Bellator 192 - Lima vs MacDonald - Inglewood, CA

Oblivian said:
Tito wasn't Chael's last fight bro. He cruised to a very easy decision win over Wandy. I'm not crazy to play Chael here unless that decision line would be accurate, but depending on Rampage as a favorite for a heavy play at this stage is asking for trouble. There are definitely red flags there. He struggled with a grappler in Ishii, recently struggled Mo's wrestling, and has shown a tendency to be content against the cage. Not saying there aren't a ton of red flags with Chael too, but that's the point. It's a big gamble either way in this fight.
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That's right, my bad. Forgot about his win vs ghost of Wand. Doesn't change my mind or my play, but it is relevant for sure.
 
Oblivian said:
Tito wasn't Chael's last fight bro. He cruised to a very easy decision win over Wandy. I'm not crazy to play Chael here unless that decision line would be accurate, but depending on Rampage as a favorite for a heavy play at this stage is asking for trouble. There are definitely red flags there. He struggled with a grappler in Ishii, recently struggled Mo's wrestling, and has shown a tendency to be content against the cage. Not saying there aren't a ton of red flags with Chael too, but that's the point. It's a big gamble either way in this fight.
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If 5d fixes their props to reflect 3 rounds we can hedge a bit on Chael Dec if we get cold feet later today. Chael isn't finishing Rampage.
 
mkess101 said:
If 5d fixes their props to reflect 3 rounds we can hedge a bit on Chael Dec if we get cold feet later today. Chael isn't finishing Rampage.
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chael dec is around 3.75-4.25 at euro books. much better than his ML, i may even hedge that if i get my page bets matched
 
mkess101 said:
If 5d fixes their props to reflect 3 rounds we can hedge a bit on Chael Dec if we get cold feet later today. Chael isn't finishing Rampage.
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I think most people playing Rampage think Chael has very little to almost zero chance of finishing rampage. His decision line is at +345, so my guess is that most playing Rampage would also see value in Chael decision as I hope they aren't capping Rampage above -325. I'm really wondering about the 5dimes line though since they appear to give Sonnen a better chance of finishing vs a decision. I'm thinking the lines are truly based off of 5 rounds.
 
Oblivian said:
I think most people playing Rampage think Chael has very little to almost zero chance of finishing rampage. His decision line is at +345, so my guess is that most playing Rampage would also see value in Chael decision as I hope they aren't capping Rampage above -325. I'm really wondering about the 5dimes line though since they appear to give Sonnen a better chance of finishing vs a decision. I'm thinking the lines are truly based off of 5 rounds.
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Yeah 5d also says it's a FW fight LOL. Guess just have to wait and see if they fix it. Thing that sucks is that we are going out with friends for a bit so I won't be checking it. I'll be home well before Chael/Rampage starts, but the line could move and I might miss out on odds I want. Oh well.
 
waited all fucking week for yamauchi NSC and lima NSC

TWENTY DOLLAR LIMIT

fuck this man
 
Goiti Yamauchi @3.40 (0,5un)
Rampage Jackson @1.53 (1,75un)
Rory + Cormier ITD @2.38 (1un)
 
Bella 192 Risk: 1,093.25
rampage -178: 266.25 for 150 / chael
lima +204: 170 for 346.50 / lima NSC: 80 for 126 / macdonald
yamauchi +273: 150 for 408.75 / yamauchi NSC: 150 for 293.70 / chandler
pico-kruchten U1.5: 89.50 for 75
corrales-karakhanyan O2.5: 207.50 for 100
---

wanted to have a bunch more on lima and goiti NSC plays, but bookie won't let me.
 
last minute bet on corrales, can't back it up, just think two guys going in diff directions like jim said. tailing jae, too.
 
you could argue goergi rd 3, corrales didn't do much, but this would be a really bad decision if they gave it to georgi
 
omfg. kruchten is SO SKINNY

pico is gonna break him in half. doing more on U1.5
 
omg, yep, body shot broke the stick figure in half

i should've bet a grand on that under
 
Hard Rock sportsbook in Las Vegas has only two small screens out of twenty total showing the UFC tv prelims and none at all showing Bellator. Puts the sport of MMA in perspective.
 
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