There's no science to it. The people who are supposed to win will lose and vice versa.
When you understand that you'll understand why you can't sports bet long term.
But you can absolutely bet long term, it's just a job.
@Iamwill43119
1. You need to be pragmatic and unemotional, if you don't have the funds to bet or the disposition, you should not do it.
2. Study study study. You need to do a lot of tape study. Follow fighters camps to the best of your abilities via social media, training footage, their gyms, cross training, coaches, teammates etc. and stay super consistent with watching UFC and whatever other promotions your betting on. This means following injury history, fighters backgrounds, the weight cut process and so on.
3. I'd strongly suggest you train some amount. I hear a lot of people talk "statistics" but unless you have a comprehensive body of data to support certain things I wouldn't bother, a lot of times stats can be more misleading than helpful...sometimes fighters have amazing takedown defense % but bad takedown defense, sometimes fighters have long reaches but fight poorly from range etc. It's all super relative and you need an eye for talent, styles, strengths, weaknesses, identifying patterns. Training helps this honestly, you gain a different perspective and knowledge.
4. You need to learn what kind of betting works for you. There's people who bet cards, like they'll hedge, bet nearly the entire card etc. Some people bet less and drop more money when they do. You need to learn the lines, understanding when the odds drop if it's optimal to bet immediately before they get less in your favor or to wait until they swing even more in your favor. Some people like betting props, parlays, straight bets, live bets etc. I typically bet singular or small parlays and I don't bet often. Others bet so often they will throw money on someone they expect to lose just because the fight is still closer than the odds imply and overtime of them traking these kinds of bets they've found it is net positive.
In closing, I'm sure I missed a lot but it just takes time so bet small and take lots of notes and track everything, break it down and use your data to better your betting as you go and hold yourself accountable. There is no guide, it takes experience, knowledge, understanding. I think for me sometimes, just once in a while lines don't make sense and the bookies got it wrong/didn't do their homework, Saidyokub vs Ronnie Lawrence was that for me as I knew Saidyokub was a US Judo Champion and Sambo worlds Bronze Medalist and a Greco wrestler, he also had an undercard fight with Umar Nurmagomedov which was very competitive. Or Mansour Barnaoui vs Piccolotti in Bellator, Mansour wasn't ever in any major promotions and coming off a layoff but he was clearly one of the most talented LWs in the world, still young, and I saw him training hard at an elite MMA gym...No way Piccolotti had anything for him. These were big value as both guys were + money when they shouldn't have been. Best advice I got I suppose.
