The Chael Curse: Actual stats and conclusion

[achoo42]

After the week after the Askren v Paul fight I made a list of all the Chael predictions I could find for in order to see the true veracity of the so-called "Chael curse". Here's what I found:

The fighter Chael predicts to win will be on the left side. Actual winning fighter in bold.

1. Evan Dunham vs Sean Sherk
   
   
2. Ryan Bader vs Antônio Rogério Nogueira
   
   
3. Dan Henderson vs Michael Bisping
   
   
4. Ronda Rousey vs Holly Holm
   
   
5. José Aldo vs Conor McGregor
   
   
6. Chris Weidman vs Luke Rockhold
   
   
7. Mark Hunt vs Brock Lesnar
   
   
8. Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Conor McGregor
   
   
9. Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier (2)
   
   
10. Frankie Edgar vs Korean Zombie
    
    
11. Anthony Pettis vs Stephen Thompson
    
    
12. Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis
    
    
13. Uriah Faber vs Petr Yan
    
    
14. Donald Cerrone vs Conor McGregor
    
    
15. Dominick Cruz vs Henry Cejudo
    
    
16. Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal
    
    
17. Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski
    
    
18. José Aldo vs Petr Yan
    
    
19. Sean O’Malley vs Chito Vera
    
    
20. Paulo Costa vs Israel Adesanya
    
    
21. Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje
    
    
22. Robert Whittaker vs Jared Cannonier
    
    
23. Paul Felder vs Rafael dos Anjos
    
    
24. Tony Ferguson vs Charles Oliveira
    
    
25. Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier (2)
    
    
26. Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns
    
    
27. Israel Adesanya vs Jan Blachowicz
    
    
28. Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou
    
    
29. Kevin Holland vs Derek Brunson
    
    
30. Kelvin Gastelum vs Robert Whittaker
    
    
31. Ben Askren vs Jake Paul

10/31 correct predictions: 32.03% accuracy rate.

This list isn't comprehensive, it's just everything I could be bothered to find. But it's still a decent representative sample and it looks to me like the Chael curse is pretty real.

 

[TJ Dillashank]

30% is better than I thought tbh

 

[Nathan LaMontagne]

The stat I want to see compared to his predictions, is how many of them were favourites that he picked?

He's pretty terrible unless the match is obvious.

like what the hell? Faber vs Yan? and that isn't viewed in hindsight.

 

[theleerygoose]

I suspected he was wrong more than he was right but that’s pretty bad.

To his defense his job is to entertain which sometimes means taking a “hot take” even if you don’t believe what your saying.

 

[Get To Da Choppa]

Chael is playing 3D chess. He knows the Chael curse is real, so he'll predict one guy to win but bet on the other guy.

 

[Moral Victory]

He used to be entertaining, nowadays it's just the same thing over and over, he talks a lot, empty words, click bait titles, manufactured drama, and his analysis is to be taken with a fist ful of salt.

Dang I sound salty today.

Nice list though, good work.

 

[Frank McEdgar]

This list isn't comprehensive

so lower than 32%

 

[D0GMeAT]

After the week after the Askren v Paul fight I made a list of all the Chael predictions I could find for in order to see the true veracity of the so-called "Chael curse". Here's what I found:

The fighter Chael predicts to win will be on the left side. Actual winning fighter in bold.

1. Evan Dunham vs Sean Sherk
   
   
2. Ryan Bader vs Antônio Rogério Nogueira
   
   
3. Dan Henderson vs Michael Bisping
   
   
4. Ronda Rousey vs Holly Holm
   
   
5. José Aldo vs Conor McGregor
   
   
6. Chris Weidman vs Luke Rockhold
   
   
7. Mark Hunt vs Brock Lesnar
   
   
8. Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Conor McGregor
   
   
9. Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier (2)
   
   
10. Frankie Edgar vs Korean Zombie
    
    
11. Anthony Pettis vs Stephen Thompson
    
    
12. Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis
    
    
13. Uriah Faber vs Petr Yan
    
    
14. Donald Cerrone vs Conor McGregor
    
    
15. Dominick Cruz vs Henry Cejudo
    
    
16. Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal
    
    
17. Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski
    
    
18. José Aldo vs Petr Yan
    
    
19. Sean O’Malley vs Chito Vera
    
    
20. Paulo Costa vs Israel Adesanya
    
    
21. Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje
    
    
22. Robert Whittaker vs Jared Cannonier
    
    
23. Paul Felder vs Rafael dos Anjos
    
    
24. Tony Ferguson vs Charles Oliveira
    
    
25. Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier (2)
    
    
26. Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns
    
    
27. Israel Adesanya vs Jan Blachowicz
    
    
28. Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou
    
    
29. Kevin Holland vs Derek Brunson
    
    
30. Kelvin Gastelum vs Robert Whittaker
    
    
31. Ben Askren vs Jake Paul

10/31 correct predictions: 32.03% accuracy rate.

