UFC 212 - Aldo vs Holloway - Rio de Janeiro

[iGnP]

I hit it.

Dude, if you like the value then hit it. That's my rule of thumb. I'd rather hit it at a price I like and miss the best price than pass on a price I like and not be able to get it back.

Hell I bet the opener on Frankie vs Yair at -195 and even though he got close to evens (I added to him) I was still happy with my value at -195 because I was very confident the fight would go exactly the way it ended up going. I could have seen frankie being a -300 fav vs Yair after the opener. The line went the other way, but that's not the point.

Yep already did. I agree that you take the great odds if they present themselves rather than being greedy

 

[ill800]

Aldo knocked down, added another 2 units

Now I need Claudia to get knocked down. Wanted to hit her decision line straight when it was -130

Couldn't help myself at the sub line @+975
Parlayed with Jose ud $20 to win about $900 lol

 

[Antagonist88]

Props up, don't know if I missed them earlier.

And for what its worth, checked Fury's tracking site and he hasn't bet yet. So the Aldo movement is something else.

Stabbed Marquardt ITD +166 for 0.66u. Seems safe to say the fight isn't going to decision, so I'll take the dog odds here.

EDIT: Moyle DEC +157 for her backers. I'm probably passing on this fight

 

[Polarize]

I know it looks shit in some moments but come on. He has been subbed just twice in his career. By Jon Jones (who was legit bigger than him) and 2005 ADCC Overeem. Prime black belt wrestler Weidman was on top of him and BJJ World champ Jacare. No shame if regular black belt gets smacked around by them. Nate has one sub win in last 9 years so. Anyway this fight will be decided on the feet.

Well, "shit" is maybe exaggerated but he is weak on the ground even if he hasn't been subbed a lot (post-TRT he looks terrible). The Weidman lose was pathetic. He is exploitable.

For example, Anderson Silva is a striker, bjj black belt past his prime like Belfort but he doesn't look lose in the ground even if he is fighting better grapplers/wrestlers. He is legit on the ground, Belfort no imo.

I would pick Marquardt over Belfort in any type of grappling match all day

 

[Antagonist88]

Considering playing the o2.5 for Assuncao/Moraes but not sure if it's worth the juice. Moraes murks guys in WSOF, but it's WSOF so don't know how much to read into that.

 

[2bet]

I know it looks shit in some moments but come on. He has been subbed just twice in his career. By Jon Jones (who was legit bigger than him) and 2005 ADCC Overeem. Prime black belt wrestler Weidman was on top of him and BJJ World champ Jacare. No shame if regular black belt gets smacked around by them. Nate has one sub win in last 9 years so. Anyway this fight will be decided on the feet.

Imagine if Vitor had broken Jones' elbow with his armbar, that would have been the shit <45>
Although Jones did totally dominate most of his fights, he also is a lucky guy.
Vitor could have broken his elbow.
The fight with Gus was very close.
And let's not forget that he could have lost to Chael due to that gruesome toe injury, 27 more seconds and Chael would have made it to round 2 - who knows, the fight might have been stopped in between rounds. Or Chael could have stomped that shittoe haha

 

[Polarize]

Imagine if Vitor had broken Jones' elbow with his armbar, that would have been the shit <45>

If I'm not mistaken his arm was fucked with the armbar, but Jones refused to tap, he's a lucky guy and a beast

 

[King_Brown]

If I'm not mistaken his arm was fucked with the armbar, but Jones refused to tap, he's a lucky guy and a beast

 

[cagebrain]

Can someone explain to me why everyone is on Marquardt's nuts?

Sure Vitor's looked like shit since coming off TRT but he's only faced legit top guys, Weidman, Kelvin, Jacare, Mousasi. But in those fights he still showed the rd1 blitz that can knock out defensively poor or chinny fighters. He still smoked chinny Dan Henderson off TRT.

Meanwhile Marquart's lost to Brad Tavares, Thiago Santos and Sam freaking Alvey in a decision. Who the hell loses to Alvey by decision? Tentative much?

Marquardt's chinny as hell nowadays. I see Vitor sleeping him in the first. If Vitor gets to dog odds im betting him (small bet, no doubt this fight is high variance)

Counterpoint anyone?

