General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - January, 2018

[raketmannen]

5dimes

Romero -145
Rockhold +115

Khabib -215
Tony +170

Much sharper lines than I was expecting. Budden must’ve started working for 5dimes

No way I’m paying -215 for khabib 3 months out.

I'm waiting for +200-250 Tony, Khabib hype is real

I bet 3u on Khabib -163 too get even better dog odds when switching to Tony when all the Khabib parlays have been made

 

[EzFlyer]

Any Americans got lfa lines? Will probs get them quite late tomorrow in the UK

we never get them this early

 

[danareem]

I'm waiting for +200-250 Tony, Khabib hype is real

#metoo. Idk what Tony's gameplan will be, slice khabib up from the bottom? Khabib s takedown game and cardio seems unstoppable so I take it for granted Ferguson will be on his back for a long time in this fight

 

[mkess101]

Kinda suprised to only see Khabib as a -160 favorite against Tony. Was expecting around -250

The last fight Khabib was down to like -130ish before missing weight. To be fair that line bounced all over the place. I kinda agree that I think this time the line is gonna move more toward Khabib. There's the recency bias of how badly he wrecked Barbosa, and the fact that Lee had some success putting Ferg on his back early in their fight before Ferg's pressure and pace broke him in the middle of that fight.

Ferg will be far more active off his back than anyone Khabib has faced, that much is a given. His cardio won't let him down, so he's less likely than anyone Khabib has faced to mentally break having to fight off his back. He also is as good as anyone at snagging the front headlock into his snapdown when he's shot on, but Khabib more relies on chain wrestling and kind of dragging his opponent down near the fence than he does hitting power doubles or shooting from distance.

I still like Ferg in this spot, but I'm less confident than I was leading up to their last fight. I'm with you in that I'm gonna wait for a better spot to hit Ferg. Might not get +200, but I think we'll get better odds than what they are now.

 

[raketmannen]

The last fight Khabib was down to like -130ish before missing weight. To be fair that line bounced all over the place. I kinda agree that I think this time the line is gonna move more toward Khabib. There's the recency bias of how badly he wrecked Barbosa, and the fact that Lee had some success putting Ferg on his back early in their fight before Ferg's pressure and pace broke him in the middle of that fight.

Ferg will be far more active off his back than anyone Khabib has faced, that much is a given. His cardio won't let him down, so he's less likely than anyone Khabib has faced to mentally break having to fight off his back. He also is as good as anyone at snagging the front headlock into his snapdown when he's shot on, but Khabib more relies on chain wrestling and kind of dragging his opponent down near the fence than he does hitting power doubles or shooting from distance.

I still like Ferg in this spot, but I'm less confident than I was leading up to their last fight. I'm with you in that I'm gonna wait for a better spot to hit Ferg. Might not get +200, but I think we'll get better odds than what they are now.

I agree with exactly everything you said, I think over +200 is possible though, the fact that Kevin Lee mounted Ferg and managed too land gnp will be brought up so many times

 

[mkess101]

I agree with exactly everything you said, I think over +200 is possible though, the fact that Kevin Lee mounted Ferg and managed too land gnp will be brought up so many times

And it's a valid thing, honestly. Lee's grappling is pretty elite to be fair (at least when he's fresh), but it's not Khabib's level.

Ferg is insanely durable, and his cardio is literally as good as their is in the sport (maybe the history of the sport). His activity level INCREASES as fights go on. And getting tired is one of the reasons guys break under Khabib's constant grappling pressure and gnp. Ferg won't get tired.

The questions are: Can Ferg do some damage standing before he's taken down? Can he do some damage off his back once he's put there? Can he make Khabib defend subs--at least at times--when he's on his back? As the fight wears on, can he start to avoid being taken down as Khabib possibly slows (Khabib's cardio looks good when he's purely the hammer for 3 rounds, but what about when he's in a dogfight against a guy with even better cardio than he has)?

 

[vkram]

And it's a valid thing, honestly. Lee's grappling is pretty elite to be fair (at least when he's fresh), but it's not Khabib's level.

Ferg is insanely durable, and his cardio is literally as good as their is in the sport (maybe the history of the sport). His activity level INCREASES as fights go on. And getting tired is one of the reasons guys break under Khabib's constant grappling pressure and gnp. Ferg won't get tired.

The questions are: Can Ferg do some damage standing before he's taken down? Can he do some damage off his back once he's put there? Can he make Khabib defend subs--at least at times--when he's on his back? As the fight wears on, can he start to avoid being taken down as Khabib possibly slows (Khabib's cardio looks good when he's purely the hammer for 3 rounds, but what about when he's in a dogfight against a guy with even better cardio than he has)?

I think Ferg's TDD isn't the best and him being comfortable on his back might be his downfall here. Plus Khabib doesn't really tend to stay in full guard that much. Obviously Ferguson can still snatch a sub but I have to favour Khabib's ground game.

