2017 Recap & Analytics

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 31, 2017.

  1. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    I'll make a big post myself at some point in the next couple days

    this is a free-for-all, judgment-free zone of talking about successes, failures

    maybe it will help people make improvements or help others with things that work for you, etc.

    It will also help you understand your own successes and failures if you take the time and have the information.

    so yea, go nuts.

    2016 year end thread: http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/2016-recap-analytics.3438971/
     
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  2. Papi Blue Belt

    Papi
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    2017 is my first year betting mma. Been a crazy year!!! Ive learned so much and i keep learning!! My biggest regret is i went 15u on chandler to beat primus that one still hurts. Never laying juice like that again regardless of how confident i am..i think my biggest up was i was on tilt on the mark hunt vs black beast fight and i had a few too many beers with my buddies. And i went almost 20u on mark hunt ml at +140 it was dumb it retrospect but man it made the fight so exciting lol..good memories overall im up close to 35u for the year. I know thats not impressive for a lot of the guys around here. But for my first year betting ill take it. Fun year overall. Happy new years guys lets kill it in 2018!!!

    Edit: also a very low point for me for a different reason was the gavin tucker vs glenn i thought i had such a good read for that fight. I was on tucker for 5u and for him to get dominated the way he did it made me question everything i knew about the sport lol
     
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    Last edited: Dec 31, 2017
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  3. Gugabe Orange Belt

    Gugabe
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    107.13u profit on my tips in the last 8~ months, or atleast since Gus-Glover. I think I've been doing pretty well for myself, but do tend to lean on underdogs and finish-props that can be punishing when cards become decision-fests. Not the best way to end the year, but these things do happen in MMA. I've managed to average about +2.53u a card since starting to sell tips, with a record of 2-3 but I think that I can maintain a 10-15% ROI into the future.
     
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  4. Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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    Im done with betting, I dont know what happened... to many loses, didnt won since september. I have to take a break.
     
    #4
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  5. Rapidryan88 Green Belt

    Rapidryan88
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    Forget the big parlays bro, do singles doubles and trebles. Much easier.
     
    #5
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  6. Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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    Even my trebles got fucked up, I dont know man... Im done I think
    Its sad because I thought I got knowledge about this sport but Im nothing special at all
     
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  7. Rapidryan88 Green Belt

    Rapidryan88
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    Dw bud just learn from it. Take a different approach maybe, some dogs you’re very keen on in your parlays that don’t justify the confidence imo like you should never have parlayed holm.
    Don’t worry take some time off come back with a cool head brother
     
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  8. Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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    Happy new year my friend !
     
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  9. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    The key to this game is bankroll management, man.. finding a long term strategy that works.. be adaptable and don't get cocky on picks

    Taking a break (or stopping altogether) are always an option. It's a mature option in lots of cases. But if you love this sport and can stay objective, there is money to be made. It takes time to figure it all out
     
    #9
  10. Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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    The problem with me is that I want to make most money, but only big parlays can give it to me ( Rebellion style)
     
    #10
  11. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    It's a marathon, not a Sprint. I'm sure rebel has made a lot, but remember he has tons of losing events, too. It's not easy to hit monster parlays, lol
     
    #11
  12. Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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    I have to rethink this shit I mean... I lost sooooo many times, there were situations that only one fight on 7 didnt hit ( fuck you brooks) damn.. thanks for your kind words. 2 weeks pause will do fine.
     
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  13. RuthlessRich Ghost

    RuthlessRich
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    Hey I think you have good knowledge on fights just do more single bets and less parlays
     
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  14. pytycrys Blue Belt

    pytycrys
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    First year of betting MMA and it's been very kind to me.

    I started with a bankroll of a broke Romanian student in the UK - 500£ and a unit of 5£.
    My unit grew up to 10£ after a few months and now I have concluded the year with a profit of 2002£ from boxing and MMA. That not a lot for some of you guys, but it's a couple of nice holidays for me.
    I will continue 2018 with a unit of 10£ for MMA and 20£ for Boxing. Boxing still seems more consistent, I need to follow others more in the MMA department. But that's just fine, we're all here to make money, aren't we?

    Have a happy new year!
     
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  15. Wiktoruspro Blue Belt

    Wiktoruspro
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    I wont make much money on singles, on the other side I wont risk for example 300$ to bet a 3.00 underdog to make 1k thats why I tried to make nice parlays but shit doesnt worked good for me
     
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  16. RuthlessRich Ghost

    RuthlessRich
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    Yeah I am on a losing streak with this card and going big on lawler last event. Was doing pretty good up until then. For me I need to pull the trigger heavy on bets im really confident in such as Gasteuleum ITD vs Bisping. Also I get in a habit of betting stupid bets after im on a losing streak just cause I want to recoup losses which causes even more Ls. 2017 was a learning year, definitely down but looking to bounce back in 2018. This community has great knowledge on MMA, Boxing, and Kickboxing. Made some good bets tailing people on fighters such as Makdessi vs Abel.
     
