Sherdog's Own Picks for UFC 280: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev

Gio · Oct 16, 2022

Sherdog's Own Posters Pick the Oliveira vs. Makhachev fight.

See What Our Die-hard Sherbros Think...

Please read below for predictions, and scroll down to the very bottom for the results!

Sherdog's Own Picks

Hmmms... Well not the best breaking down scraps but what I see or feel will unfold.

Charles ends up on his back far too often which for him isn't an issue currently or least not as problematic as in the past. I mean he wants to be there and that's just where Islam wants to put folks.

Oli is the better striker but with Islam's defense not so sure it will be as big a factor. Oli doesn't fear the TD and will likely be open to more creative striking.

So on the ground it will be. I favor Oli only by a bit here even though his submission ratio is prolly twice that of Islam or more. Mind I'm going by recollection and not looking shit up till I get around to my tap picks. Well maybe a quick glance...

Opponent quality I give to Charles. His stable of wins I think is perhaps a bit more high level. Too many factors here to quantify easily and MMAMATH is what it is...

Oli by Sub Rd3 or 4.

@VinceArch

I really have a hard time picking this one, Charles is the proven BMF at 155 but I've seen too many slip ups where I'm feeling confident and he's either getting one shotted or tearing his esophagus. I think Islam's confidence is at the point where he believes in his capabilities to be champion and people like to suggest he only has one way to win, I think we'll see he's more diverse then people give him credit for. Phenomenal fight coming up, may the best man win.

I'm definitely thinking it's a toss up but gun to my head, pick one and I'm going with Islam.

@TempleoftheDog

I’m picking Charles. And I think the most likely path to victory against a wrestler of Islam’s ability is for him to get tagged and finshed by ground strikes. Charles is very confident, which gives me confidence in him. And he has a serious chip on his shoulder (the weight debacle). He has something he wants to prove.

Charles by tko in round 2.

@Dude Incredible

Charles wins. Sub Round 2.

I think Charles gets up(/defends) from Islams takedowns enough to frustrate him and give him openings in the first couple of rounds where he lands power shots into a submission of his own...If not, however, I think that Islam's pace will be something that can wilt Charles.

I have no idea what I'm talking about.

Dude Incredible

@Danespina

After Oliveria gets the better of some striking exchanges in the second round, Makhachev will more or less give the fight away by going for a sloppy takedown that doesn't cover his neck. See Guida and Lee for references.

Oh and for bonus points. After the win, Oliveria will give Islam a kiss.

@Doughie99

Oliveira vs Makhachev
A few stats first : Oliveira is on an 11fight win streak, Makhachev on a 10fight win streak.
- for his win streak Oliveira's method of victory : 3 KOs, 7 subs, 1 dec
- for his win streak Makhachev's method of victory: 2 KOs, 4 subs, 4 decs.
This is a tough fight to pick but I looked thru Oliveira's last 10 opponents and I really did not see anyone who is a full-blown elite grappler at all. So it's my view that Makhachev is a whole different ballgame for Oliveira & also I think that Makhachev's physical strength will surprise Oliveira. I don't see it going the distance and I think Oliveira's only realistic path is grabbing a sub ...but i still don't think that happens, Makhachev will see every sub attempt coming.

The way I see this fight ending is Makhachev wins via TKO (prob Ground-and-pound) in the 2nd or 3rd round.

@Siver!

The Pick: Islam Makhachev by Decision

Let's cut to the chase - this is potentially a very close fight between two elite fighters who are both on massive win streaks. Charles has been fighting at the top, top level and winning well, while Islam has been working his way up the rankings and, frankly, putting in increasingly impressive performances. For all the chatter about level of competition the two have fought and whether Islam could have done with beating a top 5 opponent, there's nothing about this fight that suggests it will be lopsided. It's a well-matched bout. If the fact Islam hasn't faced any of Chandler, Gaethje or Poirier means anything, it just makes a little bit harder to predict - it leaves a few questions left unanswered - and that can be uncomfortable for bettors.

There are a lot of ways this can go - Charles is the better striker of the two from everything I've seen, and lately he's been leaning on that to win some really brutal wars - his finishing ability (or his ability to put people in compromised positions with his strikes, thus setting up subs) has been out of this world - but a major component of Charles' game has been his durability, cardio and heart.

In all of do Bronx' fights with Chandler, Gaethje and Poirier, Charles had to weather the storm. Chandler had the fans riled up with 'USA, USA' chants, threatening with a guillotine and G'n'P. Gaethje beat the tar out of Charles for a round. Poirier was lighting Charles up at times, and again had a massive first round. I don't accept this is all down to Charles being a slow starter - he was facing beasts, and they got their licks in, fair and square. But in each of those fights, Charles out-lasted the lot of them, and came back stronger than ever, beating them up, and finishing them all. It's incredibly impressive, but it's not what I'm anticipating against Islam Makhachev. He won't empty his tank like that, he won't go for the blitz, and he won't tire himself out.

Makhachev utilises control rather than chaos to dictate fights. If he does come out looking to score a KO, which is possible, he'll quickly alter his approach if it isn't working. He'll seek the path of least resistance, and while it's hard to say what that will be against a fighter with good striker and superb grappling, he'll find a way to impose himself. I don't see Islam fading; he's looked endless at times, albeit when he's been at his most comfortable. Charles will threaten - he'll potentially land shots on the feet and he certainly will threaten with submissions on the ground - but I don't really see him scoring a flash sub or setting something up without Islam realising and making adjustments. If there's one aspect of Islam's game I think is water tight, it's submission defence from the top. That's where Islam will want to be in spite of Charles' dangerous ground game and ability to finish, and that's what he'll try to achieve.

I can see this fight playing out in such a way that rounds just slip away from Charles if he isn't able to land something big in the first round - which hasn't been his MO in recent fights. While we haven't really seen what happens when Islam gets busted up and keeps taking on damage, I don't see it playing out like that. I think we'll get a period of striking early, with Islam scoring a takedown, or scrambling and getting on top even if Charles takes him down - I see him shutting Charles down as best he can, and hopefully we get a fun couple of rounds of see-saw grappling. But eventually, I see Makhachev grinding Charles down. Working for subs, wearing him down, landing some G'n'P, making him work constantly - and I think he'll be able to do this in at least three of the five rounds en route to a decision victory.

