also uses it effectively and actively to score points, while Volk uses the lead parry to setup his strikes, while effective, those parry's don't score points. Ilia also has a power straight that compliments his jab.

Some other things to consider. 27 vs 35 is a big difference. The ceiling for improvement is on the side of Ilia. And he's better than any other previous fights, less hittable.

There are some cons about Ilia that I don't like that I think Volk can capitalize on. Ilia style is very boxing heavy, and he has a vulnerable lead leg that he leans on, Volk will likely be smashing that lead leg. Ilia also has a tendency to coast, in round 3 he did it with Emmers, and he began getting tagged in the end of round 3. He also did this in round 5, became complacent, and Emmers started to bite down and land some overhands. Ilia decided to wrestle and hold Emmers down.

Grappling wise, i do see both guys canceling each other out. However, Ilia has a slight submission threat if he rocks Volk and decides to go for a choke, as we saw Volk get nearly choked by Ortega.

Final scoring, I think this will be a potential banger and close fight or a shut out by Ilia. I have Volk potentially winning 2 rounds to 3 going to Ilia due to him being a little too methodical and complacent. A potential split decision even. I like to play Ilia by sub if it's really high or a decision/split dec prop. I think we see Ilia Tuporia hands being raised on Saturday and new champion is crown, advancing to 15-0

 

[Jinx_AA]

Merab is my most confident pick - I think his pace will dominate 37 yr old Henry

Lemos at -125 vs dern seems like tremendous value aswell …. Dern has terrible takedowns and can’t strike with Lemos imo … I figured she’d be a -250 minimum …

 

[Georges Hefner]

Always take the undefeated fighter at pick em odds. honestly not impressed by Volks resume, beat a bunch of old washed fighters. Volk never fought anyone near Topurias level. I can see a dominant decision victory

 

[sonhow]

Always take the undefeated fighter at pick em odds. honestly not impressed by Volks resume, beat a bunch of old washed fighters. Volk never fought anyone near Topurias level. I can see a dominant decision victory

Im probably on Ilya train as well but thats a pretty strange point about resume considering Volk beat Ortega and Yair who are not old and Max who hasnt lost to anyone else at fw for over a decade and fought Islam to tight dec at lw.

The read on Ilya is purely made out of his potential. I fell to Pyfer trap but because Jack was a set up opponent. But am way higher on Ilya overall.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Lemos line is a rat line if I've ever seen one. Dern has hardly any takedown threat, and she was just destroyed by a worse striker in Andrade. Lemos should have no issue finding Dern's chin. I just dont get the line at all and that worries me.

Feels like it's Topuria's time. Volk also with the quick turn around after a TKO. Topuria is a confident fighter, and he doesn't have to be worried at all with the takedown threat. Volk's really gonna have to rely on leg kicks to me, as I think Topuria will score cleaner blows at boxing range. What a great fight...

 

[BigDramaShow26]

Im probably on Ilya train as well but thats a pretty strange point about resume considering Volk beat Ortega and Yair who are not old and Max who hasnt lost to anyone else at fw for over a decade and fought Islam to tight dec at lw.

The read on Ilya is purely made out of his potential. I fell to Pyfer trap but because Jack was a set up opponent. But am way higher on Ilya overall.

Topuria would run through Yair and Ortega the same way Volk did tbh. At least he has beaten a dangerous standup fighter, and a good grappler. He stood in the fire with Emmett and he willingly grappled with Mitchell.

Pyfer's best win was GM3. That hype train was so unwarranted. That was one of the weirder pushes I have ever seen. The guy was on Rogan and everything.

 

[sonhow]

Topuria would run through Yair and Ortega the same way Volk did tbh. At least he has beaten a dangerous standup fighter, and a good grappler. He stood in the fire with Emmett and he willingly grappled with Mitchell.

Pyfer's best win was GM3. That hype train was so unwarranted. That was one of the weirder pushes I have ever seen. The guy was on Rogan and everything.

