Stocks/Mutual Funds/ETFs Portfolio (NEW)

[Orgasmo]

Since the old thread on our investments had disappeared due to the forum "upgrade", I think it's high time to start a new one.

The most significant development in the past week has been the Fed interest rate hike, which actually boosted the stock market. The market took it as a shot of confidence, and all my mutual funds and stocks rose by a decent amount. I think I made about 2K in total within 48 hours of the rate hike.

After a nine-year interval between interest rate rises, the U.S. Federal Reserve has finally provided wondering investors with closure, by raising interest rates, albeit modestly, by a quarter of a percentage point, from 0.25% to 0.5%.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/charlespurdy/2015/12/18/what-next-for-u-s-interest-rates/

And they predict another hike in March next year:

The Federal Reserve is expected to follow this week’s first post-crisis rate rise by lifting US borrowing costs again in March, according to a Financial Times survey of leading economists.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c2455036-a5ad-11e5-97e1-a754d5d9538c.html#axzz3uja7ly6y

Currently in my mutual fund portfolio:
RBC QUBE Low Volatility US Equities Funds (up 15% this year)
RBC US Index Fund (up 17% this year)

I'm currently looking at some ETFs at the moment, as I'm find active trading too tedious. Any good recommendations?

 

[MASShole]

It sucks that the old thread was lost.

I dig low volatility funds in conjunction with a small cap value fund.

 

[Akpan5000]

I'm getting ready to start my TDAmeritrade roth IRA and I was thinking of doing mostly low fund ETF's however people I talk to keep telling me that jumping into the market now is a bad idea due to the record high valuation and that I would be getting in at its peak and it is going to definitely drop a lot so just stand in cash on the sidelines until that occurs.

What do you guys think. I have a decent amount of cash to fully fund my yearly IRA and start a separate trading account but would it be stupid to jump in now, and if so, what would you recommend?

 

[Orgasmo]

I'm getting ready to start my TDAmeritrade roth IRA and I was thinking of doing mostly low fund ETF's however people I talk to keep telling me that jumping into the market now is a bad idea due to the record high valuation and that I would be getting in at its peak and it is going to definitely drop a lot so just stand in cash on the sidelines until that occurs.

What do you guys think. I have a decent amount of cash to fully fund my yearly IRA and start a separate trading account but would it be stupid to jump in now, and if so, what would you recommend?

The market will rise about 7 to 11 percent in 2016, according to most analysts. I think it's a fairly safe bet that these ETFs will rise accordingly. With that said, we had bull market for over 7 years since 2008with stocks rising 200%. A market correction is coming due to weak growth low oil demands, so don't be surprised if stocks drop significantly near the end of 2016. You need to be on your toes and get ready to pull out half way past 2016.

 

[llama de lrey]

The market will rise about 7 to 11 percent in 2016, according to most analysts. I think it's a fairly safe bet that these ETFs will rise accordingly. With that said, we had bull market for over 7 years since 2008with stocks rising 200%. A market correction is coming due to weak growth low oil demands, so don't be surprised if stocks drop significantly near the end of 2016. You need to be on your toes and get ready to pull out half way past 2016.

Probably true, but timing the market is a fools game. Buy and hold with a long term horizon is the best route. I'm 32 and have about $140,000 in stocks right now. I don't plan on using that money until I'm 55. Slow and steady growth and compounding interest tends to win over timing the market in the long term.

 

[Orgasmo]

Probably true, but timing the market is a fools game. Buy and hold with a long term horizon is the best route. I'm 32 and have about $140,000 in stocks right now. I don't plan on using that money until I'm 55. Slow and steady growth and compounding interest tends to win over timing the market in the long term.

Buy and hold works as long as the market is in a general upswing, but you can suffer significant losses. For example, if you pulled out just a week after Lehman Brothers folded in 2008, you would have saved yourself from a 30% drop in assets over the next 6 months. No one can time the market properly, but a bit of vigilance can save you lots of money. General rule of thumb is switching to bonds or GIC when it's a bear market.

 

[MASShole]

I'm getting ready to start my TDAmeritrade roth IRA and I was thinking of doing mostly low fund ETF's however people I talk to keep telling me that jumping into the market now is a bad idea due to the record high valuation and that I would be getting in at its peak and it is going to definitely drop a lot so just stand in cash on the sidelines until that occurs.

What do you guys think. I have a decent amount of cash to fully fund my yearly IRA and start a separate trading account but would it be stupid to jump in now, and if so, what would you recommend?

Time in market is so much better than market timing, meaning just put your money in and let it ride for YEARS.

If I'm going to do a low cost ETF portfolio, I'd choose 5 funds like this for a normal investor:

US large cap 30%
US mid cap 15%
US small cap 5%
International total 25% (mix of large and developing)
Total bonds 25% (mostly investment grade, some junk)

A 75%/25% split rebalanced every year does most investors really well. You would sell your winners and buy your losers annually and be set. You can also do this quarterly or semi-annually if there aren't any transaction costs (like in a 401k). Each ETF has to be super low fees and just a straight index.

 

[Brampton_Boy]

My portfolio is down almost 40k since summer of 2014 - between UWTI, Chesapeake energy and Transocean, I have been absolutely raped by oil's decline.

However, I still feel pretty good about long term prospects for the energy sector. I recently took up a fairly large position in Encana and Whitecap energy (which are both trading at multi year lows), and I don't see much more downside.

My lone bright spot this year has been my success with options - They are great for a day trade given volatility in the stock market. Also, for those of you who hold long term, read up on covered calls (if you haven't already). I generate anywhere from $1000-$1500 extra a month writing calls against my existing position. The obvious draw back is that you miss out on a potential run (and I did when the stock market took off in October), but on the whole, it is a low risk way to generate cash flow.