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  17. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

    BatBoyJG
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    Great year, I made some way too large bets when hammered a few times (Lawlet, Shevchenko, Gaethje vs Eddie) in the live bet department. If I hadn’t made those I’d be up another 15-20u it was really bad haha. Good thing is though I had it, and losing didn’t effect me too bad (Shevchenko won that fight though)

    I’d love to be discipline with keeping track of bets on a spread sheet but I flake on that. Did that the first 2 months and then nada.

    Though I did start third party tracking my bets this year and did great. Did 33 events in total (skipped a few or didn’t use it for a few) and ended with 60u in profit. That’s almost all with straight plays as well (50.22u) hitting dogs heavily with an avg odds played of +129 hitting at a 49% clip so beating the market by quite a bit.

    I’m pretty good, I know I am. I need to not get lazy at times with inspecting every fight during busy times or when I am not as excited. Had I done so I would have also hit on Carla and Magny last night pre fight opposed to the live bets that I hit for them instead.

    Probably looking to start putting out some content next year & honestly if someone is looking to collaborate hit me up. Really something that I always wanted to do... going to make it happen.

    Cheers!
     
    #17
  18. Rapidryan88 Green Belt

    Rapidryan88
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    Been a great year for me betting wise, this forum has helped A LOT. People like budden,EZ, jim, Crowe (boxing) have helped so much as well as MANY others. I’m not some amazing capper that doesn’t need help from no one, I tail what I think is good and I’m very appreciative of what everyone posts here :)

    My own picks have surprisingly been great this year but I need to focus on not letting the chat here change my mind too much as well as upping my percentage of correct picks on pick ems because that’s not my strong point, I need to stay confident in what I believe will win because I’ve been a bit too easily swayed this year.

    In the new year I want to do more in plays because they’re soooo profitable for me on Bet365 but being up till 5 am every weekend is very hard!
    This years been extremely profitable for me and helped me pay for a LOT of stuff so let’s hope we have more of the same next year!

    Have a good night guys :)
     
    #18
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  19. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    2017 Recap

    Total Units: +186.59 (689 fights)

    event summary:

    LFA 1: +100
    Invicta 21: +308.50
    UFN 103: +18
    LFA 2: -185
    Bella 170: +479.45
    Titan 43: +149.50
    Bella 171: -105
    UFC FOX 23: -540.96
    UFN 104: -601.98
    UFC 208: -413.97
    LFA 4: +94
    Bella 172: +295
    UFN 105: +1,412.36
    LFA 5: +225
    Bella 173: +102
    Bella 174: -200
    UFC 209: +409.81
    UFN 106: +1,521.58
    UFN 107: +1,051.81
    WSOF 35: -462.50
    invicta 22: -2.57
    Bella 175: -107.86
    Bella 176: +325
    UFC 210: +35.49
    Bella 177: +352
    UFC Fox 24: -740.23
    Rizin 5: +140
    LFA 10: -20
    Bella 178: +263.75
    UFN 108: +2,602.44
    CES 44: +70
    UFC 211: +1,464.96
    Bella 179: -153.50
    Titan 44: +50
    Invicta 23: +89.50
    KSW 39: 0
    UFN 109: +1,376.41
    UFC 212: -672.76 <----- summer slump hit again
    UFN 110: -1,243.94
    UFN 111: -805.78
    Bella 180: +509.67
    UFN 112: -856.70
    LFA 15: -47.52 <----- summer slump ended (net of -3,117.03)
    PFL 1: +351.48
    TUF 25: -88.84
    UFC 213: +176.14
    DW1: +340
    bella 181: +265.20
    invicta 24: +92.50
    ufn 113: +1,122.83
    DW2: +248.01
    UFC Fox 25: +1,808.50
    DW3: +51.39
    PFL 2: +2
    UFC 214: +1,792.65
    Rizin 6: -20
    DW4: +113.50
    LFA 18: -95.50
    UFN 114: -1,105.65
    DW 5: -125.90
    DW 6: +466.32
    Titan 45: -60
    LFA 19: -205
    DW 7: +469.94
    Bella 182: +688.75
    LFA 20: +102.50
    DW 8: +350.75
    Invicta 25: -63.75
    UFN 115: +312.60
    LFA 22: +237.50,
    UFC 215: -169.46
    UFN 116: -609.57
    UFN 117: +97.95
    LFA 23: -70
    ACB 70: +99
    Bella 183: +490.08
    Bella 184: +118.34
    UFC 216: +78.02
    LFA 24: -92
    Bella 185: -224
    LFA 25: -70
    UFN 118: +548.08
    UFN 119: +619.06
    PFL 3: -357.50
    Bella 186: -304.60
    UFC 217: +3,242.15 <----- best event of 2017
    Bella 187: -50
    UFN 120: +455.75
    Bella 188: +90
    Titan 46: +115
    UFN 121: -2,108.75 <----- worst event of 2017 (man i get killed on aussie cards)
    UFN 122: -561.84
    Bella 189: -333
    TUF 26: +1,009.84
    UFC 218: +870.23
    Invicta 26: +347.50
    Bella 190: +194.50
    UFN 123: +428.23
    Bella 191: +78
    UFC Fox 26: +382.65
    Rizin 8: -31.67
    UFC 219: +863.35