@IngaVovchanchyn

Wow, such a tough fight to call imo. I have a lot of respect for Islam and think he has the tools to give anyone at LW problems, but I lean Charles here, based on his experience in these types of big fights and in that I think he has more ways to win. I think Oliviera hurts him standing and finishes him on the ground with strikes in the second or third.

@fortheo

Although my brain is telling me that Islam will smother Charles enough to win a decision or even get a late stoppage, I just can't shake the feeling that Charles will catch him with something. Charles's experience and his ability to finish fights in an instant is a huge X factor, and I just can't overlook that in this fight against a relatively untested Makhachev.

I'll go with my feeling on this one and pick Charles via tko round 3 after a dicey first two rounds.

@Iroh

Such a super interesting fight headlining such a damned great card!

Islam is control, Charles is chaos.
Charles has more weapons, but Islam has more defense.
Charles has fluidity and speed, Islam has stability and strength.
Charles has the power in his hands, Islam has the power in his grapplin'.
Charles has terrible eye sight and Islam has a breathing problem lol.

I expect them both to be supremely confident, which I think Islam hasn't encountered that much in his opponents. However, seeing how Charles has often been overlooked by his opponents, he has dealt with that before. Maybe not on the same level as Islam is, but still many have looked at his past losses and derived confidence from that. Whilst many of the opponents Islam has faced were already worried about the TD at the very start of the fight. So in that aspect I think there might be a dynamic or balance that Islam isn't all that used to. I think Charles is not afraid of the take down, which can help him both in the striking department and to an extent in the grappling too, as long as he has prepared extremely well for the, IMO, inevitable take down. Unless, of course, he gets clipped early and stopped by Olives, which is also a realistic outcome.

Dude has a great guillotine and with those bony long arms, he can slip under the chin and around the neck really fast and from unusual angles. So that's one weapon that can be used against the TD. Islam will have to be very careful with single and double legs. Khabib vs Poirier comes to mind.

If Charles can create a situation where Islam shoots for a TD, but in a somewhat compromised condition, he could use it to sweep or transition into a sub on the ground. Preferably, of course, it would be him rocking Islam what compromises him, but if Islam tries a TD (be it throw, trip, double, single, or whatever) from a bit of an awkward position, maybe because the heat on the feet will be too much for Islam, then I can see how Charles could use that to set up a submission. But only really if Charles has really prepped for creating those and dealing with those situations.
Otherwise, I think if Islam is able to secure a good position for a take down, it heavily favors him and I don't see him messing those grappling exchanges up any time soon, unless, again, Charles has a specific game plan to make him mess up and create an opening for himself. And even then if Charles goes for a sub on the ground with Islam, it will be a very risky strategy, because if Islam manages to get out of it, Olives might very well be fooked!

I think Islam could also sub Charles and with the way he controls his opponents, it's a much less risky strategy for him, than it is for Olives. But also kind of his only real strategy to win, besides a decision. But going 5 whole rounds leaves a lot of time for some of Olives' chaos to slip through the cracks of Islam's control. I think he definitely wants to minimize that and try to finish him when he can.

I think Charles should try to keep it i the center of the cage for as long as he can. Islam uses the cage well to restrict his opponents' options and control them and Olives, on the other side of the coin, can do a little more on the ground when there isn't a fence in the way. However, Olives did sub guys against the cage before, because he can twist that wirey frame of his in ways many other fighters can't, and sneak in submissions using little space. So maybe if it does end up against the cage in a grappling exchange, that could mean a little false sense of security for Islam. Although, I'm not too sure how much that will be a factor in reality.

With the way Charles comes forth and Islam needs to come close enough for a TD, I think that the first one who slips up a bit will get exploited for it immediately. And with Charles being the more chaotic, pressure fighter, and Islam the more calm, controlling fighter. I think the odds are on Charles to slip up first. I really hope it doesn't happen, because I am rooting for Olives. But I'm going with Islam 55% - Olives 45%

Oh and last thing about the stand up, Islam's biggest weapon are his kicks at range, but I think Olives is very well equipped for dealing with those with his more MT stance and skills. And in boxing range I imagine Islam isn't going to try to strike all that much, but instead try to make sweet, sweet grapplin' love to Charles.

Ps. the mouth breathing bit isn't meant to shit on Islam, I'm just having a little fun with the incident with which I think we all are familiar, and it was the best nickname I could come up with.

@The_Renaissance

Firstly, I am convinced that the top-level Dagestani wrestlers are immune to BJJ. Khabib could've fought another 10yrs and not been submitted, in my opinion, and Islam is highly likely to be the same. I think he hits a takedown inside 1 minute of round 1 to prove a point and fearlessly hangs out in Oliveira's guard for the entire round. Round 2, rinse and repeat, and everyone will be highly impressed.

However, Charles' striking will be the defining factor IMO - Oliviera via TKO (knees, elbows and punches), Round 4. Oliveira, TKO, 4th round.

Gio · Oct 16, 2022

@Orochimaru 大蛇丸

I’m picking Islam, I think he will be able to take Oliveira down consistently and cut through Oliveira’s subs and sweeps. I think Islam will expend as little energy as possible on top while Oliveira attacks too much from bottom and gasses himself out by the 3rd round, then Islam will start turning up his offense and get a late finish or dominant decision.

I’m very 50/50 on this fight though, Islam hasn’t fought anyone that good so you have to predict how good he actually is which is hard to do… I’m fairly confident he will dominate the grappling, but the biggest thing I worry about with him is his striking defense in between takedowns, because I do expect Oli to get up at least once or twice early on and he will be very dangerous on the feet early in the fight.

I think the key for both guys is expending the least amount of energy possible in the early grappling exchanges. Whoever is able to do this will win the fight IMO… I just think Oli will attack from his back too much and gas himself out… if he conserves his energy early on his chances go up dramatically IMO.

@BFoe

Charles Oliveira is not hard to take down. And while he usually has his BJJ to fall back on, Islam is a phenomenal grappler and has never been submitted in MMA. Oliveira is the better of the two standing, and could certainly stop Islam with strikes—but we have to assume that’s the less likely outcome. I think Islam does to Oliveira what Islam does to most everyone. I’ll take Islam by decision.

