Bellator 206 Mousasi vs MacDonald

raketmannen said:
Lines out for the maincard. Pico hypetrain continues, got in 1.9u at -200 on a eu book earlier but didn't expect him to be this juiced on the US openers
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I maxed him at -200 for €500 :)
 
How do people cap the actual EV of Higo/Pico? It's one of the more interesting Bellator matchups in a while.
 
Opening Odds:
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Current Odds:
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1u on Wanderlei +245 against Fatpage. At least Wanderlei still fights angry.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
How do people cap the actual EV of Higo/Pico? It's one of the more interesting Bellator matchups in a while.
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I honestly think Pico should be -180ish (what he opened up as in non-US books). Pico has a lot of great raw skills and will be very good in a few years assuming he does not take too much damage. I followed him during his freestyle wrestling career until he lost in the olympic trial finals. He is a great wrestler, but he seems to be strike first type of guy and he did not wrestle in college so I doubt his top control skills are that great (in college wrestling there are incentives in the form of "riding time" to hold opponents down where it is not as emphasized in freestyle wrestling) but they are still probably good.

That being said I think this will be a striking contest and even though Pico seems to have great offensive weapons and raw power and awesome body shots, he seems to be super hittable. Freeman clipped him with an uppercut and even Justin Linn was tagging him at times. Higo is super technical, is hard to hit clean and has good uppercuts, leg kicks, and a wide variety of strikes. I think he could easily land some CLEAN counters on Pico. We have seen Higo composed throughout a 3 round striking affair vs Dantas. We have not seen Pico in a long bout as he hunts for finishes immediately. I think if Pico does not get Higo out of there early, I would trust Higo's striking defense much more than Pico's at this point in their career.

I still favor Pico because of the aggression, raw power, and possible wrestling path (even though I expect him to mostly strike) but betting Pico over anything at -200 seems a bit risky.
 
Took 1u on Douglas Lima at +110 over Andrey Koreshkov as well. If Lima stays on the feet his leg kicks will add up and he can hold his own against Koreshkov's hands.
 
JimGunn said:
1u on Wanderlei +245 against Fatpage. At least Wanderlei still fights angry.
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I managed to get +245 as well, I put $200 on it. I think this is basically a coin flip of a fight, and I can get the guy who still actually trains hard mentally and physically and already has a 2-1 edge in their series? I'll take that.
 
We just saw Little Nog pull off a +1620 KO. Maybe Pride really will never die? :eek: Again, I'll take that +245 on Wandy against a seemingly disinterested Rampage.
 
Serious question, doesn't Bellator have much more lax testing protocols than the UFC? Meaning that we could potentially see Silva jacked up on something which makes his chances even more favorable, especially to someone who isn't training properly period... :confused: The guy ran away from testing the last time he was supposed to fight, so why wouldn't he go back to what he's been doing?
 
LiquidNuke said:
Serious question, doesn't Bellator have much more lax testing protocols than the UFC? Meaning that we could potentially see Silva jacked up on something which makes his chances even more favorable, especially to someone who isn't training properly period... :confused: The guy ran away from testing the last time he was supposed to fight, so why wouldn't he go back to what he's been doing?
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Both guys are old and slow and Wandy will probably be roided. Someone will most likely get finished and I trust Rampage's chin more. I am not playing this fight, but I think Rampage is the rightful favorite. He has not been Koed since shogun in 2005 which is just absurd to think about.
 
Lightbringer said:
Both guys are old and slow and Wandy will probably be roided. Someone will most likely get finished and I trust Rampage's chin more. I am not playing this fight, but I think Rampage is the rightful favorite. He has not been Koed since shogun in 2005 which is just absurd to think about.
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Of course Rampage has an iron chin, no one has ever denied that. But these guys have fought three times already, and even though Wandy was in trouble on the bottom in both of the first two bouts he regained his footing to finish both bouts... the second finish started when he hurt a wild Rampage with a right hand, and then finished with a knee that left him completely unconscious. Point is, Wandy has shown the hands and knees needed to rattle Rampage, regardless of that fantastic chin.

If Rampage weighs 250 something pounds for this, mark my words, he's dead meat after the first round. He needs to find Wandy's chin early or he's likely in deep shit. Chael Soennen was comfortably out striking the blown out and out of shape Rampage last time out.

Being in shape and mentally ready is like three quarters the battle in MMA. I'll take an inactive guy who's known to train like a demon who's coming back over a guy who's been active but is overweight and lazy.
 
LiquidNuke said:
We just saw Little Nog pull off a +1620 KO. Maybe Pride really will never die? :eek: Again, I'll take that +245 on Wandy against a seemingly disinterested Rampage.
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Rampage hates Wanderlei so I think he made a good camp
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Rampage hates Wanderlei so I think he made a good camp
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And it's finally the standup fight that he has been asking for in Bellator after all those "leg humpers". Rampage is also much bigger and has a much better frame for HW and Wanderlei only fought once in the last 5 years and looked like shit. Not that Rampage looked good lately, but at least he has been active and I think he is the rightful favourite here and will knock Wanderlei out.

To be honest I also bet Rampage against Sonnen and was very confident back then, so if he let's me down again, this will be the last time I put money on him, but I think Rampage by 1st or 2nd round KO. Took him @1,45 and I think that's a fair price.
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Karmello said:
And it's finally the standup fight that he has been asking for in Bellator after all those "leg humpers". Rampage is also much bigger and has a much better frame for HW and Wanderlei only fought once in the last 5 years and looked like shit. Not that Rampage looked good lately, but at least he has been active and I think he is the rightful favourite here and will knock Wanderlei out.

To be honest I also bet Rampage against Sonnen and was very confident back then, so if he let's me down again, this will be the last time I put money on him, but I think Rampage by 1st or 2nd round KO. Took him @1,45 and I think that's a fair price.
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I trust rampage chin more too
 
Im taking Wand as well at those odds think he trains harder at this point. Rampage is washed up, big, fat and lazy I don't trust him at all anymore.
 
I'm on the wandy bandwagon too. Fatpage is just collecting paychecks now. He can definitely ko wand, but those odds are cool. Have him in a parlay with bolanos and keri. played Lima straight and a small bet on rory. I think he can outwork gegard and make it ugly, just like he did vs lima. He's a very strong grappler and probably more technical than moose in that aspect. His win over maia was great. hope he doesn't eat a hundred jabs. That nose isn't the same after the lawler fight.
 
What weight class is wand/page at? I trust Wanda chin a lot more when he doesn’t cut weight. They are both old and have no business fighting anymore, but it seems wand has kept his fighting spirit and rampage just doesn’t care. I will take wand and dog odds and live with my fighter getting kod then betting a juiced favorite and have him just not care.
 
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