    -------------

    By Promotion:
    UFC: +150.94 units (525 fights)
    Bellator: +27.94 units (87 fights)
    Japanese MMA (Rizin): +0.88 units (5 fights)
    Invicta: +7.72 units (21 fights)
    WSOF/PFL: -4.67 units (16 fights)
    Titan: +2.55 units (7 fights)
    Others: +1.23 units (28 fights)

    -------------

    By Price of the Fighter (this is a somewhat gray area, because if I bet on a -600 fighter but do it as "gaethje ITD -186" it counts for me as a bet on a fight with a -600 fighter, so to speak. grey area #2: my longshot event props fall under +401 and up dog slot

    FAVORITES: +91.62 units (269 fights)
    UNDERDOGS: +94.97 units (420 fights)

    ---
    -101 to -200 favorites: +52.35 units (157 fights)
    -201 to -400 favorites: +33.97 units (85 fights)
    -401 & up favorites: +5.31 units (27 fights)

    dogs up to +200: +93.09 units (232 fights)
    +201 to +400 dogs: +3.46 units (107 fights)
    +401 and up dogs: -1.58 units (81 fights)

    -------------

    By Weightclass (and event-wide):

    Women: ((( +62.91 units total )))
    145: +1.27 units
    135: +10.33 units
    125: +11.06 units
    115: +40.55 units
    105: -0.31 units

    men: ((( +127.09 units total )))
    265: +6.73 units
    205: +20.54 units
    185: +5.38 units
    170: +22.04 units
    155: +14.80 units
    145: +16.36 units
    135: +39.28 units
    125: +1.96 units

    ---

    event-wide props: ((( -3.40 units total )))

    FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: -0.90 units

    Fastest KO/SUB: -1.25 units

    OVER decisions: +0.37 units
    UNDER decisions: -0.40 units
    OVER KO/SUBS: +0.58 units
    UNDER KO/SUBS: -0.21 units

    Draws: -1.6 units

    -------------

    bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +145.64 units
    bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +40.96 units

    -------------

    the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

    huge losses (-5u or worse):
    7/22/17: -543.50: bermudez vs elkins
    2/20/17: -582.00: marshman vs santos <-- 9 seconds from profit, too
    11/11/17: -643.45: lauzon vs guida


    huge wins (+5.99u or better... too many wins of 4-5.98u to list)

    6/24/17: +599.00: douglas lima vs larkin
    4/22/17: +602.55: wineland vs dodson (via O2.5 and dodson dec)
    10/28/17: +641.00: munhoz vs font
    6/3/17: +648.50: holloway vs aldo
    8/22/17: +707.95: nzechukwu vs berzin <-- lol how'd i win so much here
    12/9/17: +719.50: saenz vs dvalishvili
    7/7/17: +721.00: gaethje vs johnson
    5/28/17: +797.90: velickovic vs musoke
    9/22/17: +885.05: andrade vs gadelha
    7/22/17: +897.50: zaleski vs good
    5/28/17: +916.70: akhmedov vs al hassan
    11/4/17: +1,224.27: dillashaw vs garbrandt
    4/22/17: +1,323.75: moreno vs ortiz
    11/4/17: +1,328.93: namajunas vs jedrzejczyk
    7/29/17: +1,445.48: ortega vs moicano
    2/20/17: +1,786.50: markos vs esparza

    -------------

    my key takeaways:
    -WOW. almost a 50/50 split on profits from favorites and dogs for me. 2016 was all about dogs. interesting.
    -event props continue to bleed some profit again this year
    -wmma got WAY better for me (largely cause of namajunas and andrade wins)

    2017: +187u
    2016: +113u
    2015: +175u
    2014: +125u
    2013: +115u
    2012: +137u
    2011: +97u
    2010: +94u


    i'm finally raising my units for the first time in a few years. long overdue, i know. 100/unit is now 150/unit.
     
    #19
  20. BatBoyJG Brown Belt

    BatBoyJG
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    Legend
     
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