@rorschach51

I think if Charles gets the better of the striking exchanges and force Islam to shoot is his best chance for a sub. Charles is a offensive genius, but I'm not sure how good his bbj D is. If Islam can get takedowns he sets up I think it will be a long night for Charles. If Charles can force him to defensively shoot it will probably be a early night.

I'm predicting Charles by 2nd round Sub.

@Question

I'm not that good at predictions tbh, especially ones where I like both guys and it sucks to see either lose here but I'm rooting for Charles in this one since him winning brings more entertainment to the division and would add more to his whole amazing underdog story.

For my official prediction, It's a hard one to pick since both guys are super skilled and dangerous however I gotta go with Islam getting done by third round submission after him winning the first two rounds by controlling Charles on the ground.

@HuskySamoan

I think for as long as Oliveira can push his pace this fight will be competitive. There are not great parallels to draw from for either fighter, Islam vs Mansour was the closest to Charles we've seen and that fight was a decade go. Charles vs Kevin Lee was the only large physically dominant wrestler Oliveira ever faced. I do feel Lee's ability up until his subsequent gassing to power out of all of Oliveira's submission attempts, sweeps and end up back on top should be a real concern for Do Bronx's chances in this fight.

I suspect we will see Islam adjust his takedown game, Islam was caught in guillotines off his single leg from Chris Wade and Arman Tsarukyan in his UFC career, the single leg being one of his go to takedowns which he often uses to initiate his chain wrestling and get his opponents backs to the cage but Charles has the record for the most guillotines in UFC history. Will this cause Islam to struggle to close the distance without the single leg? Will Islam work on keeping his head in on single legs? Will he respect the guillotine of Charles at all? The clinch isn't the most welcoming place to fight Oliveira either and while it was a long time ago we saw a strong clinch fighter in Mansour give Makhachev a lot of trouble with knees from the clinch in-between the takedowns Islam scored.

Once on the mat, I have a hard time seeing Charles able to get up without expending crazy amounts of energy, probably just to be taken down again. I do feel while Oliveira is fresh his guard will be competitive and formidable vs Islam, especially since we've usually seen Charles fold to the pressure of ground and pound on the mat in the past and Islam hardly throws punches while on top. I do think Islam's trips and throws often open him up to exposing his back more than singles and doubles do but I do expect him to have enough control to avoid that from Oliveira unless Oliveira is able to create some amount of chaos. I suspect Makhachev will be putting extra emphasis on his body lock takedowns in terms of positional awareness so that he can land in half guard or side control to help mitigate the threat of Charles guard.

Standing will be interesting, Islam is very good at staying on the outside in striking exchanges and forcing his opponents to commit so he can find openings for his takedowns and just get ahold of guys in general. Islam likes managing range and being very defensively responsible, he has not allowed anyone to really pressure him standing even guys like Davi Ramos who he avoided the grappling exchanges with for the better part of the first ten minutes of their fight or Arman Tsarukyan who was able to defend, reverse and scramble effectively for the first ten minutes of their fight and Arman Tsarukyan I consider a great striker but he couldn't find much success vs Islam on the feet either. Now a short notice 22 year old Arman and Davi Ramos are not Charles Oliveira, they aren't as aggressive or multidimensionally dangerous standing at range, in the pocket and from the clinch with impressively diverse strike selection. I think Charles can make Islam uncomfortable, create moments of chaos, force Islam to make decisions but will he be able to capitalize in a big enough way to finish the fight? Will he be able to continue doing this in deep waters? Islam's never had anyone come at him the way I suspect Charles to, it will be interesting to see but I do think the takedown will almost always be there for Islam regardless.

Cardio is the huge one though, Islam really does drown guys. Guys like Arman and Wade were able to keep up and be competitive in wrestling exchanges more than most but by the third round it was all Islam, every fight with Islam he is becoming progressively more dominant with each passing minute. Can Charles keep up with that? I think Charles will have moments of success and make Islam look more human than past opponents have but will he be able to keep that up in the 3rd? the 4th? the 5th? All of Charles title fights have ended inside the first two rounds so we really haven't seen how much he's progressed in this regard but the pace he's putting on vs guys like Poirier, Chandler and Gaethje doesn't strike me as something sustainable over 5 rounds. When it comes to cardio unless given reason to think otherwise, I expect the man on bottom carrying the weight to gas first. But Islam's game is all about control, perhaps when he's pushed by an offensive dynamo his cardio will look less than impervious.

There is a question of how much has Charles's takedown defense really improved? He's been working with Alireza Noei for the last 4 years but in most of his past fights he welcomed the takedown and guys of recent have tended to avoid the ground with him altogether, perhaps he will be better at defending takedown attempts than we suspect if he actually sees a need to. Takedown defense and cage wrestling has been the primary focus from all of his training footage I have seen as of late but I honestly think the biggest benefit from that is probably conditioning so his cardio can keep up with Islam's but also identifying openings and positional awareness. I don't suspect his takedown defense will be a deciding factor in this fight though, I'd be very surprised if it was.

I think for the first two rounds Oliveira is going to press forward on the feet and pressure Islam in a way that will cause a sense of urgency wherever he can, in those moments there will be opportunities for Charles followed by getting tied up against the cage or being taken down. Once the fight hits the mat I think Charles will constantly attack and Islam will look to defend, control and pass. I think by the 3rd round of a very exciting and technical battle we will see the element of Islam's control become more prominent, and take over the fight while Charles's offensive output and resistance will be visibly waning. Charles will begin to lay flat on his back and attack less, breaking mentally inch by inch. It will be easier for Islam to pass and get more work done. I'm picking Islam Makhachev by 4th round Submission.

@TCE

I have to go with Charles here. Not only have I bet against him in every one of his last few fights, and he's absolutely pulled through each time... but in this fight, I really do feel he will have the edge. He can strike, and is completely in his world on the ground, whether on top or bottom, he is a genius. Islam will get lit up on the feet, Islam will take him down, and get subbed with either an armbar or triangle choke. I reckon the third round. I haven't seen enough of Islam's striking to put him anywhere near Charles' level. His wrestling and grappling is amazing, but I think Charles snatches up an arm or neck when it hits the ground.

