UFC 212 - Aldo vs Holloway - Rio de Janeiro

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Huge action on Max. I'm am going to have to move up my tape review to tonight.

Need to watch Aldo vs Edgar again, and probably Pettis vs Max. I'm feeling a 3u bet on Aldo though (about as large as I go pre fight)
 
I do like Belfort quite a lot in this fight, to you think his line will improve? I guess he will become a heavier favourite in the next days
 
Hammered Aldo @1.91. I love Holloway, but Aldo's a different animal. He looked sensational against Frankie. 58% Aldo.

Also big on Gadelha @1.37. Just dont see how she loses. She wins JJ in a 3-rounder and KK is basically a watered down version of JJ. Re-watched Gadelha-Casey (who kinda impressed me in her last fight) and man, Gadelha just ragdolled her even thought Casey is huge for the weightclass. Gadelha 80%+ imo.
 
2bet said:
I do like Belfort quite a lot in this fight, to you think his line will improve? I guess he will become a heavier favourite in the next days
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me too. idk why lines are so tight. Vitor's TDD holds up if he fights someone outside top 10. I think he smokes Nate. Even old vitor is much faster than Nate.
 
ughh I should have waited to bet Aldo -- I am already very invested.
 
onC said:
Also big on Gadelha @1.37. Just dont see how she loses. She wins JJ in a 3-rounder and KK is basically a watered down version of JJ. Re-watched Gadelha-Casey (who kinda impressed me in her last fight) and man, Gadelha just ragdolled her even thought Casey is huge for the weightclass. Gadelha 80%+ imo.
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Didn't watch tape yet but I agree, Gadelha 1.37 (1.36 in my bookie) looks good parlay material and I really hate parlaying heavy favourites. Not in this case

King_Brown said:
me too. idk why lines are so tight. Vitor's TDD holds up if he fights someone outside top 10. I think he smokes Nate. Even old vitor is much faster than Nate.
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Difficult fight to predict with both fighters shot imo but I favour Belfort in the striking too. Marquardt low volume/ 0 pressure style fits perfectly with Belfort imo. But I'm not confident, Belfort always has been very fragile even in his prime and his ground game is shit.
 
Man. Was really hoping to get Max +140 or better. Might have to end up on Aldo.

I do like the over

Confused to why Lopez is such a big fave

Gonna fade Silva. The guy is like Mr Glass from Unbreakable
 
Wow Vitor -135??? I know he's looked shot his last few fights but geez, Jacare-Mousasi-Kelvin??? All 3 of those guys are solid/possible future champs. Maybe I'm being biased but -135 for Vitor in brazil seems like a steal against someone like Marquardt. Also Karolina @ +250 might be worth a small stab. Could see KK defending the takedowns and 29-28'ing Claudia. +160 for Assuncao may be worth looking in to, but I have a lot of faith in the Moraes hype train. Maybe a small stab is worth it for whatever the odds are on Assuncao by decision :rolleyes:
 
Have a feeling Vitor is gonna starch Nate quick. Or get countered quick
 
Robin Black thinks Jose has to finish Max to win this fight. So basically he thinks Aldo has no chance to win a decision... hmm

<Prem974>
 
I'm starting to lean Vitor against Marquart. Both old fighters most definitely at the end stages of their career with both of their chins being tested thoroughly as of late.
In all honesty I actually think Vitor has more of a chin that Nate at this point. Everybody only remembers Vitors knockouts but they forget its never remotely close to one shot that putting him away.

In every knockout I can think of he takes a huge shot and gets rocked then gets GNP'd into oblivion. Not a thing I can see Marquart doing. Marquart doesn't have that bezerker forward pressure that troubles Vitor, he stands back and picks his shots more so especially now he knows his chin is shot.

I see Vitor connecting with a blitz and finishing Nate early. However the safest bet on the fight has got to be doesn't go the distance. Just checked and Vitor last 14 fights didn't go the distance.. Which is pretty amazing.
 
Polarize said:
Belfort always has been very fragile even in his prime and his ground game is shit.
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I know it looks shit in some moments but come on. He has been subbed just twice in his career. By Jon Jones (who was legit bigger than him) and 2005 ADCC Overeem. Prime black belt wrestler Weidman was on top of him and BJJ World champ Jacare. No shame if regular black belt gets smacked around by them. Nate has one sub win in last 9 years so. Anyway this fight will be decided on the feet.
 
REEMwillbeCHAMP said:
Wow Vitor -135??? I know he's looked shot his last few fights but geez, Jacare-Mousasi-Kelvin??? All 3 of those guys are solid/possible future champs. Maybe I'm being biased but -135 for Vitor in brazil seems like a steal against someone like Marquardt. Also Karolina @ +250 might be worth a small stab. Could see KK defending the takedowns and 29-28'ing Claudia. +160 for Assuncao may be worth looking in to, but I have a lot of faith in the Moraes hype train. Maybe a small stab is worth it for whatever the odds are on Assuncao by decision :rolleyes:
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Be shocked if kk can defend the td. Jj couldnt and kk has been taken down by rose hjo and randa. Gadelha's td's are best in the division easily.
 
King_Brown said:
Robin Black thinks Jose has to finish Max to win this fight. So basically he thinks Aldo has no chance to win a decision... hmm

<Prem974>
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thats so retarded.

Robin Black is a floofy doofy idiot. He spends a hour recording himself "philosophising" about MMA and thinking out loud, then never reaches any conclusion. He reminds me of those hipster arts degree snobs from college.
 
iGnP said:
ALDO AT -110?!?!?!!?!

Do I bet or do I hope it keeps going. omg omg omg
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I hit it.

Dude, if you like the value then hit it. That's my rule of thumb. I'd rather hit it at a price I like and miss the best price (you can always add) than pass on a price I like and not be able to get it back.

Hell I bet the opener on Frankie vs Yair at -195 and even though he got close to evens (I added to him) I was still happy with my value at -195 because I was very confident the fight would go exactly the way it ended up going. I could have seen frankie being a -300 fav vs Yair after the opener. The line went the other way, but that's not the point.
 
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