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Disclaimer: This is not a confirmed fight. So while it may seem odd to breakdown a fight that isn't happening, it's largely a vehicle for me to practise technique and benefit my own training. I hope that it can benefit some of you guys too. Also please note this is the first analysis post I've made, so bare with me if it lacks focus.
This is a match up that could be a little difficult to make seeing as Sergio can't quite decide if he's a flyweight or a bantamweight, but I don't feel that there is a particularly big difference in size between these two fighters that would make this fight unfair.
First let's look at Sergio Pettis:
Height: 5'6
Record: 15 - 2
Most notable opponents: John Moraga (W), Chris Cariaso (W), Alex Carceres (L)
"Even little Sergio is looking for the head kick" ~ Duke Roufus
Sergio has had a rough time. Anthony Pettis' more baby faced brother is frequently compared to him. Common complaints targeted at Sergio are that he is simply not as good as his brother, standing in his shadow and that Anthony was performing better at Sergio's current age (although ironically Anthony once also sported a 15 - 2 record). Sergio's slower, more methodical fights don't live up to the crazy finishes that Showtime provides when he's on his A-game.
In truth though, while they are brothers, training partners and share the same striking coach, they are not that similar a fighter. While Anthony Pettis is the definition of an outside fighter, a man who hates opponents in the pocket and lives and dies by his body kick, Sergio Pettis deals a lot more favourably in the areas that his brother struggles in.
Sergio is perfectly happy to be up close and personal and throws in combination far more than his brother who rarely throws anything outside of a 1-2. This confidence up close has its draw backs, as while Sergio has good pacing when it comes to close-range fighting, he is very hittable. While a fighter like Rafael Dos Anjos will roll with the punches in close range, Sergio tends to just get hit. Needless to say this is what caused his loss against Ryan Benoit and has caused him trouble in many of his recent bouts:
That being said, Sergio is decent at fighting both from a distance and a reach disadvantage as evidenced in his frustrating fight with Alex Carceres in which he was convincingly winning all three rounds before getting submitted late in the third.
Much like you'd expect from a taekwondo black belt, he does have great timing on his high kicks which are on display in every fight, although outside of his first two fights at low level competition, he lacks any finishes with them. While his kicks aren't instant fight enders like Anthony Pettis, who tends to time them for when his opponent is out of position, Sergio is seemingly able to land a head kick more or less whenever he wants, in combination or on the counter.
To put it in simple terms. While Sergio can often seem less impressive than his brother it's often not that he is the inferior striker, but that he is more comfortable fighting at any range than his brother. The downside is that he still lacks the boxing craft to roll with the punches and change levels in order to keep him safer at that range.
While we all know about his highlight reel finishes, such as his flying knee strikes and grisly elbow KO's he has some very good offensive punching. While I'd hesitate to call him a good scientific boxer, he certainly knows how to make the most out of his combinations. While Brazilian kickboxers are often known for firing single pot shots a-la Alex Pereira, Thomas Almeida is constantly changing levels using combinations favoured by great dutch kickboxers and Muay Mat such as Pornsaneh:
What's important about this combination is not the eye catching low kick but actually the left hook to the liver that drops his opponent and has him falling before the kick even lands. This is what Almeida excels at. Digging to the body and constantly changing levels would make him most coaches dream student.
Those level changes, mixed with his rare ability to box with elbows (something you rarely see in traditional muay thai, let alone MMA) allows him to not only damage opponents along the fence but catch them coming in:
All in all we have a very unique and very frightening offensive striker. Someone who is able to attack in a myriad of different ways. He'll hook to the liver, throw right straights to the sternum and is scarily accurate with devastating, usually risky moves such as flying knees. What makes him terrifying is like Sergio Pettis, his timing is impeccable and he knows the perfect moment to strike.
So what is the downside? Well, not unlike Sergio Pettis he is very hittable. Part of this comes from his innate aggression and tendency to over commit on punches, and the other part is his awkward hand positioning which has left him vulnerable to left hooks throughout his career thus far. These flaws caused him trouble in not only in his lost to current champion Cody Garbrandt, but also in his fight with Brad Pickett, who I would describe as his best opponents to date.
These are two young men with very different approaches to fighting, Sergio Pettis is a boxer puncher, comfortable up close, at a range, at a reach advantage or disadvantage. He'll throw combinations and hooks and happily look for that head kick and nearly always lands it.