@Ares Black

This is an especially hard fight to predict because my head and my heart are telling me two very different things.

My head says that Makhachev will take down Oliveira and grind him into a fine paste. My heart wants Oliveira to catch him with a big shot and knock him into the first row.

Full disclosure, I have picked against Charles Oliveira three times in a row, and I've been very wrong three times in a row.

I've learned my lesson and I'm going with my heart. After surviving significant early adversity, Oliveira catches Makhachev and finishes him.

Oliveira by TKO, Round 2.

@BoxerMaurits

Charles will get the better of Islam standing, resulting in Islam trying to take Charles down. He might succeed, Charles got some nasty clinchwork using elbows and knees, but Islam might succeed taking Charles down (it’ll not go easy though, and that might frustrate Islam)

When the fight hits the ground with Islam on top, he’ll bank some control time, but he won’t be able to do any significant damage imo (also because of the threat that Charles possesses from his back. Islam might even get in some dangerous positions trying to hurt Charles).

At some point they will go back to a standing fight. Then again, Islam had a hard time taking Charles down and controlling him on the ground, so he’ll be hestitant to shoot again.
I think Charles catches Islam at some point after a hard fought gritty fight. He drops him, resulting in Charles getting on Islam and submitting him.

The fight will be close because they’re very evenly matched. Islam is well-rounded, but I think he lacks finishing ability (for Charles) to finish him, while Charles can finish Islam standing or on the ground.
No outcome will surprise me, but I’ll go with Charles W by sub. R4

@Arqueto

First up, this fight is going to be awesome whatever happens as either guy can win, it's so close. The first couple of rounds will be key because Charles could take Islam out early as he is the better striker and is more aggressive but if Islam can take him down early and control the fight the longer the fight goes the more I favour Islam.

I'm leaning towards Islam by decision because he's the better wrestler.

@Paynebringer

A lot of great analysis I'm reading thus far don't think I can add any newer insights. First up I'm a fan of both men but I lean more towards Oliveira in this match up I feel Charles is much more well rounded as a mma fighter and looks to have ironed out much of those holes and wrinkles he had in his fight game over the years.

I see Islam coming out hard and heavy with the the pressure trying to keep Charles on his heels I just see Charles using that pressure against Islam. I can see Islam getting Charles to the ground and trying to use that patented Dagestani pressure wrestling to grind Oli and Oliveira welcoming it waiting for Islam to leave a limb loose turn or angle the wrong way then locks him up in some sort of submission.

With all that said I do think Islam's best shot for the win is on the ground standing I think Charles is much better striking & kicking but Charles does have the tendency to get clipped.

Oliveira by submission 4th round.

@Bobby Boulders

This is a very intriguing matchup, maybe the most interesting matchup, stylistically, in years in a fight with a belt on the line. Islam hasn't shown much weakness as a wrestler, which makes it hard to bet against him. However, Charles isn't worried about the fight hitting the canvas, he has the most submission wins in UFC history. I think his lack of concern with where the fight takes place will allow him to take chances on the feet, and I believe Oliveira wins by (T)KO

@Ladder Master

Islam Makhachev wins via decision.

We have a super high level match in Charles Vs Islam. This one is really tough to call. I think Islam will weather the first few rounds of Charles standup, and play it safe by avoiding Charles' guard.

Islam has not been submitted before and I don't think he will at UFC 280. Islam gets top control in round 3 and begins to wear him down. Round 4 and 5 are same as Islam takes over and Olives tires. I cound see rounds 4 and 5 being pretty boring, with Islam securing the takedowns and being conservative. He does doing enough to win
3 rounds and the belt.

That being said, it would be pretty badass and a huge accomplishment to sub Islam, and see Charles extend his win streak. I am really looking forward to this match.

Gio · Oct 16, 2022

@KazDibiase

The champ have a name.

@Safton

I have gone back and forth on this. There was a time when I was not fully "sold" on Oliveira's greatness. I thought was just going to be another contender at Lightweight. Back in the day (i.e. about a year and a half ago) I thought he would just help keep the title warm by passing it around between some combination of himself, Poirier, Gaethje, Chandler, Dariush, and Conor like a game of hot potato -- with none of the men managing to get more than one title defense at most until Islam inevitably climbed the ranks and granted some level of stability to 155. If anyone was going to match or surpass Khabib's dominance or title defense streak in my mind it was Islam. To say that I have changed my mind would be an understatement -- not necessarily about Islam, but about Charles. Do Bronx has more than shown that he can deal with adversity in his last few fights. And while I see this as close to a 50/50 contest -- and I can't get behind anyone with particularly strong opinions of dominance from either athlete -- I am backing Oliveira.

I think Oliveira will attempt to walk Makhachev down from the start with his striking, though at a slightly more tepid pace than usual as he will be cognizant of the takedown threat. I think Islam's technical counter-striking and Charlie's hittable nature will allow himself to acquit himself well in the stand-up in the opening frames of the fight and he might even rock/drop Charles -- and unlike most fighters, he'll follow him to the ground. However, Charles's immense pressure will likewise be a departure from what he is often used to and may even make him uncomfortable at times -- and I wouldn't be particularly surprised if Oliveira attempted a cheeky takedown or guard-pull of his own in order to get the fight to the ground on something akin to his terms. I suspect Charles will have to survive some early adversity as it seems he inevitably always does, with Islam on top of him and showing positional dominance, landing GnP, shutting down his sweeps, and winning rounds. However, as times goes on I think Do Bronx's mettle, creativity, and experience will show through at some point. He'll start to make reads on the feet and the mat and find openings: utilizing the SLX guard he used against Kevin Lee to solid effect (even though he wasn't able to sub a fresh Lee, he won those early rounds and had him in constant submission danger), elevating him with butterfly hooks as Arman did, and threatening guillotines. Some time towards the middle to latter stages of the fight, I think Oliveira will seize his opportunity and not let go in the form of a resounding submission finish. I think Islam is too positionally sound in this stage of his career to get caught in a submission from guard outright, so I believe it'll either happen during a wild transition/scramble that Do Bronx creates or after he rocks Makhachev on the feet and then pounces on him. I don't think Islam will tap, either.

