Cage Warriors 137 & 138

PuertoRican

PuertoRican

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I don't know anything about any of these fighters, but we have two MMA cards back-to-back this week that we can bet on, and there has to be some value out there.

I'm going to look into one fight first (I'll make a follow-up post when I know which fight I choose to look into). If we all take one fight each, we can break down these cards fast and make some money this week.
 
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I'm going to tape Tanasa when I get chance. Pedersen is terrible.
 
Also I haven't seen Aliu but if he has good TDD then he's worth a look as all Webb does is spam takedowns, works well when he gets them, he really struggles when he can't.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Also I haven't seen Aliu but if he has good TDD then he's worth a look as all Webb does is spam takedowns, works well when he gets them, he really struggles when he can't.
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I ended up paying for Alius fight in Brave, he lost the fight by getting taken down and held down for 3 rounds. Although that opponent is a much much better wrestler than Webb. I am also contemplating hitting the dog here
 
I added Webb to a 3-team parlay, but it's not something I'm recommending. Webb should be bigger and is fighting in his hometown. I also don't like how slow Aliu moves when compared to Webb.

CW 137 is full of guys who are massive favorites and several guys on that card haven't fought in awhile.

Focusing on CW 138.
 
Has anyone taped Oban vs Herkus ? Herkus seems to have some decent striking but not much tape on his fights, I think if he can stuff the takedown he should be able to win. Havent seen many Oban fights but he seems pretty average, line seems a bit wide
 
Just a friendly reminder to reduce your unit size for stuff like this.

maybe I’ll do one of these today. I need assigned homework though. Someone needs to delegate
 
I love u1.5 for Cullen fight I'd be surprised if this went past the first round
 
unfortunately i didn't take u1.5 cullen at -140 when i saw it and it's now -220....
 
So I’m taping the main for 137

line is wide. I get that kouadja is bad on the ground but he has a sprawl and good power, speed and athleticism

from the limited tape available, he takes a lot of risks on the ground and overall looks pretty uncomfortable and green. He will force subs and lose position. Bonner will likely tool him if he gets him down. Kouadja hasn’t faced anyone with grappling near the level of Bonner

that being said i wouldn’t be surprised at all if Bonner gets sparked in the first. After that I think cardio will be an issue for kouadja. I don’t think Bonner is going to want to play around on the feet. He has to figure out how to get inside. He should probably look to get a body lock while kouadja is throwing his wild hooks

Watched a Maui thai fight with him vs gane from back in 2015. First round was competitive but Kouadja seemed to gas after one and gane finished him with a knee to the body

under 1.5 small
 
Josh Reed is an all-action fighter who is a good hammer, but terrible nail. He uses his size advantage in most fights, win or lose, and he is there to be hit on the feet at all times. Seems weak when he is pushed/held against the cage. He uses good knees against short opponents who stay in mid-range and/or attempt to close the distance against him.

Some of his fights:

vs. Hazan
vs. Creighton
vs. Gittins
vs. De Paepe

Luke Shanks usually fights at 125, but is fighting at 135 for his second fight in a row. Aggressive fighter who looks for the take down, and will wrap up your legs with his legs like Khabib, and focuses on various arm chokes. When standing, he has good leg kicks that are fast and hard, and seems to be upgrading his boxing, with his best punch being counter straights and counter hooks. He is used to fighting 5-round fights, so cardio isn't an issue for him in 3-round fights. He's from Wellingborough, which is a 2 hour drive away from Colechester, the city where this Cage Warriors card is being held, and he's facing a guy from a different country. Shanks will be the shorter guy here, but he's used to being the shorter fighter.

Some of his fights:

vs. Hignett
vs. Geropoulis
vs. Jenkins
vs. Leblond

I think Shanks will strike just enough to back Reed against the cage, then wrap up his legs and get a take down, followed by tying up his legs Khabib-style, and then working from there. I'm not confident in a finish, but Shanks should win this via grappling as long as he doesn't stand and bang for too long or eat a knee when he's coming in.

Pick: Luke Shanks -210
 
Jack Dedames +347 $10 for $34.70
Benoit Blanc +211 $10 for $21.10
Michelangelo Lupoli +100 $15 for $15

Parlay: Adam Cullen + Luke Shanks $148 for $100.39
Parlay: Matthew Bonner + Adam Cullen + James Webb $50 for $50.85
 
The first fight for Cage Warriors 137 starts at 1pm PST / 4pm EST on Friday.

Send me a ticket whenever you find one. I'll have to watch from work, and I don't have my list of tickets that I use on my home computer.
 
So I think I like the under 2.5 in the yousef/folk fight. Folc is a bit of a bum and yousef has some dangerous Muai Thai. Folc is likely going to go all out for the double leg for the entirety of fight and could end up in some nasty clinch positions with yousef who throws hellacious elbows and knees

yousef coming off his first loss where he got wall and stalled by a stronger better wrestler than folk.

folc is coming off a fight where he probably should’ve been finished. He was hurt badly by a well timed head kick on a double leg as tempt after being hurt by a leg kick. He was all kinds of rocked, gave up his back and looked like he was going to get choked out but his opponent inexplicably let him get right up from a body triangle.

it was really strange. Folc wasn’t even trying to fight the hands and his opponent had a half hearted neck crank that he easily could’ve locked in and ended up under the chin. But instead the guy just opened up his body triangle and let him get up.

Yousef has decent takedown defense and isn’t lost on the ground. He doesn’t accept bottom position and if he does end up sweeping he has nasty ground and pound throwing almost exclusively elbows that often cut their opponents.

No way should he be -900, especially coming off a loss to a guy who wanted to grapple with him the whole match like folc will do.

I just don’t see folc having the same success and yousef nearly won that fight anyway. It was a split that could’ve went to either guy. Yousef was hurting him every time they exchanged.
 
The ticket at Crack isn't working. Lunch ends soon at work, so I'll follow the updates.
 
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