Yeah and I aknowledged that Pyfer fact in the Jack-Joe thread. Just seemed like they knew what they were doing with matchmaking. Turned out they didnt.

 

[Guld]

As far as discounting Volk's wins, I think it's good to look at it this way: If Ilia fought the same opponents as Volk, how would he have fared?
I think some of them he'd smash just as easily, maybe easier (Ortega, KZ)
I think he'd struggle to find the same success, and might even lose to some (Yair)
And I think he'd get embarrassed by some (Max and Islam. Yes, I realize Islam has 2 wins over Volk, but most of us recognize that first match could easily have been scored for Volk)

Whereas I feel like Volk would have no issue with Emmett or Bryce which are Ilia's two biggest wins.
Again, this might very well be Ilia's time to claim the crown, but if we are basing it off of proven competition then I think Volk is the clear leader for that category.

 

[Guld]

Lemos line is a rat line if I've ever seen one. Dern has hardly any takedown threat, and she was just destroyed by a worse striker in Andrade. Lemos should have no issue finding Dern's chin. I just dont get the line at all and that worries me.

Yeah, it does seem suspiciously close. I agree with your take that Lemos should be able replicate what Andrade did.

 

[Flexstyle]

Please don’t ever compare Pyfer with Topuria. Pyfer is a beta male cuck. A slimy rat. A glass-jawed weasel. A little hard man in groups. I’ve met many of them through my years. A man who grows in numbers but on his own when confronted, scurries away like a rat. He shit his jocks when he couldn’t put Jack away. A mad backwards Cunt, thats what Joe pyfer is. A phoney, a fake, a fucking quivering coward , he isn’t 1/10th of a man that Topuria is

So how much did you lose on Pyfer?

 

[Georges Hefner]

So how much did you lose on Pyfer?

I picked Hermansson bro

 

[StewDogg11]

Please don’t ever compare Pyfer with Topuria. Pyfer is a beta male cuck. A slimy rat. A glass-jawed weasel. A little hard man in groups. I’ve met many of them through my years. A man who grows in numbers but on his own when confronted, scurries away like a rat. He shit his jocks when he couldn’t put Jack away. A mad backwards Cunt, thats what Joe pyfer is. A phoney, a fake, a fucking quivering coward , he isn’t 1/10th of a man that Topuria is

And yet he could still literally kill you with his bare hands. How’s that make you feel?

 

[Georges Hefner]

And yet he could still literally kill you with his bare hands. How’s that make you feel?

No he wouldnt lol. i would slam that fool on his balding head

 

[Spath]

Where are you guys standing on Neal vs Garry? I’m thinking going with Neal. He’s kind of a big underdog but I’m struggling to find a reason for that.

Neal has very good takedown defense and a basic but serviceable ground game, nothing flashy but it works and isn’t really a weak point in his game. His stand up is dangerous, he packs power in his punches and kicks like a mule (ask Mike Perry).

Neal’s nickname is hands (handz?) of steel, but he has a chin of steel, too. He went 3 rounds with Wonderboy and pushed Shavkat to the limit. It seems we will have a stand up war with Garry and Neal.

Garry’s stock is riding higher than ever before, but his win against Magny didn’t look too good to me. Magny looks like he’s fighting in slow motion these days. I have no idea how Magny managed to win his last fight against the canadian dude and I watched the fight. He looked awful to me. I was quite impressed with the W over Rodriguez (who also lost to Magny and scraped by Jingliang Li in a fight many thought was a robbery), so it’s not all hype.

Neal is more proven and battle tested, more experienced, in a great shape according to the pictures I’ve seen and has a chip on his shoulder as Garry has talked a lot of shit. When two strikers go at it I’ll happily side with the guy who has the chin, power and experience advantage. To me this seems like the fight where the veteran will put the newcomer in his place.

I might do a deep dive breakdown with these two. Lets see if I have the time