UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy

Alencar-dec
Falcao-dec
Supishara-dec
Barboza-dec
Frunza-ko2
Santos-dec
Gurule-dec
Finney-dec
Meershit-sub2
Buday-dec
Ho lee-dec
Brito-ko2
Murphy-dec


Profited again this card prob about 400 not exactly sure in the words of @BigSteve early tease check out his YouTube channel this js without me looking at the odds yet
 
BigSteve said:
This is a sleeper card for bets lads.
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Card lacks violence and entertainment

I know we’re betting and that makes everything more interesting … but geeze what a shit card for excitement level

Too many fight nights in a row - we’re due for an exciting ppv

Hate betting low level fighters - not proven enough to trust
 
I know Loma is juiced af but I feel like shes going to just run over Istela Nunes
 
Brito was robbed vs Gomis, he should roll against Sabatini who's chinny and Brito might be one of the most athletic guys in the division, will look for his KO when it comes out.

Emmett is value, Murphy got hurt bad by Ige. He fights hard for your money for 5 rounds, is insanely durable and Murphy seems to have turned into a decision merchant. Sure he's old and inactive but Murphy has to look like a world beater for 25 minutes and so far the only person to do that vs Emmett is Ilia fucking Topuria lmao.
 
I think Tavares wins an ugly but convincing decision here. He has always had good anti-grappling and should have a sizable advantage on the feet. Not sure if it's worth betting but GM3 really does suck, which is tempting me.
 
XociDe said:
I think Tavares wins an ugly but convincing decision here. He has always had good anti-grappling and should have a sizable advantage on the feet. Not sure if it's worth betting but GM3 really does suck, which is tempting me.
Click to expand...

As chinny as GM3 is I could actually see Tavares finding his first knockout in 7 years.
 
Jinx_AA said:
Card lacks violence and entertainment

I know we’re betting and that makes everything more interesting … but geeze what a shit card for excitement level

Too many fight nights in a row - we’re due for an exciting ppv

Hate betting low level fighters - not proven enough to trust
Click to expand...
I'm talking betting alone.

Grant/Santos is a barn burner. Thats about it , hopefully some finishes.
 
jnes said:
Brito was robbed vs Gomis, he should roll against Sabatini who's chinny and Brito might be one of the most athletic guys in the division, will look for his KO when it comes out.

Emmett is value, Murphy got hurt bad by Ige. He fights hard for your money for 5 rounds, is insanely durable and Murphy seems to have turned into a decision merchant. Sure he's old and inactive but Murphy has to look like a world beater for 25 minutes and so far the only person to do that vs Emmett is Ilia fucking Topuria lmao.
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Brito definately wasnt robbed vs Gomis. I dont undetstand how one exchange where Gomis took few steps backwards meant that he was rocked in rd 1, that was the deciding round but he might just as well had the win as Gomis did.

That being said Sabbatini is completely different and would need to put on a wrestling clinic to beat Brito. I wouldnt be shocked but I do favor Brito.
 
Jinx_AA said:
Card lacks violence and entertainment

I know we’re betting and that makes everything more interesting … but geeze what a shit card for excitement level

Too many fight nights in a row - we’re due for an exciting ppv

Hate betting low level fighters - not proven enough to trust
Click to expand...
I make most of my profit from Fight Night cards.

The people/machines who control live betting in Las Vegas are clueless when the fight starts and there's a new fighter, a low level fighter, or when a momentum fighter is in there. Just recently we saw elevation play a role, which they don't know how to figure out in the middle of a fight. We can only take advantage of their lack of knowledge with MMA; they're too sharp with team sports.

Also, Vegas just started offering significant strikes and take down props. It can be a big money maker if you're knowledgeable in that area of MMA betting. You'll have a big advantage while the books are still trying to figure out which opening lines to set.
 
PuertoRican said:
I make most of my profit from Fight Night cards.

The people/machines who control live betting in Las Vegas are clueless when the fight starts and there's a new fighter, a low level fighter, or when a momentum fighter is in there. Just recently we saw elevation play a role, which they don't know how to figure out in the middle of a fight. We can only take advantage of their lack of knowledge with MMA; they're too sharp with team sports.

