UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2

Bunes the only dog that jumps out at me right now. Maybe Dudakova too
 
I like Curtis over Kopylov, especially at dog odds.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Lopes, Ogden, C-Rod for me are tape worthy.

not a good card for ML plays.
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I'd avoid Lopes because he's so chinny, got KO'd in his first Contender Series fight and then dropped in the second one vs a can crusher.

Ogden has his first round sub losses on the regionals and won't be able to work his takedown + top control game here so you'd have to trust his striking. First grappler he fights since the Leavitt fight, I understand why one would play him since he's cashed as a dog before, but I wonder if Moises isn't just a bad matchup for him.

C-rod depends on Bashi's cardio, it's how he's gotten past wrestlers before but I feel like he gets held down for two and doesn't find a finish in the third. Would boil down to if Austin has looked gassy on tape before.

I think a bunch of dogs will look game but ultimately lose here, but who knows.
 
Thesnake101 said:
I'd avoid Lopes because he's so chinny, got KO'd in his first Contender Series fight and then dropped in the second one vs a can crusher.

Ogden has his first round sub losses on the regionals and won't be able to work his takedown + top control game here so you'd have to trust his striking. First grappler he fights since the Leavitt fight, I understand why one would play him since he's cashed as a dog before, but I wonder if Moises isn't just a bad matchup for him.

C-rod depends on Bashi's cardio, it's how he's gotten past wrestlers before but I feel like he gets held down for two and doesn't find a finish in the third. Would boil down to if Austin has looked gassy on tape before.

I think a bunch of dogs will look game but ultimately lose here, but who knows.
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tbf both of those guys are heavy handed fighters. The can crusher has 12 kos in 13 of his wins and Rebeiro is also a heavy hitter with subs , a finisher in general. Lopes has an early win in his career to Robocop , i know it was a long time ago , but its noteworthy. Magomed also is not a good finisher, he's gone to decision against semi decent fighters and has only finished cans with under 3 fights.. It's a case where mma math can deceive because both have a common opponent, but I think Rebeiro was not as competent a grappler as Lopes is. I have to tape and see how solid his tdd is, if he passes the eye test for that, he deserves a play.


i think what Ogden has going for him is that he's neither capable of subbing or koing Moises, so his true ML is going to be his dec line. I've been keen lately on handicapping dec lines when you know that other two options are void. Two of his sub losses are to the same dude via guillotine and 1 rnc. He's almost in the same boat as Klein who had been subbed 2x before. If he can out point Zellhuber, he can out point Moises, I acknowledge the sub threat is there, i just see a decent spot for an upset there. I haven't taped so this is pre tape reads.

C-rod passes the record capping test for me. He's beaten better fighters and has handed two undefeated fighters their first Ls. Bashi has a few decision fights with regional level fighters. So, if it hits the scorecards, on paper C-rod has higher rated dec wins. of course, taping needs to be applied here for me to not fall victim to record capping alone.
 
I profited like 300$ last event and surprisingly in draftkings as well 2$

Caliari-sub2+150
Tulio-dec-415
Johnson-dec-200
Dudakeva-dec+385
Gadzhiyasulov-dec-155
Gustaffson-ko2-200
Medic-ko2-185
Aliev-dec-400
Bashi-sub2-190
Moises-sub2-165
Almedia-dec-255
Harris-dec-140
Kooylov-dec-235
Dern-dec+138
 
Jinx_AA said:
Yikes … Kooylov just beat a better striker than Curtis … and all Curtis does is try and strike…
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And Curtis seems to be aging quickly. Has a knack for doing enough to look competitive and make fights close but still lose.
 
Stat_Collector said:
what's your read?
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Kopylov doesn't seem to do nearly as well when on the backfoot, and I don't think he has the footwork to give Curtis issues either.
I just see Curtis walking him down and landing the better hits and counters.
My only concern is Curtis' age and the potential for Kopylov to turn it into a grappling match.
 
Kline vs Dudakova the big wtf line to start 2025. Win or lose. Kline fought a stud but the fact still remains that she looked very flat in her debut.
 
Im playing at least Dern, Moises, Soriano, Parsons, and Johnson and ALmeida.

Possibly Ihor and Ashmouz.

Kopylov is going to beat the shit out of Curtis but the thing is Curtis isnt going away tends to develop sudden touch of death in these scenarios. I dont think Curtis will truly win even a second of this fight and he still might pull of the knockout.
 
sonhow said:
Kline vs Dudakova the big wtf line to start 2025. Win or lose. Kline fought a stud but the fact still remains that she looked very flat in her debut.
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style matchup favors Kline, she’s a better wrestler than Sam Hughes, given she was taking Jas down. Dudakova is the same as Knuttson who we saw last week lose to Rodriguez, strikers with basic grappling def.

Guld said:
Kopylov doesn't seem to do nearly as well when on the backfoot, and I don't think he has the footwork to give Curtis issues either.
I just see Curtis walking him down and landing the better hits and counters.
My only concern is Curtis' age and the potential for Kopylov to turn it into a grappling match.
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i like the over if its reasonable, seems risky . Kopy could punish his legs like Jack did.
 
Stat_Collector said:
style matchup favors Kline, she’s a better wrestler than Sam Hughes, given she was taking Jas down. Dudakova is the same as Knuttson who we saw last week lose to Rodriguez, strikers with basic grappling def.


i like the over if its reasonable, seems risky . Kopy could punish his legs like Jack did.
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Yes but the line is funny enough considering how badly her debut went. If shed won Id understand why shed be one of the biggest favorites of the upcoming year.
Most likely she wins of course.
 
sonhow said:
Yes but the line is funny enough considering how badly her debut went. If shed won Id understand why shed be one of the biggest favorites of the upcoming year.
Most likely she wins of course.
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I thought she did ok, it was short notice. she was able to win a round and ctrl Jas for a bit. Jas is probably a future contender or a top 10 potential.

I think Dudakova is playable if she had at least a finishing upside.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I thought she did ok, it was short notice. she was able to win a round and ctrl Jas for a bit. Jas is probably a future contender or a top 10 potential.

I think Dudakova is playable if she had at least a finishing upside.
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I should note Jas is already ranked 12th

Maverick is 15th and Kline did better than Maverick vs Jas, this places her rating higher than Maverick.
 
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