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Paddy 'The Baddy' Pimblett faces Rodrigo 'Kazula' Vargas tomorrow, and Paddy has a TON of hype. He walks in a -830 favourite according to one betting site (sportsinteraction.com), and the reason is obvious: Paddy is hard to knock out, and Vargas is a terrible grappler. Not only is Vargas a terrible grappler, he's really easy to take down - Alex da Silva actually managed to take Kazula down off a Kazula takedown attempt, without having to reverse position, momentum, or anything else. He just forced him back, and Vargas couldn't maintain his balance.
Having said that, Pimblett has poor head position and movement, and came out of his UFC debut talking about a mythological-level chin. What that means is, he made too many mistakes, and got tagged WAY too often - you don't want to walk out of your UFC debut, against a hand-picked opponent, talking about your chin.
Pimblett is a kid who likes to throw a lot of kicks, but when his punches start landing, they're super accurate. Paddy rarely lets opponents off the hook. Having said that, there's nothing to suggest Vargas will wilt under Paddy's striking. Paddy would be better employing a more grappling-heavy offence, but I actually don't think that he will.
Vargas is fighting an ego here, and Paddy has shown he's willing to strike even when it's not advisable. Again, putting stock in your chin at this point in your career is a recipe for disaster. At this level, you shouldn't be getting hit with clean shots, and Paddy already is.
It's understandable that Paddy isn't fighting a better opponent than Vendramini. It's clear that there are too many question marks surrounding Paddy to give him a step up. So he's taking a sideways step, aiming at an opponent of a similar level to Vendramini, but one who presents a different skill set.
Vendramini is your average, pretty well-rounded prospect; Kazula Vargas has a better chin, hits harder, but is more susceptible to grappling. If Pimblett can't submit Vargas, he's probably not finishing him at all.
So... was this a mistake on Pimblett's management's part? Are we expecting Pimblett to come out looking for a (T)KO, thus putting himself in real danger against a dangerous boxer? Or are we expecting Paddy to revert to his strengths, which he's seemingly tried to avoid of late...
I'm saying, at the odds we're presented, with Paddy pressured into fighting that crowd-pleasing, exciting style... there's only really one bet to place.
That's Kazula Vargas to win.
But if Paddy focuses on his own strengths, and not being a showman? He could potentially secure a submission early in this fight.
DON'T discount Kazula.
Having said that, Pimblett has poor head position and movement, and came out of his UFC debut talking about a mythological-level chin. What that means is, he made too many mistakes, and got tagged WAY too often - you don't want to walk out of your UFC debut, against a hand-picked opponent, talking about your chin.
Pimblett is a kid who likes to throw a lot of kicks, but when his punches start landing, they're super accurate. Paddy rarely lets opponents off the hook. Having said that, there's nothing to suggest Vargas will wilt under Paddy's striking. Paddy would be better employing a more grappling-heavy offence, but I actually don't think that he will.
Vargas is fighting an ego here, and Paddy has shown he's willing to strike even when it's not advisable. Again, putting stock in your chin at this point in your career is a recipe for disaster. At this level, you shouldn't be getting hit with clean shots, and Paddy already is.
It's understandable that Paddy isn't fighting a better opponent than Vendramini. It's clear that there are too many question marks surrounding Paddy to give him a step up. So he's taking a sideways step, aiming at an opponent of a similar level to Vendramini, but one who presents a different skill set.
Vendramini is your average, pretty well-rounded prospect; Kazula Vargas has a better chin, hits harder, but is more susceptible to grappling. If Pimblett can't submit Vargas, he's probably not finishing him at all.
So... was this a mistake on Pimblett's management's part? Are we expecting Pimblett to come out looking for a (T)KO, thus putting himself in real danger against a dangerous boxer? Or are we expecting Paddy to revert to his strengths, which he's seemingly tried to avoid of late...
I'm saying, at the odds we're presented, with Paddy pressured into fighting that crowd-pleasing, exciting style... there's only really one bet to place.
That's Kazula Vargas to win.
But if Paddy focuses on his own strengths, and not being a showman? He could potentially secure a submission early in this fight.
DON'T discount Kazula.