My official prediction: Do Bronx via Rd 3 Technical Submission (Some kind of choke)

@GearSolidMetal

Given alot of thought to this, and here's my prediction.

After being a consistent doubter of Oliveria for years, he's earned my respect.

I went 0-4 in predicting he would LOSE against everyone from Kevin Lee to Dustin Poirier, and making NO prediction in his fight against Justin... he smokes him in the 1st round.

Not only is his BJJ quite possibly the best we've ever seen in MMA, but he is amazingly sneaky with his strikes. Hell, he TKO Chandler after getting 10-8ed in the 1st round.

Now looking at Makhachev, he's basically the blueprint of the type of fighter that would be Oliveria's kryptonite, right? Others in this PM and in the Heavies have broken it down better than I ever will.

So, lets get to the prediction... and I'm not making one.

This is about as 50/50 as it gets because Oliveria is a survivor in the Octagon. He's gotten his hand raised over so many fighters that, in my opinion, are overall better than him that I can't say 'Oh Makhachev is better than him, so he's going to win.' Oliveria even gets in very dangerous situations in the 1st round of many of his fights and survives them to eventually win.

So, although Makhachev is theoretically better than Oliveria in many ways, this is Oliveria's #1 advantage -

So many fighters have broken under the pressure of a 5-round UFC main event title fight. It not just the opposing fighter, but the stress. Oliveria is actually relaxed in there, he's comfortable, he's experienced. He's shown he's been able to shine in extremely stressful situations in these fights, survive them, and eventually win. Don't think I've ever seen another fighter do that better than Oliveria.

With Makhachev... we haven't seen in any 5-round main events in front of huge crowds. That is pressure. He's been so aggressive and dominant in practically all of his fights we haven't seen how he'd react when his he's not in a dominant position.

So, my prediction is.... this won't be another Makhachev smesh session like practically every other of his fights in the UFC have gone. The only question is will it still be dominant enough to get the win.

@MXZT

Well when I look at this upcoming fight. Both men have incredible winning streaks. Charles winning streak is much more impressive, when you consider the murderers row of fighters he's fought.

I think Charles pathway to victory is if he keeps it standing. I believe he has the advantage on that aspect of the game. He can easily KO/TKO Islam I feel. I also think he can pull off a guillotine if he times it perfectly with Islam attempt to take down Oliveira.

As for Islam his path to victory is to try trip or take down Oliveira. And than do his Khabib like smothering and breaking down of Oliveira, slowly but surely perhaps catching him in a submission or or maybe a GnP KO/TKO.

My pick is Oliveira, he has just more ways to win and has much more experience with elite fighters. So saying all that may the best man win. Can't wait! Oliveira KO/TKO round 1.

@Mohawk Banditó

Despite the combined 42 UFC fights to use as notes, I still feel like a home-schooled chemistry student, predicting the results of combining 2 random highly reactive elements, and I'm just as excited. Normally, you can break down the most minute detail of "how fighter a likes to use this pass and how fighter b has responded to this pass" type of comparisons, but it doesn't feel like the variables between their opponents and past fights are all that commensurate. Perhaps it's a criticism of their comparative talent pools, or perhaps it's both compliment to and evidence of how fighters can change and grow, and how pointing out Islam's past KO loss, or Charles' past caving to pressure ultimately mean little-to-nothing to the two men stepping into the octagon. Neither have fought anyone as good as the other in the respective threats they bring, so no result should surprise me, but I still hope this experiment turns into a bang. Islam's grappling leans slightly more-submission based than "smesh" for my liking in this particular match-up, but it's still not a bad bet to take. Though I wouldn't be surprised if Charles wins, and my mom gives me an F on this assignment.

@UFCIsNOTRigged

Islam Makhachev from my vantage point is a superior technical striker. He keeps a high guard, does a good job making opponents pay on the counter, and never takes on excess risk during striking exchanges. It may not be flashy, but it serves its primary purpose of keeping opponents defensive. I believe Makhachev is confident in his abilities on the feet and will opt to strike with Oliveira initially, rather than immediately pursue a takedown, just as he did when facing decorated submission grappler Davi Ramos.

In contrast, I believe Oliveira will immediately try to take the fight to the ground, as he correctly understands that he holds a significant submission grappling advantage. Makhachev does not have a diverse arsenal of submissions to attack Oliveira with, has a propensity for being swept by opponents, and leaves himself vulnerable to guillotines and armbars due to his head and arm positioning. There also aren’t many instances of Makhachev punishing opponents in the UFC with particularly brutal ground and pound despite his reputation for it. Both fighters are capable of winning and deserving of respect.

Official Prediction: Charles Oliveira by technical submission via guillotine choke.

@Kyojiro Kagenuma

I am also taking Charles. I believe he is the more proven fighter and has faced the pressure of a championship fight before. He is unlike anyone Islam has ever faced. I think Charles is gonna clip him and either submit him on the ground or tko him.

@Dreyga2000

I think Olivera’s offensive grappling is amazing but his defense isn’t quite on the same level. Think Islam does what he does to everyone else to Olivera. Hope I’m wrong though. Nothing would make happier than Olivera finishing Islam

@Jose Beehive

Do Bronx Bless,

What I would like to happen=
First round some serious boop boop, pace is frantic, very early Charles turns it up a gear and get's Islam to the ground with sneaky trip or aggressive slam, Olives RNC win ensues.. The Champ Has a name, and it's Charles Oliveira da Silva.

How it'll probs go down, my pick=
We'll see some dominant grappling control from Islam, jab will become effective on the feet for him, Islam's game-plan solid & cardio on-point, Charles tires from ineffective striking Islam soaks up and eats, Do Bronx resorts to being too comfortable on his back, failed triangle after triangle, failed armbar after armbar, but Islam hustles the uncontroversial win in relatively straight forward fashion, Sherdog breaks.. The Champ Has a name, and it's Islam Ramazanovich Makhachev.

@Sixstring

I'm going with Islam for the win. I think he will be fighting technical and smart. Islam will probably dominate with his grappling and take no chances. He will grind out a win by staying on top and not letting Oliveira implement his game plan.I think there's a good chance that something like that could happen but it could easily go the other way. I just think it's going to be Islam's night and he's going to fight at 110%.