This list isn't comprehensive, it's just everything I could be bothered to find. But it's still a decent representative sample and it looks to me like the Chael curse is pretty real.

On your list, I only counted 9 correct picks.

 

[HatKick]

He also picked Woodley to beat Usman iirc.

30% is turrible. Seems like he goes with former champs and veterans a lot out of respect, even if they're past prime. Faber over Yan, Frankie over KZ, Cowboy over Conor and Askren over Paul are some bad picks. Also jumped on the Costa train like a fool.

Somehow got Pettis vs WB right though.

 

[THEfightsAREfixed]

im around 60%

 

[Dude Incredible]

Chael is playing 5D chess. He knows the Chael curse is real, so he'll predict one guy to win but bet on the other guy.

Fixed

What he is doing is beyond anyone's comprehension, thank you!

 

[Johnnny]

1. Evan Dunham vs Sean Sherk
   
   
2. Ryan Bader vs Antônio Rogério Nogueira
   
   
3. Dan Henderson vs Michael Bisping
   
   
4. Ronda Rousey vs Holly Holm
   
   
5. José Aldo vs Conor McGregor
   
   
6. Chris Weidman vs Luke Rockhold
   
   
7. Mark Hunt vs Brock Lesnar
   
   
8. Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Conor McGregor
   
   
9. Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier (2)
   
   
10. Frankie Edgar vs Korean Zombie
    
    
11. Anthony Pettis vs Stephen Thompson
    
    
12. Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis
    
    
13. Uriah Faber vs Petr Yan
    
    
14. Donald Cerrone vs Conor McGregor
    
    
15. Dominick Cruz vs Henry Cejudo
    
    
16. Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal
    
    
17. Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski
    
    
18. José Aldo vs Petr Yan
    
    
19. Sean O’Malley vs Chito Vera
    
    
20. Paulo Costa vs Israel Adesanya
    
    
21. Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje
    
    
22. Robert Whittaker vs Jared Cannonier
    
    
23. Paul Felder vs Rafael dos Anjos
    
    
24. Tony Ferguson vs Charles Oliveira
    
    
25. Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier (2)
    
    
26. Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns
    
    
27. Israel Adesanya vs Jan Blachowicz
    
    
28. Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou
    
    
29. Kevin Holland vs Derek Brunson
    
    
30. Kelvin Gastelum vs Robert Whittaker
    
    
31. Ben Askren vs Jake Paul

10/31 correct predictions: 32.03% accuracy rate.

*Willis didn't beat Blaydes

Blindly going with the betting favorite would have resulted in 65% accuracy.

1. L: Dunham -185
2. W: Bader -180
3. W: Henderson -223
4. L: Rousey -1400
5. L: Aldo -115
6. L: Weidman -155
7. L: Hunt -150
8. W: Nurmagomedov -215
9. W: Jones -315
10. W: Chan Sung -200
11. L: Thompson -425
12. W: Blaydes -265
13. W: Yan -550
14. W: McGregor -325
15. W: Cejudo -225
16. W: Usman -260
17. W: Volkanovski -210
18. W: Yan -260
19. L: O'Malley -300
20. W: Adesanya -185
21. W: Nurmagomedov -275
22. W: Whittaker -125
23. W: Dos Anjos -200
24. L: Ferguson -165
25. L: McGregor -310
26. W: Usman -280
27. L: Adesanya -260
28. W: Ngannou -135
29. L: Holland -190
30. W: Whittaker -275
31. W: Paul -190

 

[Luckyme]

30% is better than I thought tbh

He's like 2-12 in his predictions this year. In fairness, MMA is so unpredictable that even 50% isn't terrible but it surprises me how bad so-called pros can be.

 

[Dan Torrance]

Chael chooses with his heart and past loyalties a lot of the time. He also likes to choose based on whatever story he's decided to tell to appeal to a particular fandom or to fit into a larger theme he's invested in at the time.