 

[northsofia]

You are forgetting the fact that Lee is bigger than Khabib, getting out of the Ferguson`s guard will not be and easy task for the russian. Tony`s ground game is sooo slick with his long limbs (6 inches reach advantage for Tony). Ferguson`s sub line will be very interesting.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

You are forgetting the fact that Lee is bigger than Khabib

I was going to ask about this. In fight week I remember Lee saying he weighed around 180 for the Ferg fight and its probably only a rumor but I remember hearing Khabib usually blows up to like 190. #fakenews?

 

[northsofia]

I was going to ask about this. In fight week I remember Lee saying he weighed around 180 for the Ferg fight and its probably only a rumor but I remember hearing Khabib usually blows up to like 190. #fakenews?

I am not sure about the weight, but Lee has 7 inch more of reach advantage than Khabib...

 

[mkess101]

I think Ferg's TDD isn't the best and him being comfortable on his back might be his downfall here. Plus Khabib doesn't really tend to stay in full guard that much. Obviously Ferguson can still snatch a sub but I have to favour Khabib's ground game.

I tend to agree...for 3 rounds anyway. That I can remember, Khabib really hasn't fought anyone with an elite, aggressive game off their back. RDA is a great grappled, but is really only special with top position. He's good defensively off his back, but doesn't threaten much. Ferg will be a different type of challenge in that regard.

 

[mkess101]

I am not sure about the weight, but Lee has 7 inch more of reach advantage than Khabib...

True. I think Lee and Ferg have the 2 longest reaches in the division.

 

[mkess101]

I was going to ask about this. In fight week I remember Lee saying he weighed around 180 for the Ferg fight and its probably only a rumor but I remember hearing Khabib usually blows up to like 190. #fakenews?

If true would explain the weight misses.

 

[danareem]

Ferguson +210 fastbet

 

[Yotsuya]

Romero 1.81 at Pinnacle. Good enough for me.

 

[BatBoyJG]

T-Ferg’s bottom game is overrated in how much it will trouble Khabib. Khabib does not stay in guard like how Lee does. Ferg can give Khabib trouble if he locks him down & is able to throw those elbows & bust him up from bottom. I don’t think he will have the chance to do that in the first two rounds.

Lee has elite strength for the division, but I feel like he proved my thought that Ferg is not very strong in positions. He’s much like me when using BJJ. Very scramble heavy, create chaos on the ground & then capitalize. In isometric positions I think he struggles. He knows this which is why he bends and gives up position to allow a scramble instead of trying to hold & push back. In contrast Khabib is one of the best in those isometric positions where he’s holding you
in place, & closing off holes.

Because of this I really like Khabib here. -200 is rich but I think it’s as low as it will get. The fight gets interesting after the 2nd round where if Tony isn’t broken yet he might be able to get into the fight.

 

[mkess101]

T-Ferg’s bottom game is overrated in how much it will trouble Khabib. Khabib does not stay in guard like how Lee does. Ferg can give Khabib trouble if he locks him down & is able to throw those elbows & bust him up from bottom. I don’t think he will have the chance to do that in the first two rounds.

Lee has elite strength for the division, but I feel like he proved my thought that Ferg is not very strong in positions. He’s much like me when using BJJ. Very scramble heavy, create chaos on the ground & then capitalize. In isometric positions I think he struggles. He knows this which is why he bends and gives up position to allow a scramble instead of trying to hold & push back. In contrast Khabib is one of the best in those isometric positions where he’s holding you
in place, & closing off holes.

Because of this I really like Khabib here. -200 is rich but I think it’s as low as it will get. The fight gets interesting after the 2nd round where if Tony isn’t broken yet he might be able to get into the fight.

I could be wrong, but I don't think you can break Ferg. He's a terminator. But I totally agree with your overall assessment. Ferg most likely struggles the first 2 rounds. What he needs to make sure he does is to make Khabib work for whatever he gets. It can be a fine line between an active guard and a reckless one where you are giving up position too easily. Ferg trusts his durability and cardio and scrambling ability so much that he tends toward reckless. That may make it too easy on Khabib to advance position and control Ferg. Ferg's goal should be not to care about winning either of the first two rounds, but about making Khabib work his ass off for everything he gets. Then, like you said, the fight very likely starts to look much different.

 

[Yotsuya]

I agree with exactly everything you said, I think over +200 is possible though, the fact that Kevin Lee mounted Ferg and managed too land gnp will be brought up so many times

Didn't take long: +206 at Pinny. Took only 0.5u hoping for another bump. Almost fell for +190 btw.

 

[mkess101]

To add^^^^

There could potentially be some VERY juicy live odds on Ferg after RD 2. That is one thing I'll be waiting on.

 

[mkess101]

Didn't take long: +206 at Pinny. Took only 0.5u hoping for another bump. Almost fell for +190 btw.

5d still +170.

Waiting...