Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - March, 2018

[mkess101]

Taking Nats tonight after splitting 2 MLB plays today (won on o7.5 Reds/Dodgers by half a run, lost on o10.5 Brewers/Rockies by half a run LOL).

Hellickson has thrown 2 good outings in a row and Nats are super hot right now. Godley has been good for D Backs but not as much lately with 2 bad outings in his last 3 starts. Line feels a bit like a trap with the red hot Nats at + money (+116) but I still see value so gonna put 1.5u on it.

 

[iGnP]

Taking Nats tonight after splitting 2 MLB plays today (won on o7.5 Reds/Dodgers by half a run, lost on o10.5 Brewers/Rockies by half a run LOL).

Hellickson has thrown 2 good outings in a row and Nats are super hot right now. Godley has been good for D Backs but not as much lately with 2 bad outings in his last 3 starts. Line feels a bit like a trap with the red hot Nats at + money (+116) but I still see value so gonna put 1.5u on it.

I'm on the first five under, but not confident enough for a normal play. this is more of a gut bet. why do you think the Nats are hot? theyre batting pretty poorly recently based on what they're capable of

@timmyclax22 in case you wanna tail

edit: that's u4.5 runs in the first five innings at (+100) for half a unit

 

[mkess101]

I'm on the first five under, but not confident enough for a normal play. this is more of a gut bet. why do you think the Nats are hot? theyre batting pretty poorly recently based on what they're capable of

@timmyclax22 in case you wanna tail

edit: that's u4.5 runs in the first five innings at (+100) for half a unit

Hot as in winning. 8-2 in their last 10 games, much of it based on their starting pitching (Hellickson included in that as he's had 2 really good outings in a row).

 

[iGnP]

Hot as in winning. 8-2 in their last 10 games, much of it based on their starting pitching (Hellickson included in that as he's had 2 really good outings in a row).

how much stock do you put into that, though? i mean look at their last 5 games for instance, where they are 4-1. they've scored 4, 1, 2, 3, and 2 runs. theyre winning because of their pitching and/or the opposing teams bats being cold. if its the latter, its more of a coincidence that theyre winning versus them being hot, because there's a different pitcher on the mound

 

[mkess101]

how much stock do you put into that, though? i mean look at their last 5 games for instance, where they are 4-1. they've scored 4, 1, 2, 3, and 2 runs. theyre winning because of their pitching and/or the opposing teams bats being cold. if its the latter, its more of a coincidence that theyre winning versus them being hot, because there's a different pitcher on the mound

IDK, I think you can always look at it both ways. Is a team pitching really well, or are they just getting lucky going up against cold hitting night in and night out. My opinion is that it's almost always a combination of both.

Looking at Hellickson's last 2 games, he'd given up 0 ER over 12 innings or so with 12 K's and no walks. He seems to be in a good groove. Godley meanwhile has been bad lately, giving up 4 ER in 2 of his last 3 starts with a K:BB ratio of 13:10, which is brutal. Your giving me a team with the best record in baseball over the last 3 weeks (however they are getting wins, they're getting them) with a pitcher throwing the ball well vs a team that's 3-7 in their last 10 with a pitcher who's struggled badly over his last 3 starts...and I get + money?? Trap or no, I'm taking it.

 

[iGnP]

IDK, I think you can always look at it both ways. Is a team pitching really well, or are they just getting lucky going up against cold hitting night in and night out. My opinion is that it's almost always a combination of both.

Looking at Hellickson's last 2 games, he'd given up 0 ER over 12 innings or so with 12 K's and no walks. He seems to be in a good groove. Godley meanwhile has been bad lately, giving up 4 ER in 2 of his last 3 starts with a K:BB ratio of 13:10, which is brutal. Your giving me a team with the best record in baseball over the last 3 weeks (however they are getting wins, they're getting them) with a pitcher throwing the ball well vs a team that's 3-7 in their last 10 with a pitcher who's struggled badly over his last 3 starts...and I get + money?? Trap or no, I'm taking it.

Godley's home split has been much better. He has bettr control with the humidor in play, which seems to be the biggest difference between the two results. in 18 innings pitched at home, he has a 1.96 ERA with a 16:5 k to bb ratio (versus 5.4 ERA on the road with a 21:13 k to bb ratio). He also hasnt given up a homerun at home while he has given up 3 on the road

 

[mkess101]

Godley's home split has been much better. He has bettr control with the humidor in play, which seems to be the biggest difference between the two results. in 18 innings pitched at home, he has a 1.96 ERA with a 16:5 k to bb ratio (versus 5.4 ERA on the road with a 21:13 k to bb ratio). He also hasnt given up a homerun at home while he has given up 3 on the road

Very true, but literally right as I typed this Harper went yard on him LOL.