And if that sounds stupid, please edit it and make me sound like I know what I'm talking about!

@Grill master

Grilly has Islam winning this fight in an epic ground classic. I see Charles starting with a controlled temper from range while Islam won't hesitate to push the fight against the cage. Once it hits the canvas it's going to he scramble city with Charles going for submissions off the back and Islam throwing Dagestani hammers at every opening.

Islam will have the resolve to defend the onslaught of Oliveria triangle and arm bar attempts while the Bleach Blonde Brazilian Legend won't be able to sustain the pace and pressure past 3 rounds, I predict Islam wins the fight by stoppage in a fight that is proves Islam is legit and worthy of champion status.

Grilly's prediction is Islam by TKO in round 4.

@Wormwood

I'm going to say Charles...in the first...by ko/tko!! I totally respect Islam as a fighter, and have no doubt he can win this fight with his unbelievable skill set. In fact, I think Charles is the type of fighter Islam can capitalize on because Charles gets aggressive (some may say reckless) from the bell...leaving Islam a lot of openings to implement his gameplan even easier. But...I'm going with Charles because of all the failures and disappointments he's had until now.

Some critics say once a quitter, always a quitter... which may be true for some. Some quitters will always be quitters... but quitters don't become champions in one of the most difficult divisions in the UFC. To me it means Charles, failed, failed failed...failed himself, failed his team, failed his family time and time again, but kept getting back up and digging deeper and deeper and deeper each time.

There are two types of champions. Those who only know dominance because they are truly blessed with ability and train ruthlessly. They rarely, if ever, taste failure. They are amazing to watch. Then there are those who if at any time, succumbed to their shortcomings and inner doubts, would go on to be forgotten by most. But because each failure made them grow, they become a champion forged by overcoming pain and disappointment... and in that sense, it makes them stronger because they can look back and see the inner tenacity and perseverance that was always within them, Charles, I'm predicting, will come out as calm, confident, skilled and ready as we have ever seen him... and he will get the job done in one.

That's what my heart says because my mind doesn't have the mma knowledge to back any of this up

Cheers to my Sherbros!

@Peruvian Necktie

Made this Islam vs Charles hype shoop.

Feel free to use if you think it's dope. Cheers

I’ve got Makhachev by submission.
Posted a $50 betslip in the betting thread

Gio · Oct 16, 2022

Sherdog's Own Staff Picks

@Peteyandjia

Chucky Olives via champion level grit, & superior experience against high-level competition.

Islam is no easy walkthrough though, so no dishespect to him. A worthy contender.

@Zebra Cheeks

I think I initially was leaning towards Islam in this matchup. But I do genuinely feel that Charles has more paths to victory. I think Islam NEEDS to get a takedown, because Charles has better striking, where as Charles doesn’t NEED to do anything because he’s a threat on the feet, and on the ground.

Give me Olives r4 ko

@Jackonfire

I'll keep it simple. I really don't have much else to add that hasn't already been said. I'm going with my gut and I feel Olivera just has a chip on his shoulder and he feels like he still has something to prove. I'm picking Charles via tko in the second round.

@giovanni_ss

Islam mainly knows only one way to win a fight and that's to get your opponent to the ground and work on a finish, and he almost never fails. He's very strong, technical, got a very good team behind him and is excellent in following their gameplan and his corner's advice. If he could stay on it and avoid chaos, he wins most likely and could make this look easy.

On the other hand, Charles is a completely different fighter now. He's got a burning fire within him and is dangerous everywhere. He has the much more experience being in main events, under the bright lights where everything is on the line with his back against the wall, and he's proven he would always come out on top. He can knock guys down with his power, very opportunistic, fast, and slick in scrambles and off his back and is lethal with his submission game.

Both these two deserve to win, but I'm leaning towards Charles experience-wise, 60-40, 3rd round finish.

@Substance Abuse

This is obviously one of the most anticipated bouts on this forum in recent memory, with rabid fan bases going over the top arguing for both Islam and Oliveira like rabid dogs, no verbal stone unturned to hate on each fighter and their fans.

And with good reason: Simply put, these are the two most talented men in their division.

Islam Makhachev has moved beyond the idea that he is solely Khabib Nurmagomedov's protégé, his resume standing on it's own merit as he is currently on a ten fight win streak with four consecutive finishes. Oliveira himself has garnered more notoriety, rising like a Phoenix from the ashes of an exciting, yet uneven career that had seen a few highs and many lows, but one that seemingly wouldn't culminate in top tier success, yet it has. Now riding high on an eleven fight win streak with ten finishes - some over the best and biggest names in the division - he currently is the owner of the record for most submissions in a career by a UFC fighter, earning a dedicated following as an action fighter who has shown he can overcome adversity in the process.

This is an incredibly difficult fight to pick. Charles has an obvious striking advantage offensively. He's a better submission grappler. He's shown he's comfortable retreating looking to counter or being aggressive and trying to secure a finish. He's been through so much and seen so many things, that his ability to maintain composure, seemingly unlikely in the past, is now a strength. Charles has every right to be confident too. He's shown his growth and mettle in his most recent bouts. No one can question that the guy is an absolute warrior.

Islam on the other hand appears even more dominant than Charles has been recently, albeit against weaker competition. He's an incredibly strong grappler with an active, smothering top game that he uses to position himself properly, trying pass, holding onto limbs and applying unyielding pressure. While not as successful and creative as a submission finisher than Charles, he has shown his pressure is enough to break people down standing in the clinch or on the ground, and his movement and control, derived from technique and strength, is enough to allow him to pummel you to open up submissions and he can create what isn't there through ground strikes until something opens up. And while Islam's detractors on this forum have fallen in love with the Martins knockout gif, that happened a lifetime ago in fight years, and his defense has improved immensely, with competent striking, a tucked chin and more awareness of incoming offense so he can ply his trade up close and get you to the ground.