 

[kahiljabroni]

I have no money in the market but with oil prices so low ive been considering buying...anyone think this is a good idea? If so how would u buy? Commodities? Invest in bp?

 

[FlowWithTheGo23]

Probably true, but timing the market is a fools game. Buy and hold with a long term horizon is the best route. I'm 32 and have about $140,000 in stocks right now. I don't plan on using that money until I'm 55. Slow and steady growth and compounding interest tends to win over timing the market in the long term.

I'm two years older than you and have less than a fraction of that. I feel like a total failure.

 

[Serana]

This thread is right up @Jack V Savage's alley.

 

[Orgasmo]

My portfolio is down almost 40k since summer of 2014 - between UWTI, Chesapeake energy and Transocean, I have been absolutely raped by oil's decline.

However, I still feel pretty good about long term prospects for the energy sector. I recently took up a fairly large position in Encana and Whitecap energy (which are both trading at multi year lows), and I don't see much more downside.

My lone bright spot this year has been my success with options - They are great for a day trade given volatility in the stock market. Also, for those of you who hold long term, read up on covered calls (if you haven't already). I generate anywhere from $1000-$1500 extra a month writing calls against my existing position. The obvious draw back is that you miss out on a potential run (and I did when the stock market took off in October), but on the whole, it is a low risk way to generate cash flow.

I will not touch oil or energy company with a 10 feet pole in the next 6 months. I don't think crude prices have hit rock bottom yet, and global growth outlook isn't that great for next year. The demand is just not there, and oil producing states are flooding the market for political/economic purposes. Even when oil rebounds, I doubt it will hit its 2013 heights.

I'm two years older than you and have less than a fraction of that. I feel like a total failure.

No need to be down, since we all have different opportunities. I just turned 28, and I have a classmate that already own two condos, a BMW 750Li and over 150k in stocks. He's a university drop out too, but he knew how to seize every financial opportunities presented to him. Meanwhile, I'm not even at 1/4 of his net worth, and I was a lot better student back in school than he was. There will always be people ahead of you, and that's life.

Now, making the right investments and being consistent at saving up money will get you ahead of the pack very quickly.

 

[llama de lrey]

I'm two years older than you and have less than a fraction of that. I feel like a total failure.

I'm still a failure more or less

 

[Orgasmo]

I'm still a failure more or less

We all fail at certain things or certain point in life. It's more important that we work on it. Though I have to say, having some money solves most of your life problems, thus the reason for this thread.

 

[BigJaw McCarthy]

So what other websites do you guys frequent that allow comments/discussion on investing? Besides Seeking Alpha and Bogleheads.

 

[Orgasmo]

So what other websites do you guys frequent that allow comments/discussion on investing? Besides Seeking Alpha and Bogleheads.

http://www.freedomthirtyfiveblog.com/

This guy is the same age as me, but much further ahead financially. He keeps a blog with discussions at the bottom.

 

[MASShole]

So what other websites do you guys frequent that allow comments/discussion on investing? Besides Seeking Alpha and Bogleheads.

Those two sites pretty much cover the two basic investment philosophies out there.

There are other "theories", so to speak, on wealth, such as buying a home with an ARM, investing the interest savings and everything else into a whole life insurance policy, and once the policy gets to the point where you can take a loan and the growth is bigger than the loan, you can live tax free forever. It takes SUPER discipline and some financial wizardry, but some people pull it off.

There's also the people that do a similar thing to pay off their house in 15 years or so. Do an ARM, invest your funds in an open account, including the interest saved on taxes from the ARM, and in about 15 years or so people generally have more funds in the open account than their mortgage is worth.

Those two scenarios only really play out when interest rates are relatively low (under 6% or so), and the person is utterly dedicated to saving all they can. Otherwise, people fail pretty quickly when they see how much cash or readily available funds they have on hand.


My basic philosophy is this: Invest in your 401k to get the match, then max out a Roth (or an annual non-deductible IRA to Roth conversion), after that max out your 401k (Roth 401ks are the best). If you still have funds leftover, and are in good health, choose the health plan at work that allows you to do an HSA and max that out (you can invest those funds in stocks/bonds/etc). Now we're up to about $30k per year or so for an individual that you're putting away. If you can do more than that, there are two choices: low cost and low tax ETFs or blue chip dividend growth stocks like KO, PEP, MO, JNJ, etc. Or, go have a vacation and enjoy some alcohol. Oh, and have an emergency fund put away for like 6 months of expenses.

 

[ka pow]

I noticed the S&P had been going sideways for the past year so started a short position in early December. I'm going to stay short unless the S&P can break above its current resistance level. I have 75k in GRZZX, it's a short bias mutual fund that performed pretty well during the last downturn. I'm going to add to my short position using the SH etf if the S&P gets up to ~2100 again.

It just doesn't look like the market can go higher. I think there's a lot of risk in owning stocks at this point (with very little rewards).

 

[SexyMahnaz]

I'm balls deep in Asia. The middle class, especially in China is growing & getting a taste for splashing around cash, there's lots of graduates in STEM fields rather than the liberal arts crap we're churning out (myself included) & there's pretty low valuations. Or so I'm told. I'm in for ~10 years.

 

[wlu29]

http://www.freedomthirtyfiveblog.com/

This guy is the same age as me, but much further ahead financially. He keeps a blog with discussions at the bottom.

He's mostly BS

A lot of things he doesn't consider like taxes on dividends when he's tryimg to show his "hedge fund"