Life is often about checks and balances and this fight is no different. One thing I fail to hear many people mention when discussing this fight is that Khabib Nurmagomedov is the far better athlete of the two, he has the faster reflexes, the faster hand speed and is physically much stronger. However Tony has the longest reach of anyone Khabib has ever fought, Ferguson with a whopping 76.5 inch wingspan boasts the longest reach in the UFC's entire Lightweight division, along with his torrential offensive output and seemingly endless reservoir of energy to draw from, he's not without his own physical advantages going into this fight.
Closing the Distance
One of the key's for Khabib Nurmagomedov will be finding ways to effectively close the distance. His game is centered around getting a hold of his opponents and this will be crucial considering the reach and output of Ferguson. Khabib has shown us mainly a handful of ways he closes distance throughout his career of which are lead hooks, uppercuts and jump knees.
Tony Ferguson will want to look to counter the knees and uppercuts when Khabib leaps in to close distance by sliding off the center line and countering, that way he can effectively counter strike while also keeping separation in space between him and Khabib. When Khabib leaps in with hooks, Ferguson's cross and straight kicks down the middle will be there to counter and effectively halt Khabib's attempt at closing the distance. Also cashing in on an elbow when Khabib's leaving himself open on the inside while leaping in with a hook would not be a bad idea, opening a fighter up early often proves to be a huge advantage as the fight goes on.
Things to Avoid
One last way Khabib likes to close distance is by shooting in, while Nurmagomedov is excellent at getting takedowns from distance, his bread and butter is the body lock and chain wrestling from the cage. Khabib's first takedown attempt often fails when he shoots in at distance on a single or a double, but it causes his opponents to focus solely on defending the takedown so he effectively can close distance while mitigating the threat of repercussions. I believe this is something Khabib will want to avoid doing vs Tony Ferguson however. Ferguson is not a fighter who's all that worried about being taken down, he will look to exploit Khabib's openings with his own offense if the Russian tries shooting in. Tony being at his most lethal when he finds himself in the front headlock position, often times from his opponents shooting in on him.
And for Tony, considering in Combat Sambo chokes are not allowed so there's more of an emphasis on leg locks than in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu or No Gi grappling, Khabib being a multiple time Combat Sambo world champion, I imagine he's been in countless leg lock attempts and is comfortable defending them in addition to his amazing positional control and thunderous ground and pound from top position, that will be even more of a threat if Ferguson has both of his hands attacking Khabib's leg he won't be able to effectively defend his face. El Cucuy will be in serious danger of getting his face smashed in if he thinks Imanari rolls and rolling for legs to get out of back body locks are good ideas vs Khabib.
Finding the Right Takedowns
While Tony is no stranger to being taken down, in his last 5 fights he was only taken down twice and that was by Rafael Dos Anjos who did not maintain top position for more than a few seconds each time. Both takedown attempts where thwarted by Tony's offensive rubber guard and butterfly guard. Also, Tony often allows himself to be put in jeopardy of being taken down to further his offensive attacks, he embraces the scrambles and works hard off of his back when he does wind up there. He attacks with leg locks, triangles, kimuras, sweeps, rubber guard and is very effective from his back at throwing elbows similar to Carlos Condit and he does it all relentlessly without tiring. Ferguson has also shown us taking him down is no easy task when he's focused on defending the takedown, and I suspect he will look for takedowns of his own at certain points in the fight vs Khabib.
As previously mentioned, Khabib may want to avoid shooting in on Ferguson but chain wrestling Ferguson against the cage may serve him well, it won't allow Ferguson the space to sprawl, it will inhibit his ability to attack with chokes and stifle his attempts at creating scrambles.
Khabib has shown us brilliant Judo throws from time to time throughout his career, because of the Gi in Sambo Judo techniques are more emphasized in Sambo than in MMA but Khabib is also a black belt in Judo. So this is none too shocking, however Khabib mostly uses his throws as a form of counter-wrestling so when Tony looks for a takedown of his own in a chain-wrestling sequence there will be openings for Khabib to hit his throws being the stronger man with the much lower center of gravity, I suspect with ease.
Khabib also has great position awareness, he commonly sets takedowns up to where he lands in his opponents half guard and side control. He's also quite savvy at attacking with trips while going for takedowns to give his opponents more to think about while jeopardizing their balance.
Controlling the Distance
Tony Ferguson is as gangly as they come, and using his length to control distance is going to be a key for him in this fight. Some of Ferguson's most effective strikes are his jabs and straight kicks. Which, in a 3 round fight we less often see the accumulative effects from but I feel they will pay off in the later rounds if he can effectively utilize his stiff jab, Khabib will begin to wear the damage. And darting his front kicks into the Dagestani's bread basket will also pay dividends at depleting his energy. These are also strikes that Ferguson has become very good at building off of to land combinations. Straight kicks and jabs are fundamental at controlling distance, and Tony will want to keep Khabib off of him as much as possible, especially in the early rounds.
(I'm sorry There's just not a lot gifs to find of Ferguson throwing straight kicks and jabs unfortunately)
In Closing
There's undoubtedly some question marks going into this fight that we lack sufficient information to draw upon. While Ferguson fights like a long lost Diaz brother in the sense that he never tires and the moment you begin to wane even the slightest, he begins to increase the intensity tenfold. We still have not seen Khabib fight past 3 rounds and there's reason to believe that an endless onslaught of takedown attempts isn't manageable for the full 25 minutes of a Championship fight.
While we have never seen anyone offer Khabib any real resistance from their back, nor threaten him in anyway. It has also been years since we've seen Ferguson controlled from his back and he seems to be effective at creating scrambles, attacking and frustrating his opponents whenever the fight has gone there in the past. We've also never seen Khabib face a guard practitioner like Ferguson before in MMA.
Tony Ferguson is kind of like Forrest Griffin in the sense that he needs to get punched in the face a few times before he gets in the zone, he comes out from the start aggressive but he usually loses the first round as you can see from his last 3 fights and both times he was rocked during this 9 fight win streak to the title were also in the first round vs Trujillo and Groovy Lando Vannata. Will Khabib be able to exploit this however?
Another big question mark is, while Tony seems to be a one man dynamo of energy, Khabib from top position seems to be a black hole that devours his opponents energy. His ability to trap your arms from half guard and land smashing ground and pound while you only have 1 arm to defend yourself, the way he looks for the crucifix when he passes into side-control when he pounds on you while you're defenseless, the constant takedowns and drag downs from riding position and how heavy from top he is. Maybe we finally see Ferguson's spirit break?
This is a clashing of two very different kinds of pressure fighters. Nurmagomedov's imposition of his will has been unstoppable while Ferguson's tenacity and perseverance in this current 9 fight run has seemed able to weather anything in his way.
