Usman at +240...am I high for thinking this is too wide?

[DjolexMTL]

Title says it all.

I know Usman has wobbly knees and it's short notice but he's still leagues beyond any fighter Khamzat has faced.

I'm not saying I'd bet my house on him, but I think +240 is too wide. He is much more proven, has better cardio, could hold his own in defensive wrestling, and I think he's more durable.

How do you see it?

 

[fizzlehiss]

Usman tends to duck his head a lot and Khamzat has nasty uppercuts on top preparing for 185 while Usman is a 170er(who doesn't miss weight) on short notice.

He should be a bigger underdog if anything.

 

[MMAWizz]

You are high, but that has nothing to do with it.

Usman was beyond any fighter that Khamzat has ever faced. Is the current version of Usman still leagues above Gilbert Burns? We will find out soon. I do think he looked pretty bad against Leon Edwards his last time out.

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

+240

Should be over +500

 

[DjolexMTL]

Perhaps I'm high. There's no going back at this point, I might have to bet my condo

 

[CasualBot]

 

[HolmeZy55]

There's no going back at this point, I might have to bet my condo

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

That's about a 30% chance with a vig attached.

11 days notice, major travel time, new division, 36 turning 37, two bad knees coming off two losses, against arguably a better wrestler.

I think a 1 in 3 chance is a tad high but accurate enough

 

[Substance Abuse]

I don't know. Are you high?

 

[Final Say]

+240

Should be over +500

Schaub said he had Strickland at +2000 against Izzy.

Is KowboyMMA Brendan Schaub?

 

[kingmob6]

it will be like +180 by the time fight starts.

 

[HuskySamoan]

it will be like +180 by the time fight starts.

It might widen after the weigh ins if the size disparity ends up being crazy. Otherwise +250 seems right to me.

 

[gentel]

Nah +240 is fine, look how Usman did against Leon in his last fight, and now he's up against a 15lbs larger opponent with elite grappling and 1-shot KO hands on short notice

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

it will be like +180 by the time fight starts.

Yeah but that bet influence. Initial line is just based on whatever analytics they have to get 50% action on both sides

 

[kingghidrah]

WTF is going on here?

Usman vs. Khamzat?

USADA gone?

Volk vs. Islam rematch??

Jeezus Christ, I take a few days off Sherdog and NOTHING IS THE SAME ANYMORE

 

[JoeRowe]

If the Leon/Usman fights were only 3 rounds, Usman would have won 29-28 in the first fight & the 2nd fight would've been a 28-28 draw.

Which is relevant given this fight is only 3 rounds. People act like Usman has fallen off a cliff. Maybe Leon is a great fighter & bad match up for Usman, & even then it's not like he was outclassed.

 

[onSMASH]

Definitely gonna sprinkle a little $100 on it, cause it's MMA and he is still an elite fighter.

 

[ElLunico]

Usman is old and a lot smaller.. He's getting KOed by Dana's favorite. I'd be shocked if this goes past the 1st round

 

[jeff7b9]

I don't know. Are you high?

 

[Substance Abuse]

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