But honestly, it's the K:BB ratio that stuck out more to me lately than anything. I know 2 of the 3 were on the road, but 13:10 over his last 3 games is really bad. 5:3 in the home start over 5 innings. I think Godley is a decent starter, but lately we are seeing some natural regression from what he was doing early in the year. He has decent stuff, but nothing overwhelming.

 

[iGnP]

Very true, but literally right as I typed this Harper went yard on him LOL.

But honestly, it's the K:BB ratio that stuck out more to me lately than anything. I know 2 of the 3 were on the road, but 13:10 over his last 3 games is really bad. 5:3 in the home start over 5 innings. I think Godley is a decent starter, but lately we are seeing some natural regression from what he was doing early in the year. He has decent stuff, but nothing overwhelming.

i think Godley is better than average. agree or na?

 

[mkess101]

i think Godley is better than average. agree or na?

Uhh...right at average I guess? If I'm a playoff contending team I damn sure don't want him as my #2 starter, am okay with him as my #3, and am very very happy if he's my #4.

 

[iGnP]

bang bang. first five under cashes!



side note: still offering free baseball picks to anyone wanting them. shoot me a PM

 

[mkess101]

Kintzler with the meltdown. Nats pen has been great lately, but tonight...ugh.

 

[mkess101]

Kintzler with the meltdown. Nats pen has been great lately, but tonight...ugh.

Reynolds bails me out with the 8th inning homer after D Backs tied it up. Nice.

 

[iGnP]

Reynolds bails me out with the 8th inning homer after D Backs tied it up. Nice.

He destroyed that ball

 

[iGnP]

Taking a shot on the Cubs live right now with the score 6-4 Atlanta. Quintana just didn't have it today but he's out of the game. Teheran isn't pitching great by any means but the Braves dont really have a good bullpen imo. Balls are leaving the outfield today, a 2 run lead can disappear very quickly

Cubs LB +225 for 0.4u

 

[mkess101]

Taking a shot on the Cubs live right now with the score 6-4 Atlanta. Quintana just didn't have it today but he's out of the game. Teheran isn't pitching great by any means but the Braves dont really have a good bullpen imo. Balls are leaving the outfield today, a 2 run lead can disappear very quickly

Cubs LB +225 for 0.4u

Celtics still at + $ to win the series. You bite on that or nah?

 

[iGnP]

Celtics still at + $ to win the series. You bite on that or nah?

No. I went through some of the stats of last nights game and switched my stance. I might be on the Cavs in game 2. Not sure though, obv will post before game time

 

[iGnP]

Man, I really like the Warriors tonight but I have to temper some expectations. The Warriors have looked so good in the playoffs. They're 5-5 ATS in the postseason, but looking at it more deeply, we can see that number can be a little skewed:

Game 5 against the Spurs- Warriors were an 11 point favorite. They led the game by 14 going into the fourth quarter, where they were outscored by 6 in essentially meaningless basketball, which lead to the Spurs covering the spread in back door fashion

Game 2 against the Pelicans- Warriors were 11 point favorites. They led the game by 13 points with less than 2 minutes left on the clock and eventually end up winning the game by only 5 points thanks to some loose play and a late run by the Pelicans

Game 5 against the Pelicans- Warriors were 12 point favorites. They led the game by 20 going into the fourth quarter, where they were outscored by 11 and the Pelicans back-door'd the spread

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If all of those games went the opposite way, and the Warriors ended up with an 8-2 ATS record going into this series, what do you think the line would be in game 1? I don't think the Rockets would be favored IMO. So inherently, I think there is line value on the Warriors because of the "garbage time" success of previous teams in the playoffs.