For Charles, I think the fight comes down to whether or not his risk taking and incessant offense is enough to create opportunity, and if he hits the ground, is his guard good enough to catch Islam? And for Islam, can he successfully ride out top control and avoid the threat while working in Oliveira's guard, or not get clipped standing or overwhelmed by the incoming offensive onslaught Charles can bring. We know Islam is going to look to take this to the ground. He's going to try to use a club and sub mentality if he can dominate position long enough to tire Oliveira out or just beat his down with his fists. Oliveira may be active off of his back, but can he really lock something up on someone so strong, aware and technically sound?

I know Charles will throw and look for the knockout. I know he will attempt submissions off of his back if he's taken down. He will do everything he can to try to win this fight, and between the submission finishing ability and striking advantage he has, Olives has more ways to win this fight. That said, I don't think he will.

This fight will hit the ground. Islam will more than likely dominate control and let Charles tire himself out until he can ride out top or pummel him to a finish. Charles will attack early and often, looking to create opportunity through offensive activity and diversity, but I don't think he finds it. I understand it isn't wise to doubt Charles who has seemed like a fight finishing Houdini, pulling wins out of a hat regardless of what has happened up to that point, but being dynamic, exciting and creative doesn't always beat out technically sound and incredibly strong meat and potatoes (by comparison). If I had to pick, I would take Islam by decision or TKO on thy ground in the third.

@PurpleStorm

This the two best in their division and two of the most exciting fighters in the UFC. A genuine super fight. Can't wait to see how it plays out.

It's tough finding weaknesses in either of their games. I recently watched Oliveira vs. Gaethje and Islam vs. Green to get more pumped up. Their styles are so different. Islam is technically precise and amongst the best wrestlers we've seen since Khabib. Thus far he hasn't even taken much damage. Once he gets superior position he doesn't make mistakes. Over the course of his last 10 fights Oliveira has remade himself into a savage. He has fought the best of the best and showed he can take hits but not be knocked out and come back even harder. He's a great grappler with a willingness to hit, get hit and come out on top.

Thus far we haven't seen Islam face much adversity. I think he will get some in this fight. I think Oliveira will drag him into deep waters.

Olives by round four submission.

@Oku

I've been thinking about this one for a while. So yeah my prediction is similar to Jack's prediction.

Do Brox will win this one in the 2nd round via KO/TKO

@Jackie Blue

I've got Charles Oliveira by 1st round submission after he hurts Islam with strikes. Think they call it a club and sub.

@HockeyBjj

Oliviera for me. Islam has never faced someone who would come forward. That’s normally a death sentence vs a wrestler. But Olives won’t care and will come forward with his pressure.

A shot from a guy who’s actually eating punches is significantly worse than a shot from a guy who knows the opponent is too timid to commit to said punches in fear of getting timed. I don’t even think we’ll see Olives fighting off his back against Islams wrestling. I think Olives will be able to do some offer the single twist outs like Aldo was master of.

2nd round TKO by Olives would be my official prediction

@Strychnine

Olivera is a GAMER! He goes in hard, and he goes in for the kill. It's the irresistible force vs. the immovable object!

That being said, Islam lives by the "SMESH". Yes! You can have impeccable BJJ but that gets nullified by your opponent going into "SMESH" mode with only you tapping out or the Ref pulling them off of you.

Yes! There is always a place for technique and Olivera IS the tactician in this fight, but when faced with "smesh" blows coming at you left, right, and center? It's enough to overwhelm anyone's BJJ defense. Then, it becomes a battle of who has the better standup/takedown defense.

I'm going to go with Islam on this one via overwhelming SMESH application. I could be wrong as they are both world-class fighters and it's going to be a sight to see either way!

Islam by SMESH.

@Islam Imamate (f.k.a Khabib Khanate)

For me, Charles have big chance in this fight for sure
<BC1>

My unironic prediction is Islam 55-45, I sincerely do think Charles have big chance.

@Bullitt68

I'm going to go with Islam. They've both been looking stellar, but stylistically, I have an easier time seeing Islam controlling Oliveira and at least winning a decision if not pounding him out than I do seeing Oliveira pulling out a submission or winning on points. So my pick is Islam.

@Slobodan

I don't have anything to add that hasn't been said already. I wouldn't be surprsied if Islam wins but I pick Oliviera for this one by third round finish.

@helax

Mak TKO 3. I think Charles will be willing to try and grapple with Mak which will eventually lead to him tiring enough for Mak to get a dominant position where he will hit Charles until the ref steps in

@JayPettryMMA

Never before in the UFC have we seen two fighters battle it out with opposing 10-fight win streaks or higher, until UFC 280's main event. Charles Oliveira has been a veritable wrecking machine since solving the issues that plagued him for years, while also developing stopping power in his hands that have led to some of the most memorable performances in divisional history. His resume speaks for itself, and his recent five-victory run of Kevin Lee, Tony Ferguson, Michael Chandler, Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje may be the toughest of any outside of Jon Jones' incredible stretch of Shogun-Rampage-Machida-Evans-Belfort. While still susceptible to power punchers on the feet, his recoverability is sensational and finishing ability is historic. Hit him hard, and he'll hit you back even harder. Should an advantageous position present itself, he will swarm for the submission and most likely get it.

Islam Makhachev took the one-hitter quitter from Adriano Martins in 2015 and never looked back, employing a suffocating type of wrestling allowing him to land takedowns in eight of his last 10 fights -- and one of those exceptions is because he punched out Gleison Tibau in a minute. The level of competition is not nearly as impressive as Oliveira's, with Dan Hooker (#6 at the time) likely Makhachev's highest-ranked adversary to date. Still, he has not lost more than a single round on any judge's scorecard in his last 10 outings, with a level of dominance that draws obvious and not-entirely-accurate comparisons to teammate Khabib Nurmagomedov. Could he replicate that kind of success against anyone in the top five at lightweight? What happens when takedowns don't come as easily, or when he finds himself threatened by the man off his back? Questions used to loom large for Oliveira, but he has largely answered them. This is the time for Makhachev to answer those, although he has a murderer's row of future matchups should he get past "Do Bronx."

