- Joined
- Jul 20, 2021
- Messages
- 465
- Reaction score
- 595
My current bets::
Islam -150. This is a truly great fight. Islam/Khabib always have great game-planning. I believe they will be cautious in the early rounds. Strike to take down, and when grappling be very safe and positional. As Charles tires and we get sweaty later (harder to sub), will push it. In many ways, this fight is a test of exactly how good Islam is - which I agree is a little unknown compared to Charles. I think if he's nearly as good as it seems/Khabib says, there is value here. The line has now moved now and you can't get the price I got, and I price this one fairly at something like Islam -180/-190.
Also, want to add that I bet a lot on Charles vs Gaethje - I thought that was a crush bc Gaethje BJJ defense is awful and Charles probably sub him - so I'm not someone that's been fading Charles. I just think Islam & Charles are the best two at this weight, and Islam is better. But we will see.
Aljo -148, U4.5r +175. I think the community is underestimating Aljo & overestimating TJ (at this point in his career). Aljo subbed Sandhagen R1. Aljo beat Yan in their second fight. Yan beat Sandhagen clearly. Sandhagen IMO beat TJ and outstruck him (supposively TJ's massive strength), doing way more damage in that fight... to the point that TJ had to get a major surgery, which this is his first fight back from. TJ is 36 years old, coming off surgery. Aljo is in his prime, and at this point maybe the best in this division (IMO it is him and Yan). I think Aljo is more like -200 or better and I am looking to add to this bet. It's also part of the reason I like the under slightly at +175. I think Aljo is a threat to sub TJ at any point, and 4.5 rounds is a long time for someone to fade a knockout or serious injury. This one probably goes the distance, but I think small value at +175.
Fiorot -180. She's a beast & Chookagian is pillow-handed with zero threat to finish in this one IMO. Think this fight is to set up Fiorot for a title shot next, and she probably takes it.
Belal +125. I rate this as even-money, and like getting + on Belal. Sean Brady is very good, but barely beat Chiesa IMO which was his toughest test so far. Belal is much more tested and looked damn good vs Wonderboy and Luque in his last two fights. It's good for Brady this is only a 3 rounder, I think Belal is a favorite in a 5 rounder.
Now that the line is coming down I'm looking to bet Yan under -250 fwiw.
What you guys think? Who you guys got? Keeping it shorter for now, but if people reply with interesting comments I'll reply back... Lemme here some analysis Sherbros!
Islam -150. This is a truly great fight. Islam/Khabib always have great game-planning. I believe they will be cautious in the early rounds. Strike to take down, and when grappling be very safe and positional. As Charles tires and we get sweaty later (harder to sub), will push it. In many ways, this fight is a test of exactly how good Islam is - which I agree is a little unknown compared to Charles. I think if he's nearly as good as it seems/Khabib says, there is value here. The line has now moved now and you can't get the price I got, and I price this one fairly at something like Islam -180/-190.
Also, want to add that I bet a lot on Charles vs Gaethje - I thought that was a crush bc Gaethje BJJ defense is awful and Charles probably sub him - so I'm not someone that's been fading Charles. I just think Islam & Charles are the best two at this weight, and Islam is better. But we will see.
Aljo -148, U4.5r +175. I think the community is underestimating Aljo & overestimating TJ (at this point in his career). Aljo subbed Sandhagen R1. Aljo beat Yan in their second fight. Yan beat Sandhagen clearly. Sandhagen IMO beat TJ and outstruck him (supposively TJ's massive strength), doing way more damage in that fight... to the point that TJ had to get a major surgery, which this is his first fight back from. TJ is 36 years old, coming off surgery. Aljo is in his prime, and at this point maybe the best in this division (IMO it is him and Yan). I think Aljo is more like -200 or better and I am looking to add to this bet. It's also part of the reason I like the under slightly at +175. I think Aljo is a threat to sub TJ at any point, and 4.5 rounds is a long time for someone to fade a knockout or serious injury. This one probably goes the distance, but I think small value at +175.
Fiorot -180. She's a beast & Chookagian is pillow-handed with zero threat to finish in this one IMO. Think this fight is to set up Fiorot for a title shot next, and she probably takes it.
Belal +125. I rate this as even-money, and like getting + on Belal. Sean Brady is very good, but barely beat Chiesa IMO which was his toughest test so far. Belal is much more tested and looked damn good vs Wonderboy and Luque in his last two fights. It's good for Brady this is only a 3 rounder, I think Belal is a favorite in a 5 rounder.
Now that the line is coming down I'm looking to bet Yan under -250 fwiw.
What you guys think? Who you guys got? Keeping it shorter for now, but if people reply with interesting comments I'll reply back... Lemme here some analysis Sherbros!
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