thoughts on the tate/holm line ufc 197?
I already got tate to have the belt in 2016 at +1000,11.0 (currently at +400, 5.0)
the goat-rda line on the same card will be interesting to follow, who knows how that line will move
I think rda is such a beast and been waiting for the goat train to derail but starting to be a beliver
With Tate - Holm confirmed, that +1000 is an amazing line. I actually still do like +400 as I believe it's a better price than we'll get on Tate's ML when it comes out.
After derailing Rousey in her flawless performance, Holly is surely going to be a large favorite and deservedly so. But I personally don't buy that she was "holding back" to hide her skills from Ronda in her UFC contender run - and against opponents that doesn't keep running into her punches she's not going to look as good. I think Tate is a much harder fight for her, she has legitimate wrestling game which I believe Holly has had a bit of problems with against lesser opponents. Most importantly, while it certainly could be improved a lot, Tate's stand-up game that is not all bull-rushing. I trust her to come in with a gameplan that works on paper instead of thinking she's the best boxer in the world and that she could KO Holm with a hand tied behind her back
I think the line should be somewhere around Holm -335 Tate +275 - though I wouldn't be surprised if Holly opened or got bet as a slightly bigger favorite.
Put a small bet on the +400 line, thanks for pointing it out.
I'm in the exact same line of thinking when it comes to RDA/McGregor.
After seeing RDA's stellar ability to come in with a gameplan and never deviating from it (vs. Pettis), considering the fact that Conor is now figthing in his more natural weight class and taking into account the large wrestling/grappling advantage RDA is going to enjoy. Everything logical is telling me that RDA @ even money has huge value. But McGregor is such a wildcard, after doing what he said he would to Jose I have a very hard time betting against him even if it looks to be the correct play.
I'm thinking (and hoping) that RDA becomes a sizable underdog before the fight takes place (+150'ish) and then I'll have to put some down, but right now it's not happening. If anything I'll put down a bet on McGregor @ evens as I expect the lines to shift in his favor once the hype-train revs up.