What we see here is the Warriors dominate then take their foot off the pedal once they have enough cushion. There's no question that they've been taking it easy throughout the regular season, which ultimately lead to their abysmal ATS record (Vegas overrating them also plays a factor in this, knowing a lot of people love betting on the Warriors). The concern of them taking their foot off the pedal isn't a factor in tonight's game because they're the underdogs. The Warriors are in a unique position here. They're a dog and playing on the road for the first time in a game 1 in who knows how long. This is the closest a team has been to them, odds wise, since their first championship run. Do I think they come out and try to prove a point? Yes I do. I cant remember the last time the Warriors played a meaningful game and lost. But i also acknowledge that the way the game is called will dictate the game. If the refs are giving the Rockets their usual bs calls, it's going to make the Warriors' life that much more difficult. Much like yesterday's BOS/CLE game, I believe the long lay-off will benefit the better coached team, which imo, is the Warriors

Gimme the Warriors ML at + odds

 

[iGnP]

Taking a shot on the Cubs live right now with the score 6-4 Atlanta. Quintana just didn't have it today but he's out of the game. Teheran isn't pitching great by any means but the Braves dont really have a good bullpen imo. Balls are leaving the outfield today, a 2 run lead can disappear very quickly

Cubs LB +225 for 0.4u

def had a good chance with bases loaded in the 9th inning. oh well, cant win them all. def the right side, though

 

[mkess101]

Man, I really like the Warriors tonight but I have to temper some expectations. The Warriors have looked so good in the playoffs. They're 5-5 ATS in the postseason, but looking at it more deeply, we can see that number can be a little skewed:

Game 5 against the Spurs- Warriors were an 11 point favorite. They led the game by 14 going into the fourth quarter, where they were outscored by 6 in essentially meaningless basketball, which lead to the Spurs covering the spread in back door fashion

Game 2 against the Pelicans- Warriors were 11 point favorites. They led the game by 13 points with less than 2 minutes left on the clock and eventually end up winning the game by only 5 points thanks to some loose play and a late run by the Pelicans

Game 5 against the Pelicans- Warriors were 12 point favorites. They led the game by 20 going into the fourth quarter, where they were outscored by 11 and the Pelicans back-door'd the spread

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

If all of those games went the opposite way, and the Warriors ended up with an 8-2 ATS record going into this series, what do you think the line would be in game 1? I don't think the Rockets would be favored IMO. So inherently, I think there is line value on the Warriors because of the "garbage time" success of previous teams in the playoffs.

What we see here is the Warriors dominate then take their foot off the pedal once they have enough cushion. There's no question that they've been taking it easy throughout the regular season, which ultimately lead to their abysmal ATS record (Vegas overrating them also plays a factor in this, knowing a lot of people love betting on the Warriors). The concern of them taking their foot off the pedal isn't a factor in tonight's game because they're the underdogs. The Warriors are in a unique position here. They're a dog and playing on the road for the first time in a game 1 in who knows how long. This is the closest a team has been to them, odds wise, since their first championship run. Do I think they come out and try to prove a point? Yes I do. I cant remember the last time the Warriors played a meaningful game and lost. But i also acknowledge that the way the game is called will dictate the game. If the refs are giving the Rockets their usual bs calls, it's going to make the Warriors' life that much more difficult. Much like yesterday's BOS/CLE game, I believe the long lay-off will benefit the better coached team, which imo, is the Warriors

Gimme the Warriors ML at + odds

I'm actually thinking of playing the Rockets tonight, though I favor the Warriors in the series. Haven't pulled the trigger yet. My rationale is that while Golden State **might** want to make a statement tonight, this game means a LOT more to Houston than it does the Warriors. Houston is the team with "little brother" syndrome. They're the team that didn't even try to hide the fact that everything they've done is with the purpose of beating Golden State. If they come out at home in game 1 and flop (when the arena is gonna be bonkers) it is gonna be HUGELY deflating for them. The Warriors meanwhile can lose tonight by 20, shrug, and get back to business. I'm thinking the Rockets win tonight and then Golden State might be a GREAT play in game 2.

 

[iGnP]

I'm actually thinking of playing the Rockets tonight, though I favor the Warriors in the series. Haven't pulled the trigger yet. My rationale is that while Golden State **might** want to make a statement tonight, this game means a LOT more to Houston than it does the Warriors. Houston is the team with "little brother" syndrome. They're the team that didn't even try to hide the fact that everything they've done is with the purpose of beating Golden State. If they come out at home in game 1 and flop (when the arena is gonna be bonkers) it is gonna be HUGELY deflating for them. The Warriors meanwhile can lose tonight by 20, shrug, and get back to business. I'm thinking the Rockets win tonight and then Golden State might be a GREAT play in game 2.

That's why im tempering expectations and not making this a big play, just a standard 2u bet. I dont disagree with that but I dont think the Warriors are taking this game lightly one bit, especially with everyone hyping the Rockets as the best team the Warriors have ever faced.