By contrast Almeida is a relentless pressure fighter, succeeding areas that Sergio doesn't very often attempt. While Sergio is slow and methodical, Almeida seems to just "do". Almeida is the sort of fighter who has had strategy and technicality drilled into him to the point where he's fighting on instinct, as opposed to slowly working things out as he goes.
Yet they both have the same flaw, they're so comfortable with getting up close and personal that they become very hittable. Which is why, against conventional wisdom, I don't see this fight being a barn burner. While it's easy to imagine an early stoppage coming via Almeida, it's also the sort of fight in which I can see Sergio avoiding those rough exchanges and fighting on the outside.
What makes this fight so interesting for me is that it's hard to predict, we're looking at two unfinished products. It would be easy to say that Sergio doesn't have any business being in there with Almeida. After all, Pettis hasn't won a fight by submission or ko in his entire UFC career, while Almeida ends nearly every fight early. Pettis will go for a flying knee, but it just won't have the brutal impact of his more explosive potential opponent.
However what Sergio is very good at is controlling the pace of a fight and beating his opponents to the punch, as most recently demonstrated in his bout with John Moraga. While Moraga certainly hits hard and landed some good shots on Pettis at points, he was generally not able to find Pettis, who used superior footwork and positioning to outwork him on route to a decision.
Almeida's awkward stance can potentially make Sergio Pettis even more dangerous with those high kicks. While I doubt that Pettis brings the power to KO Almeida, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility when facing an opponent who is not only hittable but really struggles to defend his jaw line.
Even so, if Pettis fails to maintain distance and fight economically as he did against Alex Carceres, it's not hard at all to see an early stoppage from Almeida who's whirlwind of offensive pressure makes him a scary opponent for anyone.
One thing is for sure though, both of these men could learn a lot from more defensively savvy pressure fighters such as Rafael Dos Anjos, Cody Garbrandt and kickboxers such as Joe Valtellini. These two young fighters are certainly unfinished products and once they learn to attack and defend at the same time, they could truly sit with the elite of the division.
This is a match up that could be a little difficult to make seeing as Sergio can't quite decide if he's a flyweight or a bantamweight, but I don't feel that there is a particularly big difference in size between these two fighters that would make this fight unfair.
These are two young, new and very technical strikers in the same division that would make a great fight in theory, and it's also a fight that I find very hard to call, for reasons I'll get into later.
First let's look at Sergio Pettis:
Height: 5'6
Record: 15 - 2
Most notable opponents: John Moraga (W), Chris Cariaso (W), Alex Carceres (L)
"Even little Sergio is looking for the head kick" ~ Duke Roufus
Sergio has had a rough time. Anthony Pettis' more baby faced brother is frequently compared to him. Common complaints targeted at Sergio are that he is simply not as good as his brother, standing in his shadow and that Anthony was performing better at Sergio's current age (although ironically Anthony once also sported a 15 - 2 record). Sergio's slower, more methodical fights don't live up to the crazy finishes that Showtime provides when he's on his A-game.
In truth though, while they are brothers, training partners and share the same striking coach, they are not that similar a fighter. While Anthony Pettis is the definition of an outside fighter, a man who hates opponents in the pocket and lives and dies by his body kick, Sergio Pettis deals a lot more favourably in the areas that his brother struggles in.
Sergio is perfectly happy to be up close and personal and throws in combination far more than his brother who rarely throws anything outside of a 1-2. This confidence up close has its draw backs, as while Sergio has good pacing when it comes to close-range fighting, he is very hittable. While a fighter like Rafael Dos Anjos will roll with the punches in close range, Sergio tends to just get hit. Needless to say this is what caused his loss against Ryan Benoit and has caused him trouble in many of his recent bouts:
That being said, Sergio is decent at fighting both from a distance and a reach disadvantage as evidenced in his frustrating fight with Alex Carceres in which he was convincingly winning all three rounds before getting submitted late in the third.
Much like you'd expect from a taekwondo black belt, he does have great timing on his high kicks which are on display in every fight, although outside of his first two fights at low level competition, he lacks any finishes with them. While his kicks aren't instant fight enders like Anthony Pettis, who tends to time them for when his opponent is out of position, Sergio is seemingly able to land a head kick more or less whenever he wants, in combination or on the counter.
To put it in simple terms. While Sergio can often seem less impressive than his brother it's often not that he is the inferior striker, but that he is more comfortable fighting at any range than his brother. The downside is that he still lacks the boxing craft to roll with the punches and change levels in order to keep him safer at that range.
