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UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song

Song , Abdul -Malik , and basharat parlay for me

Crap odds but seems like a lock

Melsik and Allen tempting as dogs … melsik just so inactive and mentally unstable - but he thrives against strikers ..probably end up passing on him but he’s tempting
 
Cerqueira must be considered against Bukauskas, it's almost a 🚨 for me.

Bukauskas has no business being -350 against a guy like this.

Totally unreliable fighter with a poor chin and pretty basic skillset.

Yes, Cerqueira looked like dogshit in his debut vs Aslan - wtf was he doing, but he is a nice size, and good athlete for the division.

He also has power which can be Bukauskas' kryptonite.

Also a blackbelt and is the main training partner of Jailton Almeida - probably has the advantage on the ground.
 
🚨 2.5U - Cerqueira +285 🚨

Just gotta take the big fella here at these odds.

If he can manage to settle into the pace of UFC fighting, he may spring one of the surprises of the card
 
Taking a chance on McConico. Ruziboev has a massive gap in his wrestling, and an MMA Lab guy could be decent enough to take advantage of that.
 
Mansur is gonna gas and lose at some point and I think it might be this fight. Klein is a gritty fighter with some good skills on the ground. He won't quit. If he can survive the first half of the fight, it will get very interesting. So many people are high on Mansur but I don't see it whatsoever.
 
ExitLUPin said:
I am gonna play Cejudo here. Line is wild IMO.
Click to expand...
I'm leaning Song, but I totally get where you are coming from. At those odds it's hard not to take a stab/hedge on CCC.

I already went heavy on Jean Silva. I got him at -450 yesterday, which is shit odds, but I feel pretty confident the risk is worth the reward on that one. (already moved to -550)

I like Fluffy as well. I'm tired of underestimating him lol.

I also like Font at dog odds. Might wait for those to get even more silly before I drop a bet on him though.
 
XociDe said:
Mansur is gonna gas and lose at some point and I think it might be this fight. Klein is a gritty fighter with some good skills on the ground. He won't quit. If he can survive the first half of the fight, it will get very interesting. So many people are high on Mansur but I don't see it whatsoever.
Click to expand...
Klein's two losses have been finishes, one of those to lesser wrestler in Bartling, so I wouldn't be so sure about this being the fight to fade Mansur on.

I guess Nick and his camp will be more familiar with Mansur due to already having prepared for him when Schultz fought him in the Contender Series, but even then. The over could be a better play since both guys are coming off quick finishes.
 
Yadong vs Cejudo has similar match making to Casey vs Dominic Cruz.

Yadong has struggled with grapplers in the past, rather he still can be out wrestled today im not sure.

1:40 ctrl time with Sandhagen rmd 4
1 min ctrl with Yan in rnd 3
and draw fight in 2019 vs Stamann 6:36 ctrl total
marlon vera 2 mins in rnd 3


Seems like the fight goes past rnd 3-5 his tdd goes down. and he's not the most favorable vs wrestlers. Id give cejudo a decent shot at a decision win, he's a former champ at the end of the day and he secured 5 mins of ctrl vs Alja.


Edit: dont like the size difference tho, 4 inches in height is big , on the fence about this one.
 
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On Fili and Cutelaba so far. Taking a look at a couple of others.

DalchaLungiambula said:
Cerqueira must be considered against Bukauskas, it's almost a 🚨 for me.

Bukauskas has no business being -350 against a guy like this.

Totally unreliable fighter with a poor chin and pretty basic skillset.

Yes, Cerqueira looked like dogshit in his debut vs Aslan - wtf was he doing, but he is a nice size, and good athlete for the division.

He also has power which can be Bukauskas' kryptonite.

Also a blackbelt and is the main training partner of Jailton Almeida - probably has the advantage on the ground.
Click to expand...

Dunno if you've seen his pre-UFC stuff but he was absolutely dogshit on the regionals.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
On Fili and Cutelaba so far. Taking a look at a couple of others.



Dunno if you've seen his pre-UFC stuff but he was absolutely dogshit on the regionals.
Click to expand...
No he wasn't, only in his last fight in the shopping mall before he got signed to the UFC where he fought at heavyweight, where he said he didn't train because he had given up on being an MMA fighter, because he thought the UFC weren't interested in him.



That is not the finish of someone who is dogshit.

Jailton Almeida knows the truth.

 
DalchaLungiambula said:
No he wasn't, only in his last fight in the shopping mall before he got signed to the UFC where he fought at heavyweight, where he said he didn't train because he had given up on being an MMA fighter, because he thought the UFC weren't interested in him.



That is not the finish of someone who is dogshit.

Jailton Almeida knows the truth.

Click to expand...


Check out the Rodrigo Araujo fight if it's still up. Dude was horrible.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Klein's two losses have been finishes, one of those to lesser wrestler in Bartling, so I wouldn't be so sure about this being the fight to fade Mansur on.

I guess Nick and his camp will be more familiar with Mansur due to already having prepared for him when Schultz fought him in the Contender Series, but even then. The over could be a better play since both guys are coming off quick finishes.
Click to expand...

If Mansur finishes him early I won't be shocked. I just don't think Mansur is the prospect everyone (including the oddsmakers) thinks he is, and Klein's style could pose problems if the fight goes late.

Klein gave an interview recently and said the same thing. He knows the first two rounds will be dangerous but he's banking on making it to the third.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
The Youtube vid said Ivonilson Dias.

I'm amazed that you were impressed with that fight tbh. His takedowns looked horrendous to me.
Click to expand...
I meant when I said this (after you said he looked dogshit on the regionals): "No he wasn't, only in his last fight in the shopping mall before he got signed to the UFC where he fought at heavyweight, where he said he didn't train because he had given up on being an MMA fighter, because he thought the UFC weren't interested in him."

But I guess, it is true, it is cause for some concern.

I don't think this guy is definitely going to win or anything, but Bukasukus is basic and chinny, and this guy looks like he has the potential to be someone who could give him a much tougher fight than what would be expected
 
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Cejudo should be able to take Song down but he's 38 now and people who fight Song usually take quite a bit of damage, plus Song is a pretty good scrambler and will make Cejudo work. Will Cejudo's cardio be the same after 2-3 rounds of damage piling up and scrambles? I don't really see a finish for Cejudo, Song is super durable. This could be just a simple age fight, in their primes I'd pick Cejudo in a heartbeat but 38 is super old against one of the most dynamic and powerful BW's. Not touching Song at these odds either, Cejudo has elite fight IQ and probably makes this closer than the odds suggest.

Cutelaba at + odds and Fili at pick'em interest me at first glance. I think Fluffy should win but the odds seem wide, Allen matches up well against grapplers that aren't dynamic on the feet and it's only a 3 rounder.
 
Okay enlighten me. Did Matsumoto look like 90-100% sure thing to be world champion in the next few years in that last fight against Katona? If not then wtf are these odds vs Font after a two fight ufc career? Something doesnt quite add up here.
But now that Ive said it he probably does fight the tightest, most error free fight in ufc history and piece up the veteran round by round.
 
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