 

[Antagonist88]

Can someone explain to me why everyone is on Marquardt's nuts?

Counterpoint anyone?

Vitor has still shown the blitz, but we've also seen what happens when he gets put on his back. Or when he gets hit; he's also chinny, and Marquardt has real power. He also has the cardio edge if it matters.

But also, he's the dog. And this is a fight between two chinny heavy hitters near the end of their careers. Both have the same path to victory, but Marquardt does also have the ability to grind out Vitor. But again, he's the dog, and it's a coinflip.

 

[quincy k]

Can someone explain to me why everyone is on Marquardt's nuts?

Sure Vitor's looked like shit since coming off TRT but he's only faced legit top guys, Weidman, Kelvin, Jacare, Mousasi. But in those fights he still showed the rd1 blitz that can knock out defensively poor or chinny fighters. He still smoked chinny Dan Henderson off TRT.

Meanwhile Marquart's lost to Brad Tavares, Thiago Santos and Sam freaking Alvey in a decision. Who the hell loses to Alvey by decision? Tentative much?

Marquardt's chinny as hell nowadays. I see Vitor sleeping him in the first. If Vitor gets to dog odds im betting him (small bet, no doubt this fight is high variance)

Counterpoint anyone?

there is no guarantee that vitor is going to do any better against a gatekeeper like nate than contenders like jacare and mousasi

the best way to play this is to live bet nate after the first round but then you are going to pay -200 or so if marquadt has not been hurt or kd

 

[quincy k]

Vitor has still shown the blitz, but we've also seen what happens when he gets put on his back. Or when he gets hit; he's also chinny, and Marquardt has real power. He also has the cardio edge if it matters.

But also, he's the dog. And this is a fight between two chinny heavy hitters near the end of their careers. Both have the same path to victory, but Marquardt does also have the ability to grind out Vitor. But again, he's the dog, and it's a coinflip.

and since its not going to go to the cards the brazilian judges wont be a factor.

i think nate should not be an underdog because a 40-year-old guy who has been (t)kod in four of his last five fights should never be a favorite especially when he was a trt user

 

[quincy k]

I do like Belfort quite a lot in this fight, to you think his line will improve? I guess he will become a heavier favourite in the next days

the last two times that vitor has fought in brazil he has been stopped

he doesnt even have that angle going for him. its not like betting bisbing in the UK where hell get hit clean after the bell against anderson and find the resolve to fight through it being at home in front of his crowd

vitor just packs it in.

 

[Monster Meat]

aldo by decision at +200 now ok fine

 

[piglord]

nate looked appauling in his last fight, at least vitor showed he's still got his hand speed and power. i favour vitor at pick 'em odds, so why not?

it wouldn't be worse than my cirkunov bet.

 

[OutRun]

I'm on Gadelha, Assuncao, Aldo, and Shoeface. Unit sizes undecided, but my confidence is in the order I just listed. Can somebody convince me not to go big on Assuncao?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Deiveson Alcantara recent fight vs only good guy hes fought. Was really impressed with his opponent, he fucked Deiveson up. 2 knockdowns in the first round.

I'm playing Beltran dec +400. Kind of surprised this isn't closer to pick em. Deiveson will be smaller and doesn't even seem very fast. Beltran has shown solid work recognizing space, controlling it, and finding attacks on a pressuring opponent which I expect Deiveson will be. Deiveson clearly tough as nails though. He was basically KOd twice in that fight ^^ but recovered well and came back to land a shot.

Gonna go .66u on Beltran dec, would do more but idk enough of Deiveson's wrestling.

 

[ill800]

aldo by decision at +200 now ok fine

I just can't resist these juicy aldo lines

Ud up to +315

Adding more parlays with Aldo and Claudia


I still need someone like Luca fury to bet kk so I can get a better line, but there's no way he's betting her.

I'm actually worried she's going to get bet up

 

[ChoKuRei]

Initial leans


-Jose Aldo def. Max Holloway

-Nate Marquardt def. Vitor Belfort

-Yancy Medeiros def Erick Silva

-Luan Chagas def. Jim Wallhead

-Rafael Assuncao def. Marlon Moraes

 

[Joseph Budden]

If anyone can find the kelleher vs Arce fights that would be amazing