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He will kick Nate's leg off and take it home with him.. No way he would loose to Nate.
Yeah, Cerrone and a lot other guys have unsuccessfully tried that with the Diaz brothers. Nick/Nate certainly have holes in their games (poor wrestling, not checking leg kicks). However, if you don't design and follow a really good gameplan, they're hard to beat. Trying to out-tough and outbrawl Nate and Nick has very rarely worked...and Gaethje is getting more damaged and chinny every time he fights.
Gaethje would need to use some wrestling against Nate. I don't know how good his submission defense is, though...I don't think it's ever been tested, especially against a high-level BJJ guy.