UFC 221 PBP/Discussion

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 10, 2018.

  1. t6p

    t6p Brown Belt

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    He was rewarded for blantantly cheating. He would have been finished if not for the eye gouge and instead of fight of the night it likely would have been performance of the night for Matthews.
     
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  2. raketmannen

    raketmannen Purple Belt

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    oh hit a pretty sweet special I forgot about, 0.3u on Pedro and Formiga to win by submission +1400
     
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  3. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    Just watching the event. I capped Matthews to be the right side, but had to resist daily not to hypebet Li and ended up taking Mat sub and Li tko losing only 0.5u. I suppose that’s half a victory.
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Honestly, I don't regret being on the Li side. It cost me a lot, but it wasn't due to the group think that I sometimes fall prey to in here. It was straight up me capping the fight wrong, and Matthews just (evidently, because I couldn't watch it) looking far better than what I saw on tape.

    This place is an invaluable resource, but sometimes the drawback is that there's a vast majority on one guy and it's a circle jerk and rationality suffers in capping the fight. Not sure if that happened with Li here with others, but I can honestly say it didn't happen to me. I was straight up wrong, all on my own.

    It hurts for sure that being on the wrong side of that fight was anywhere from a 15u to 18u swing for me (depending on whether Li had finished or not). Up 7.1u but would have been up 22u or 25u had Li won depending on method. But somehow it hurts less in that it was my own capping that lost, and not that I was swayed into betting more than I should by the group think in here. Li was my favorite play on the card (maybe along with Yoel), and I just swung and missed.
     
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  5. kdubbinn

    kdubbinn White Belt

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    whats the link to the discord? would love to join
     
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  6. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Orange Belt

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    There's an interesting dynamic sometimes for sure. There was a massive consensus about Tuivasa in the forum leading up to the fight and look how that turned out. Although I was surprised more weren't on Blaydes. That fight might've fallen victim to groupthink. I saw a few people dismiss the Lesnar gameplan too easily.

    Tough luck with the Li fight but whatever, it was a really weird one. It was literally a fingernail away from being stopped by the doctor. I don't fault the ref there though; in real-time, and with the gloves sorta in the way, it all happened quite fast. I digress. It was just a strange fight.

    Get 'em next time.
     
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  7. AxeMurderer

    AxeMurderer Orange Belt

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    Yeah but he he kept grabbing Matthews gloves, had a few fence grabs and just gouged Matthews eyes to get out of a sub. That would not be things I would reward.
     
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  8. LEMONZEST

    LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    Yeah i hear where you are coming from. He still went hard and the right guy won so its less of an issue.

    Also UFC is most interested in exciting fights and on that front he delivered.

    Compare Li to Abe who obeyed all rules but put on a weak ass performance...Li sbould be rewarded more than Abe imo.
     
  9. pytycrys

    pytycrys Green Belt

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    I'm not good with technology and shit, @piglord has it, not sure if that will change for next week?
     
  10. LEMONZEST

    LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

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    i dont think Leech is a cheat i honestly think he was caught up in the moment. i could be wrong....

    Thats what we want fighters that go balls to the wall.

    of course eye gouge was bad but just looking at the other side of it.
     
  11. NorthernLights

    NorthernLights Blue Belt

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    Look at it like Matthews being compensated for Li's cheating if it makes you feel any better...because if they gave FOTN to someone else he would have gotten robbed of both a finish and a bonus
     
  12. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I did the same. I was waiting for Matthews to get up to +200 and pulled the trigger late on Li at -150.
     
  13. Yotsuya

    Yotsuya Blue Belt

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    -2.5u but what a satisfying night! I was down 6u but got 5/6=2u from my 0.28u devils advocate parlay and 2.4u for betting 3u on Romero at 1.8, which I’ve been stressing ever since Romero became the dog. Soldier of God, I salute you!
     
  14. Gugabe

    Gugabe Blue Belt

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    Yeah. So far as the Li-bet's concerned, even the media picks I've seen were about 80% in favor of him. Matthews showed a bunch of capabilities that he simply hasn't throughout the rest of his career. That didn't look like the dude who got bullied for what should have been clear losses against Holbrook and Velickovic. I'm not sure how Matthews' hands came along so much in a 3 month period, downright mystifying to me. I would have handily taken just about all of the UFC fighters Li had wins against to beat the Matthews I saw in those last two fights.
     
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  15. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    IMO, the Holbrook fight was a strange one. He's a guy that fishes for submissions that really aren't there, but you still have to defend it so he doesn't get it in position. It's more annoying than anything, and the judges score it like he actually has legit sub attempts. It's basically an illusion of him being active. I think Matthews just got frustrated in that one. But yea, he did look awful against Velickovic.
     
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  16. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

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    If li got wrestlefucked id have regretted my bet cos i had a bad feeling in my gut that matthews could steal the fight with wrestling. I never saw the fight playing out how it did i dont think anyone could have. Fair play to matthews he answered a lot of doubters me included.
     
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  17. Gugabe

    Gugabe Blue Belt

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    Prettymuch. I accounted for the possibility of Matthews subbing a cold Li early. I didn't foresee Matthews winning a brawl like that.
     
  18. waiguoren

    waiguoren Black Belt

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    Nothing I hate more about this sport than late stoppages. Steve Perceval should have lost his job a long time ago. Asker will never be the same person after that.
     
  19. waiguoren

    waiguoren Black Belt

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    I'm just catching up now. That is by far the worst scorecard I've seen since Pearson- Sanchez or Pendred-Spencer. The scoring on this card was probably the worst of any event I've seen.
     
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  20. raketmannen

    raketmannen Purple Belt

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    Agree..
    Just rewatched the Adesanya fight aswell also Perceval reffing, Wilkinson was fucking bent over for 30 seconds just trying to cover his head, took about 30-40 unanswered blows and the ref did not step in untill he fell on the ground. Fucking referees who have been in there for thousands of fights and can't see the difference between fighting back/intelligent defence and just surviving
     

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