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We keep hearing conspiracy theories that the Dems are fighting against immigration enforcement because they want future liberal voters. And that they want no voter ID laws so illegals can vote.
This is false and not the reason. Illegals are not voting, cannot vote and they're not playing a long game of 18 years hoping their future children will vote Democrat. This is a ridiculous conspiracy.
The real reason is the Census count that is coming soon.
1. The Census determines how many Electoral College votes and Congressional Representatives you get. The current rule is that seats and votes are determined by total people living in the state, rather than how many citizens or permanent residents.
2. Trump tried to change this counting, so it would only include legal residents during his last term, but that effort failed.
3. This political jockeying for power is what's happening in the background, but none of the news are really reporting it.
What would happen if all Illegals were either not counted for the Census or deported.
1. It will shift the balance of power in the country for decades. Possibly a 55% to 45% or even 60-40% red vs blue.
2. Huge population coastal states like NY, California and Illinois get a huge voting block due to raw population Census figures. Even a small swing will have drastic consequences in favor of red. The whole country will be red for a long, long time.
3. Alternatively, if all those new illegal arrivals stay and are counted, this will be a significant bonus of political power for blue states. Possibly even allowing Presidential elections to not be contingent on the rust belt states at all. They can be completely ignored.
The 3 largest sanctuary states fighting the hardest are California, Illinois and New York.
1. All three has faced significant population loss since Covid. During the last Census for example, New York lost 2 electoral votes and 2 Congressional Representatives and those went to Texas and Florida.
2. This increasing population loss is very worrying to sanctuary states - these 3 especially. And they need/want to replace this population loss by the next Census or else they'll lose even more political power.
3. Many illegals flock to these states for their population density, generous benefits given and sanctuary protections.
4. These 3 states are highly resistant to ICE enforcement even for violent criminal aliens. They even instruct their police to not honor ICE detainer requests even if they have an administrative warrant. They only honor it if ICE has a specific order from a judge for that specific person, which they can't ignore.
"A Detainer is a request from ICE to local jails or prisons to hold a potentially deportable person so they can pick them up."
5. Conversely from the Republican side, this is why you're having so much ICE enforcement happening in these 3 states in particular - they want to get these people out before the Census.
Red States like Texas and Florida also have a high amount of illegal immigrants that grant them political power. But they're not fighting against ICE detentions. Why?
1. This population loss is being mitigated because the large population exodus from states like California and New York are going to red states. Texas and Florida especially.
2. The National Democratic Redistricting Committee, has said it expects to see California, New York, Illinois, Rhode Island and other blue states lose seats under the traditional apportionment that will follow the 2030 Census.
3. That's why social media is never showing ICE protests and confrontations in states like Texas. The detentions are all happening at prisons and jails because there is cooperation with local police.
Side Effect of Increased Enforcement in Sanctuary States without ICE detainers honored
1. ICE is forced to go out into the streets and businesses instead of prisons, jails and courthouses, which is a safe place to detain someone.
2. When jails or prisons don't release the guy who just got a DUI who came in the last 2 years and not contributing to society, you have to go to their house or workplace.
3. This unfortunately leads to a lot of people getting caught up as collateral damage. No one wants to see abuela that has been here for years detained.
But when you go to an illegal in those places, ICE's hands are tied (legally.) They have to detain all the other people there too. The uncles, grandmas, wife, etc.
End result of this is unfortunate and will not change. There will be continued enforcement and continued fierce resistance with a lot of collateral damage.
That's how it will play out for 3 more years.
This is false and not the reason. Illegals are not voting, cannot vote and they're not playing a long game of 18 years hoping their future children will vote Democrat. This is a ridiculous conspiracy.
The real reason is the Census count that is coming soon.
1. The Census determines how many Electoral College votes and Congressional Representatives you get. The current rule is that seats and votes are determined by total people living in the state, rather than how many citizens or permanent residents.
2. Trump tried to change this counting, so it would only include legal residents during his last term, but that effort failed.
3. This political jockeying for power is what's happening in the background, but none of the news are really reporting it.
What would happen if all Illegals were either not counted for the Census or deported.
1. It will shift the balance of power in the country for decades. Possibly a 55% to 45% or even 60-40% red vs blue.
2. Huge population coastal states like NY, California and Illinois get a huge voting block due to raw population Census figures. Even a small swing will have drastic consequences in favor of red. The whole country will be red for a long, long time.
3. Alternatively, if all those new illegal arrivals stay and are counted, this will be a significant bonus of political power for blue states. Possibly even allowing Presidential elections to not be contingent on the rust belt states at all. They can be completely ignored.
The 3 largest sanctuary states fighting the hardest are California, Illinois and New York.
1. All three has faced significant population loss since Covid. During the last Census for example, New York lost 2 electoral votes and 2 Congressional Representatives and those went to Texas and Florida.
2. This increasing population loss is very worrying to sanctuary states - these 3 especially. And they need/want to replace this population loss by the next Census or else they'll lose even more political power.
3. Many illegals flock to these states for their population density, generous benefits given and sanctuary protections.
4. These 3 states are highly resistant to ICE enforcement even for violent criminal aliens. They even instruct their police to not honor ICE detainer requests even if they have an administrative warrant. They only honor it if ICE has a specific order from a judge for that specific person, which they can't ignore.
"A Detainer is a request from ICE to local jails or prisons to hold a potentially deportable person so they can pick them up."
5. Conversely from the Republican side, this is why you're having so much ICE enforcement happening in these 3 states in particular - they want to get these people out before the Census.
Red States like Texas and Florida also have a high amount of illegal immigrants that grant them political power. But they're not fighting against ICE detentions. Why?
1. This population loss is being mitigated because the large population exodus from states like California and New York are going to red states. Texas and Florida especially.
2. The National Democratic Redistricting Committee, has said it expects to see California, New York, Illinois, Rhode Island and other blue states lose seats under the traditional apportionment that will follow the 2030 Census.
3. That's why social media is never showing ICE protests and confrontations in states like Texas. The detentions are all happening at prisons and jails because there is cooperation with local police.
Side Effect of Increased Enforcement in Sanctuary States without ICE detainers honored
1. ICE is forced to go out into the streets and businesses instead of prisons, jails and courthouses, which is a safe place to detain someone.
2. When jails or prisons don't release the guy who just got a DUI who came in the last 2 years and not contributing to society, you have to go to their house or workplace.
3. This unfortunately leads to a lot of people getting caught up as collateral damage. No one wants to see abuela that has been here for years detained.
But when you go to an illegal in those places, ICE's hands are tied (legally.) They have to detain all the other people there too. The uncles, grandmas, wife, etc.
End result of this is unfortunate and will not change. There will be continued enforcement and continued fierce resistance with a lot of collateral damage.
That's how it will play out for 3 more years.
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