Now lets look at Thomas Almeida:
Height: 5'7
Record: 22 - 1
Most notable opponents: Brad Pickett (W), Cody Garbrandt (L)
In some ways Thomas Almeida is a complete contrast to Sergio Pettis. While Sergio always looks technical, the vicious aggression of Almeida can often make him seem like a brawler. Calling him a brawler however, does not do him justice as when he is on the offensive he is so devastating that it hides what a good technician he can be.
Height: 5'7
Record: 22 - 1
Most notable opponents: Brad Pickett (W), Cody Garbrandt (L)
While we all know about his highlight reel finishes, such as his flying knee strikes and grisly elbow KO's he has some very good offensive punching. While I'd hesitate to call him a good scientific boxer, he certainly knows how to make the most out of his combinations. While Brazilian kickboxers are often known for firing single pot shots a-la Alex Pereira, Thomas Almeida is constantly changing levels using combinations favoured by great dutch kickboxers and Muay Mat such as Pornsaneh:
What's important about this combination is not the eye catching low kick but actually the left hook to the liver that drops his opponent and has him falling before the kick even lands. This is what Almeida excels at. Digging to the body and constantly changing levels would make him most coaches dream student.
Those level changes, mixed with his rare ability to box with elbows (something you rarely see in traditional muay thai, let alone MMA) allows him to not only damage opponents along the fence but catch them coming in:
All in all we have a very unique and very frightening offensive striker. Someone who is able to attack in a myriad of different ways. He'll hook to the liver, throw right straights to the sternum and is scarily accurate with devastating, usually risky moves such as flying knees. What makes him terrifying is like Sergio Pettis, his timing is impeccable and he knows the perfect moment to strike.
So what is the downside? Well, not unlike Sergio Pettis he is very hittable. Part of this comes from his innate aggression and tendency to over commit on punches, and the other part is his awkward hand positioning which has left him vulnerable to left hooks throughout his career thus far. These flaws caused him trouble in not only in his lost to current champion Cody Garbrandt, but also in his fight with Brad Pickett, who I would describe as his best opponents to date.
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So with all of this said, how do these fighters compare?
These are two young men with very different approaches to fighting, Sergio Pettis is a boxer puncher, comfortable up close, at a range, at a reach advantage or disadvantage. He'll throw combinations and hooks and happily look for that head kick and nearly always lands it.
By contrast Almeida is a relentless pressure fighter, succeeding areas that Sergio doesn't very often attempt. While Sergio is slow and methodical, Almeida seems to just "do". Almeida is the sort of fighter who has had strategy and technicality drilled into him to the point where he's fighting on instinct, as opposed to slowly working things out as he goes.
Yet they both have the same flaw, they're so comfortable with getting up close and personal that they become very hittable. Which is why, against conventional wisdom, I don't see this fight being a barn burner. While it's easy to imagine an early stoppage coming via Almeida, it's also the sort of fight in which I can see Sergio avoiding those rough exchanges and fighting on the outside.
What makes this fight so interesting for me is that it's hard to predict, we're looking at two unfinished products. It would be easy to say that Sergio doesn't have any business being in there with Almeida. After all, Pettis hasn't won a fight by submission or ko in his entire UFC career, while Almeida ends nearly every fight early. Pettis will go for a flying knee, but it just won't have the brutal impact of his more explosive potential opponent.
However what Sergio is very good at is controlling the pace of a fight and beating his opponents to the punch, as most recently demonstrated in his bout with John Moraga. While Moraga certainly hits hard and landed some good shots on Pettis at points, he was generally not able to find Pettis, who used superior footwork and positioning to outwork him on route to a decision.
Almeida's awkward stance can potentially make Sergio Pettis even more dangerous with those high kicks. While I doubt that Pettis brings the power to KO Almeida, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility when facing an opponent who is not only hittable but really struggles to defend his jaw line.
Even so, if Pettis fails to maintain distance and fight economically as he did against Alex Carceres, it's not hard at all to see an early stoppage from Almeida who's whirlwind of offensive pressure makes him a scary opponent for anyone.
One thing is for sure though, both of these men could learn a lot from more defensively savvy pressure fighters such as Rafael Dos Anjos, Cody Garbrandt and kickboxers such as Joe Valtellini. These two young fighters are certainly unfinished products and once they learn to attack and defend at the same time, they could truly sit with the elite of the division.