What it comes down to is Chael is a story teller and I'm willing to bet that if he was trying to be a cold numbers guy and get the right answer he'd be in the 60%-70% range.

 

[HockeyBjj]

After the week after the Askren v Paul fight I made a list of all the Chael predictions I could find for in order to see the true veracity of the so-called "Chael curse". Here's what I found:

The fighter Chael predicts to win will be on the left side. Actual winning fighter in bold.

1. Evan Dunham vs Sean Sherk
   
   
2. Ryan Bader vs Antônio Rogério Nogueira
   
   
3. Dan Henderson vs Michael Bisping
   
   
4. Ronda Rousey vs Holly Holm
   
   
5. José Aldo vs Conor McGregor
   
   
6. Chris Weidman vs Luke Rockhold
   
   
7. Mark Hunt vs Brock Lesnar
   
   
8. Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Conor McGregor
   
   
9. Jon Jones vs Daniel Cormier (2)
   
   
10. Frankie Edgar vs Korean Zombie
    
    
11. Anthony Pettis vs Stephen Thompson
    
    
12. Curtis Blaydes vs Justin Willis
    
    
13. Uriah Faber vs Petr Yan
    
    
14. Donald Cerrone vs Conor McGregor
    
    
15. Dominick Cruz vs Henry Cejudo
    
    
16. Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal
    
    
17. Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski
    
    
18. José Aldo vs Petr Yan
    
    
19. Sean O’Malley vs Chito Vera
    
    
20. Paulo Costa vs Israel Adesanya
    
    
21. Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Justin Gaethje
    
    
22. Robert Whittaker vs Jared Cannonier
    
    
23. Paul Felder vs Rafael dos Anjos
    
    
24. Tony Ferguson vs Charles Oliveira
    
    
25. Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier (2)
    
    
26. Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns
    
    
27. Israel Adesanya vs Jan Blachowicz
    
    
28. Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou
    
    
29. Kevin Holland vs Derek Brunson
    
    
30. Kelvin Gastelum vs Robert Whittaker
    
    
31. Ben Askren vs Jake Paul

10/31 correct predictions: 32.03% accuracy rate.

This list isn't comprehensive, it's just everything I could be bothered to find. But it's still a decent representative sample and it looks to me like the Chael curse is pretty real.

The most astonishing thing about Chaels picks is that he picked cowboy to beat McGregor, but then McGregor to beat Porier

In what world does he think cowboy is a better fighter than Porier in 2020-2021?

 

[achoo42]

*Willis didn't beat Blaydes

I'll edit it. The stats remains the same since it used to be 9/31 and now is truly 10/31.

 

[Herwald]

He used to be entertaining, nowadays it's just the same thing over and over, he talks a lot, empty words, click bait titles, manufactured drama, and his analysis is to be taken with a fist ful of salt.

Dang I sound salty today.

Nice list though, good work.

It's just one of those things.

Anyways, would be interesting to get stats like this about others. Like, Bisping - he always gives his picks on his podcast (unless he's commentating). I feel like he's had a better ratio.

 

[Nathan LaMontagne]

*Willis didn't beat Blaydes

Blindly going with the betting favorite would have resulted in 65% accuracy.

1. L: Dunham -185
2. W: Bader -180
3. W: Henderson -223
4. L: Rousey -1400
5. L: Aldo -115
6. L: Weidman -155
7. L: Hunt -150
8. W: Nurmagomedov -215
9. W: Jones -315
10. W: Chan Sung -200
11. L: Thompson -425
12. W: Blaydes -265
13. W: Yan -550
14. W: McGregor -325
15. W: Cejudo -225
16. W: Usman -260
17. W: Volkanovski -210
18. W: Yan -260
19. L: O'Malley -300
20. W: Adesanya -185
21. W: Nurmagomedov -275
22. W: Whittaker -125
23. W: Dos Anjos -200
24. L: Ferguson -165
25. L: McGregor -310
26. W: Usman -280
27. L: Adesanya -260
28. W: Ngannou -135
29. L: Holland -190
30. W: Whittaker -275
31. W: Paul -190

Damn. Thank you for this post.

Wish I could give like 5 likes.

 

[machidafan99]

he simply goes for the more established fighter unless he has a personal relationship with the underdog

 

[Post 2 Decision]

He went 5/5 on that Usman, Rose, Shev main card