Also, Vegas just started offering significant strikes and take down props. It can be a big money maker if you're knowledgeable in that area of MMA betting. You'll have a big advantage while the books are still trying to figure out which opening lines to set.
Click to expand...
Borjas was +162 after rd 1 last week lol
 
Broe. said:
Borjas was +162 after rd 1 last week lol
Click to expand...
He was? He looked so sharp and even scored a knockdown, clearly got the better of the exchanges in pretty much every round
 
Broe. said:
Borjas was +162 after rd 1 last week lol
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Yep. Some of us in the PBP/Discussion thread cashed on Borjas as well.
  • Borjas live lines
  • Moreno -235 and -200 after being up 2-1, then -150 to -160 after losing R3 but then went on to win R4 and R5.
  • Rafa Garcia decision LB. Expensive at -300 but he was already winning most of the fight at that point.
  • MarQuel Mederos -166 after he won R1. Granted, I wasn't sure he won the decision after getting humped by Hubbard, but I bet him knowing he was up 1-0.
Those are the ones I remember, but there were some other spots.
 
I think there's two ways this event can go

Pro favorites

Murphy | Decision
Brito | KO/TKO
Lee | Decision
Nzechukwu | KO/TKO
Tavares | Decision
Finney | KO/TKO
Gurule | KO/TKO
Santos | Decision
Barbosa | Submission
Frunza | KO/TKO
Henry | Decision
Demopoulos | Decision
Lookboonmee | Decision

If it's a dog night:


Emmett | Decision
Sabatini | Decision
Lee | Decision
Nzechukwu | Decision
Meerschaert | Submission
Finney | KO/TKO
Osbourne | Decision
Grant | Decision
Barbosa | Submission
Frunza | KO/TKO
Falcão | Decision
Alencar | Decision
Lookboonmee | Decision
 
PuertoRican said:
Yep. Some of us in the PBP/Discussion thread cashed on Borjas as well.
  • Borjas live lines
  • Moreno -235 and -200 after being up 2-1, then -150 to -160 after losing R3 but then went on to win R4 and R5.
  • Rafa Garcia decision LB. Expensive at -300 but he was already winning most of the fight at that point.
  • MarQuel Mederos -166 after he won R1. Granted, I wasn't sure he won the decision after getting humped by Hubbard, but I bet him knowing he was up 1-0.
Those are the ones I remember, but there were some other spots.
Click to expand...

? His line went down to like -135 after Rd 2. I'm assuming he was at -300 at the beginning or during rd 1. After how he looked in Rd 2 and Rd 3, I'd be shocked if he was around those odds unless it was right after he hit the last takedown.
 
Oblivian said:
? His line went down to like -135 after Rd 2. I'm assuming he was at -300 at the beginning or during rd 1. After how he looked in Rd 2 and Rd 3, I'd be shocked if he was around those odds unless it was right after he hit the last takedown.
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The live betting lines didn't make sense for the Moreno fight, as well as 1/3 of the card. Every round in the Moreno fight was clear, imo, yet the lines didn't reflect it, but the score cards did.

Scroll to the bottom of the PBP/Discussion thread to see what I'm referring to. I bet Moreno at -235 and then -200 shortly after. Then Guld bet Moreno at -150 during R3 while I got him at -158. Then it was 2-1 heading into R4.

I was going to add more during R4 but Moreno's price jumped to a number I didn't want to touch.

R1 Moreno
R2 Moreno
R3 Erceg
R4 Moreno
R5 Moreno

PuertoRican

Thread 'Moreno vs. Erceg PBP/Discussion'

1743276541781.png

Screenshot 2025-03-29 at 12.28.33 PM.png
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PuertoRican said:
The live betting lines didn't make sense for the Moreno fight, as well as 1/3 of the card. Every round in the Moreno fight was clear, imo, yet the lines didn't reflect it, but the score cards did.

Scroll to the bottom of the PBP/Discussion thread to see what I'm referring to. I bet Moreno at -235 and then -200 shortly after. Then Guld bet Moreno at -150 during R3 while I got him at -158. Then it was 2-1 heading into R4.

I was going to add more during R4 but Moreno's price jumped to a number I didn't want to touch.

R1 Moreno
R2 Moreno
R3 Erceg
R4 Moreno
R5 Moreno

PuertoRican

Thread 'Moreno vs. Erceg PBP/Discussion'

1743276541781.png

Screenshot 2025-03-29 at 12.28.33 PM.png
  • Like
Click to expand...

From my recollection, the live odds on Garcia seemed to make sense. I think he was maybe -300 in Rd 1 or very beginning of Rd 1. It shifted drastically after Rd 2 which made sense. What was shocking was the 3-0 scorecards.
 
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