The onus will be on Makhachev to maintain top pressure without falling victim to a sweep, reversal or submission setup. The decision to hunt for submissions while on top, or search for his traditionally destructive ground-and-pound, may yet work to his disadvantage. Oliveira is not instantly lethal with his back on the floor as others, where taking them down is a liability a la Demian Maia, but he is active and always busy should he end up there. Tiring Oliveira out in wrestling -- and not grappling where submissions are part of the equation -- exchanges will be crucial, to take some of the venom out of his strikes and attacks. Makhachev will need to be in this for the long haul, while Oliveira presents immediate and constant danger for at least three full rounds. With more ways to win, Oliveira (+185!) is perhaps the most live underdog this side of Derrick Lewis, and it is almost surprising that he is not favored given that no one has outworked him on the mat since Frankie Edgar back in 2014, before Oliveira became the wrecking ball he is today. The finish for Oliveira will materialize within three rounds, and if Makhachev decides to test things out on the feet early on, it might be sooner than that. Whether by club-and-sub or just from fists of fury by the Brazilian, Oliveira will become champion again, and Nurmagomedov will be watching this one very closely. Could that challenge lure Khabib out of retirement? Perhaps.

*Credits to @Augustus Caesar for the thread idea
This one is a tribute to him.

Gio · Oct 16, 2022

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Results...

Charles Oliveira (29 Votes) 57% | @JayPettryMMA @Wormwood @Danespina @TCE @Safton @BoxerMaurits @Ares Black @Paynebringer @Kryptt @Dude Incredible @TempleoftheDog @IngaVovchanchyn @rorschach51 @Bobby Boulders @fortheo @Kyojiro Kagenuma @The_Renaissance @UFCIsNOTRigged @MXZT @KazDibiase @Zebra Cheeks @Slobodan @Peteyandjia @HockeyBjj @Jackonfire @Jackie Blue @giovanni_ss @PurpleStorm

Islam Makhachev (21 Votes) 41% | @Sixstring @Grill master @Iroh @Jose Beehive @HuskySamoan @Ladder Master @VinceArch @Mohawk Banditó @Doughie99 @Question @Orochimaru 大蛇丸 @BFoe @Arqueto @Dreyga2000 @Peruvian Necktie @Siver! @helax @Islam Imamate @Bullitt68 @Strychnine @Substance Abuse

Toss Up (1 Vote) 2% | @GearSolidMetal
Total Number of Picks: 51

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With which poster do you agree the most? Please comment below and post your picks too!

Siver! · Oct 16, 2022

Somebody get the stocks, I'll bring the rotten fruit!

Can't believe @GearSolidMetal went for a toss up!!

podsox · Oct 16, 2022

I’ve been in an mma lull for about 2 months. First time in ages. I am so pumped for Saturday! Let’s go charles

BFoe · Oct 16, 2022

Thanks @giovanni_ss

I’m kind of wavering a bit on whether Islam gets the finish rather than the decision, but I feel pretty solid in picking him to win. Should be a banger fight though, lessss gooooo
<{JustBleed}>

Joshuaace · Oct 16, 2022

Cool thread @giovanni_ss, thanks for compiling this. Hope you don't get merged<45>

Mohawk Banditó · Oct 16, 2022

Too many niceties up in here, not enough oppositionalism going around. I feel like compiling Team A vs Team B picks as well. Was wondering when you guys would show your faces
<codychoke>

I'll probably do that after I get home tonight. G'luck to all

Post 2 Decision · Oct 16, 2022

Charles Oliveira
KO
Round 1

Zebra Cheeks · Oct 16, 2022

This is gonna be a huge fight night and I’m very excited to have fun with the boys in the pbp.

Both of these fighters are super talented. I picked Charles but I really have no idea who wins. <BronTroll1>

GearSolidMetal · Oct 16, 2022

Siver! said:
Can't believe @GearSolidMetal went for a toss up!!

I did, and I throughly explained why.

This is about as 50/50 as it gets for me.

Everyone that'd put down significant money on this fight will be doing so by purely fangirling for one fighter and not knowing the abilities of the other.

EDIT - I'll predict THIS.

This fight isn't going to a decision.

That's a safe bet for 5 reasons.
*Islam has 6 finishes in his 10-fight streak, and his last 4 fights have been finishes. (All 4 decisions were 3-round fights)
*Charles has 10 finishes in his 11-fight streak.
*Islam has only seen a 4th round once, and never in a 5th round in his entire career.
*Charles has never seen a 4th round in his entire career (4 scheduled 5-round fights [I believe]), much less a 5th round or a 5-round decision.
*Both fighters 5-round gas tank is completely questionable. Given their records for finishing its an easy prediction that someone is going to break.

PhilMcCavity · Oct 16, 2022

Islam is the most 1 dimensional fighter in the top 10 of any weight class. Chuck by ko

Psychojoe86 · Oct 16, 2022

I see Islam going for a takedown early, and Oliveira will oblige him on the ground. From there, I expect a wild exchange of grappling to occur because Oliveira will use an active guard to battle against Islam. Eventually, I believe the round will end with a possible Islam 10-9

round 2 I believe Oliveira will ko Islam standing right away. There is a sting that Charles delivers at some point in his matches, and I think Islam will be more composed after a first round passes, leaving him vulnerable to getting caught playing kickboxing too long.

my pick = Oliveira ko round 2

Question · Oct 16, 2022

This is amazing man, thanks for letting me be part of this thread.
I can't wait for saturday now.

rorschach51 · Oct 16, 2022

Hey it's up! Thanks for all your hard work @giovanni_ss and all mods who put in all this work over the last week plus. It was a honor to be picked to give my meager take

MeatWagon06 · Oct 16, 2022

WAR Do Bronx!

2nd RD Finish.

VinceArch · Oct 16, 2022

102222-ufc-280-oliveira-vs-makhachev-event-announcement-abu-dhabi.jpg

LoveMyMMA · Oct 16, 2022

Just get rid of the toss-up poll option.

Sherdog's Own Picks for UFC 280: Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev

Who's your pick to win and how?

Charles Oliveira

Islam Makhachev

It's a toss up

Wendy Belt

Wendy Belt

Wendy Belt

Wendy Belt

Wendy Belt

Spinning Back Kick Belt

Gold Belt

Steel Belt

27X World Geezer Belt Champion

Gold Belt

Banned

Cheeky Bastard

Plutonium Belt

Yellow Card

Black Belt

Just a friendly Sherdogger.

1970, 2020, 2023, 2024

Biting on Feints

I am all of me.

lovemymma

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